Injuries happen

[theobird]

On 10/9/2017 at 8:02 AM, Frobby said:

First of all, I don't disagree with the global point that games on the DL does not fully reflect the extent to which players' seasons may have been impacted by injuries.    It's not really possible to quantify that, so that's why I just stick to the objective facts of how many games were spent on the DL.

Second, it's not like the Orioles are the only team in the division who had players who were playing hurt.    I don't put the other teams under a microscope like I do with the Orioles, but I'm sure every team could point to some guys who were playing through injuries of various kinds.

Third, Tillman repeatedly said he was healthy, and even if his shoulder issue has somehow affected his arm angle as many believe, it's not clear that he'll ever return to being the old Tillman.   It's not like this was some one-off fluke injury that should not have any impact on 2018.

Fourth, I dispute that Jones played hurt for most of the season, any more than he usually does.    In fact, I'd say that his first half of the season was much healthier than in 2016 and several other seasons I can think of.    He was clearly hurting towards the end of the year.    He plays the game hard, he's getting older and these issues aren't going to go away.

Finally, I'm a bit wary of saying some player had a poor season because he was playing through injuries, as though there's some expectation that the player will do better the next year because he'll be healthier.   Remember the end of last season, when people were saying that Chris Davis had a poor season because he was playing with a very sore hand for much of the year?    

The reason I started this thread six years ago was to show that every team has significant injuries during the season, and the Orioles aren't uniquely affected.    The data this year suggests that, if anything, the O's got off a bit light on the injury front compared to their AL East competitors.     The team's poor record should in no way be excused because of injuries.

Good stuff Frobby!  And this further advances my theory that it is time for Jones to move to RF, a less physically demanding position. And it is a position that I think Jones skills fit perfectly. I really hope that the Orioles find a new CFer and get Jonesy moved over to RF. Maybe a LH hitter to form a loose platoon with Hays in CF?  

[Frobby]

Games lost on the DL in 2018.    As in the past, I did not include anyone who did not play in the major leagues at all in 2018.

Baltimore: Britton 65, Trumbo 66, Rasmus 63, Schoop 21, Beckham 53, Sardinas 59, O'Day 111, Tillman 61, Cashner 15, Bleier 95, Bundy 9, Gentry 42, Marinez 25, Araujo 98.

Boston: Pomeranz 62, Rodriguez 47, Wright 101, Thornburg 88, Pedroia 157, Bogaerts 15, Poyner 9, Holt 10, Velazquez 55, C. Smith 121, Betts 12, B. Johnson 9, Devers 27, Sale 32, Swihart 10, Kinsler 11.

New York: Frazier 96, Bird 40, Hicks 11, McKinney 44, Sabathia 17, Drury 31, Kahnle 40, Cessa 55, Warren 29, Montgomery 133, Tanaka 29, Cole 11, Sanchez 57, Torres 15, Judge 45, Happ 9, Gregorius 16, Chapman 25.

Tampa: Eovaldi 53, Miller 9, Kiermeier 57, Duffy 7, Chirinos 31, Gomez 9, Hechavarria 27, Faria 61, Archer 32, Robertson 62, Venters 24, Font 80, Nuno 49, Roe 30, Ramos 11, Snell 14, Pham 11, M. Smith 8, Perez 30, Mujica 27.

Toronto: Pompey 17, Alford 17, Morales 7, Donaldson 97, Grichuk 29, Pearce 44, Diaz 21, Stroman 52, Garcia 28, Barnes 32, Sanchez 52, Tepera 14, Cruz 74, Estrada 12, Pillar 14, Gurriel 21, Drury 51, Solarte 26, Biagini 9.

Here's the breakdown by team:

Baltimore: 304 position players, 85 starting pitchers, 404 relief pitchers = 793 total.

Boston: 297 position players, 242 starting pitchers, 227 relief pitchers = 766 total.

New York: 365 position players, 178 starting pitchers, 160 relief pitchers = 703 total.

Tampa: 231 position players, 191 starting pitchers, 210 relief pitchers = 632 total.

Toronto: 344 position players, 144 starting pitchers, 129 relief pitchers = 617 total.

So, you can see that while the Orioles lost the most games to injuries of any team in the division, it certainly wasn't wildly out of proportion with other teams.   In fact, in all the years I've been tracking these, this might have been the most evenly-spread year in terms of games missed per team.

One word on methodology:  I counted all of O'Day's missed time, including the time after he was traded to Atlanta, since he was clearly out for the year and his injury impacted his trade value.   On the other hand, I only counted the time that Wilson Ramos missed with the Rays, even though he missed another week or two after being traded to the Phillies, because I figured his trade value wasn't impacted much if at all by his minor injury.   Also, the analysis necessarily misses guys who got hurt in September because there is no 10-day DL in September (unless you're already on it on Sept. 1).  So, late injuries to guys like Cashner and Cobb don't get picked up.

 

[wildbillhiccup]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Games lost on the DL in 2018.    As in the past, I did not include anyone who did not play in the major leagues at all in 2018.

Baltimore: Britton 65, Trumbo 66, Rasmus 63, Schoop 21, Beckham 53, Sardinas 59, O'Day 111, Tillman 61, Cashner 15, Bleier 95, Bundy 9, Gentry 42, Marinez 25, Araujo 98.

Boston: Pomeranz 62, Rodriguez 47, Wright 101, Thornburg 88, Pedroia 157, Bogaerts 15, Poyner 9, Holt 10, Velazquez 55, C. Smith 121, Betts 12, B. Johnson 9, Devers 27, Sale 32, Swihart 10, Kinsler 11.

New York: Frazier 96, Bird 40, Hicks 11, McKinney 44, Sabathia 17, Drury 31, Kahnle 40, Cessa 55, Warren 29, Montgomery 133, Tanaka 29, Cole 11, Sanchez 57, Torres 15, Judge 45, Happ 9, Gregorius 16, Chapman 25.

Tampa: Eovaldi 53, Miller 9, Kiermeier 57, Duffy 7, Chirinos 31, Gomez 9, Hechavarria 27, Faria 61, Archer 32, Robertson 62, Venters 24, Font 80, Nuno 49, Roe 30, Ramos 11, Snell 14, Pham 11, M. Smith 8, Perez 30, Mujica 27.

Toronto: Pompey 17, Alford 17, Morales 7, Donaldson 97, Grichuk 29, Pearce 44, Diaz 21, Stroman 52, Garcia 28, Barnes 32, Sanchez 52, Tepera 14, Cruz 74, Estrada 12, Pillar 14, Gurriel 21, Drury 51, Solarte 26, Biagini 9.

Here's the breakdown by team:

Baltimore: 304 position players, 85 starting pitchers, 404 relief pitchers = 793 total.

Boston: 297 position players, 242 starting pitchers, 227 relief pitchers = 766 total.

New York: 365 position players, 178 starting pitchers, 160 relief pitchers = 703 total.

Tampa: 231 position players, 191 starting pitchers, 210 relief pitchers = 632 total.

Toronto: 344 position players, 144 starting pitchers, 129 relief pitchers = 617 total.

So, you can see that while the Orioles lost the most games to injuries of any team in the division, it certainly wasn't wildly out of proportion with other teams.   In fact, in all the years I've been tracking these, this might have been the most evenly-spread year in terms of games missed per team.

One word on methodology:  I counted all of O'Day's missed time, including the time after he was traded to Atlanta, since he was clearly out for the year and his injury impacted his trade value.   On the other hand, I only counted the time that Wilson Ramos missed with the Rays, even though he missed another week or two after being traded to the Phillies, because I figured his trade value wasn't impacted much if at all by his minor injury.   Also, the analysis necessarily misses guys who got hurt in September because there is no 10-day DL in September (unless you're already on it on Sept. 1).  So, late injuries to guys like Cashner and Cobb don't get picked up.

 

Is losing Trumbo, Rasmus, Tillman, Beckham, etc. really a loss? (rubs chin)

I'm just saying, it's very interesting to look at the "quality" of players each team lost due to injury. I would most certainly rank the Orioles dead last in that regard so that certainly offsets their bloated total days lost number significantly. 

Bottom line. The Orioles didn't lose last season because of injuries. They lost because they sucked. 

[Frobby]

29 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

Is losing Trumbo, Rasmus, Tillman, Beckham, etc. really a loss? (rubs chin)

I'm just saying, it's very interesting to look at the "quality" of players each team lost due to injury. I would most certainly rank the Orioles dead last in that regard so that certainly offsets their bloated total days lost number significantly. 

Bottom line. The Orioles didn't lose last season because of injuries. They lost because they sucked. 

Completely agree that the O’s didn’t lose due to injuries.   And one reason I list all the names, instead of just giving totals, is so that everyone can see who got hurt who was actually important, and also think back on the legitimacy of the injuries.   For example, it’s questionable that Tillman was really hurt; arguably the team just found some excuse to park him on the DL.   But this stuff does go on a bit for every team and they all have unimportant (or just bad) players who add to their injury totals.

BP used to do an analysis of how much WARP (their version of WAR) was lost by injuries, but I could never replicate something like that.   

[wildbillhiccup]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Completely agree that the O’s didn’t lose due to injuries.   And one reason I list all the names, instead of just giving totals, is so that everyone can see who got hurt who was actually important, and also think back on the legitimacy of the injuries.   For example, it’s questionable that Tillman was really hurt; arguably the team just found some excuse to park him on the DL.   But this stuff does go on a bit for every team and they all have unimportant (or just bad) players who add to their injury totals.

BP used to do an analysis of how much WARP (their version of WAR) was lost by injuries, but I could never replicate something like that.   

It was good stuff. I didn't say it before, but I appreciate the time and the effort that went into the research. 

[Frobby]

2019 Totals

I'm planning for this to be my last annual installment in this thread where I break down the injuries in the entire AL East, though I might keep doing it for the Orioles.    When I started this after the 2010 season, I was trying to dispel the idea advanced by certain posters that the Orioles' poor performance was in substantial part due to injuries.    I was trying to show that all teams have injuries and the O's had not been uniquely stricken.   I think that has proved out in spades over the years.      In this post I'll do the usual breakdown of games lost for 2019, and then in a separate post I'll discuss some trends that have appeared over the entire decade.

Baltimore: Cobb 153, Trumbo 136, Wynns 18, Karns 98, Bleier 31, Davis 7, Smith 33, Lucas 20, Means 21, Rogers 82, Stewart 39, Bundy 9, Armstrong 8 = 233 position players, 183 starting pitchers, 239 relievers = 655 games lost.

Boston: Hernandez 25, Pedroia 154, Pearce 112, Holt 44, B. Johnson 90, Nunez 14, Eovaldi 79, Wei-Lin 51, Price 30, Thornburg 42, Moreland 48, H. Velazquez 24, Hembree 87, Wright 70, Chavis 41, Sale 37 = 489 players, 146 starting pitchers, 313 relief pitchers = 948 games lost.

New York: Gregorius 61, Betances 160, Severino 151, Heller 146, Hicks 92, Andujar 28, Stanton 141, Sabathia 48, Tulowitzki 95, Sanchez 27, Bird 147, Judge 54, Frazier 11, Paxton 23, Loaisigna 93, Barrett 111, German 21, Morales 12, Maybin 27, Voit 38, Gardner 6, Hale 80, Encarnacion 30, Holder 48, Tarpley 29, Estrada 21, Urshela 8, Tauchman 9 = 807 position players, 393 starting pitchers, 638 relief pitchers = 1,838 games lost.

Tampa: Duffy 103, De Leon 86, Banda 94, Wendle 82, Snell 58, Meadows 15, Wood 12, Zunino 18, Glasnow 108, Bemboom 55, Diaz 79, Robertson 33, Castillo 14, Choi 6, Lowe 69, Alvarado 60, Roe 9, Stanek 10, Kiermaier 8, Chirinos 41, Garcia 9, Milner 16 = 467 position players, 207 starting pitchers, 301 relievers = 975 games lost.

Toronto: Pompey 102, Tepera 110, Phelps 71, Davis 24, Buchholz 101, Borucki 156, Richard 93, Shoemaker 140, Mayza 17, Waguespack 33, Luciano 79, Jackson 26, Smoak 9, Thornton 10, Maile 43, Kingham 20, Gurriel 33 = 211 position players, 377 starting pitchers, 479 relief pitchers = 1,067 games lost.

Summary:

BAL 655 (233 position players, 183 starting pitchers, 239 relief pitchers)

BOS 948 (489 position players, 146 starting pitchers, 313 relief pitchers)

NYY 1838 (807 position players, 393 starting pitchers, 638 relief pitchers)

TBR 975 (467 position players, 207 starting pitchers, 301 relief pitchers)

TOR 1067 (211 position players, 377 starting pitchers 479 relief pitchers)

The Yankee total of 1,838 games missed is by far the highest season total for any team in the ten years in which I've been keeping track, and included some very significant players.    The fact that they won 103 games anyway is astounding, and a real testament to the depth of their organization.   As to the O's, the fact that they were the healthiest team in the division obviously did them very little good.   

 

[Frobby]

2010-19 Totals

BAL 6,040 (3,303 position players, 954 starting pitchers, 1,783 relief pitchers)

BOS 8,386 (4,051 position players, 1,558 starting pitchers, 2,777 relief pitchers)

NYY 8,969 (4,322 position players, 1,929 starting pitchers, 2,718 relief pitchers)

TBR 6,270 (3,044 position players, 1,544 starting pitchers, 1,682 relief pitchers)

TOR 7,051 (3,095 position players, 1,841 starting pitchers, 2,115 relief pitchers)

 

As you can see, the Orioles were the healthiest team in the division over the decade, and strikingly, their starting pitchers were by far the healthiest.    The Yankees were the least healthy, and so were their starting pitchers.   None of that made much difference.   

There are a couple of things I wanted to mention.    First, there were far more injuries in the second half of the decade than the first.    All five teams had more in the second five years:

BAL 3003/3037

BOS 3947/4439

NYY 3970/4999

TBR 2267/4003

TOR 3224/3827

I don't know why, but it's getting harder to stay healthy.

Another thing I thought was interesting is that the two teams whose position players missed the least time are the two teams that play their home games on artificial turf.    I've often heard people say how terrible it is to play on artificial turf and how it causes more injuries, wear and tear, etc.     Ten years of evidence does not support that.  

It's been interesting to follow all this over the last decade, but also a lot of work, and I've had about enough.    Bottom line, the Orioles have not been particularly injury-prone over the last decade; in fact, it's been quite the opposite.   2014, the year we won the division, was almost miraculously healthy even though we lost Wieters for most of the year and Manny for half of it.    Our entire pitching staff missed 68 games due to injury that year, and the offense missed only 208 games total.

[Darkhawk]

Thanks for the research, very much appreciated. This might be explained earlier in the decade long post but are the totals based on time spent on the DL/IL or total games missed due to injury even if a IL stint wasn't required?  

[Frobby]

21 minutes ago, Darkhawk said:

Thanks for the research, very much appreciated. This might be explained earlier in the decade long post but are the totals based on time spent on the DL/IL or total games missed due to injury even if a IL stint wasn't required?  

Just DL/IL.    There’s really no way to track anything else.    

Also, as I’ve explained before, these totals don’t include anyone who missed the entire season with injuries.    So, Dellin Betances counts for 160 days lost to injury, but Jacoby Ellsbury counts for zero.   
 

[Satyr3206]

Hats off to you. 10 years is a long time. Very interesting numbers and data. Thank you.

[Darkhawk]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Just DL/IL.    There’s really no way to track anything else.    

Also, as I’ve explained before, these totals don’t include anyone who missed the entire season with injuries.    So, Dellin Betances counts for 160 days lost to injury, but Jacoby Ellsbury counts for zero.   
 

Do you think part of the reason there were more games missed in the second half of the decade was because of the shorter DL/IL requirements? Teams might have been more likely to stick a guy on the IL since they wouldn't lose them for as long  I can't remember when the ten day and 7 day DL/IL was put into effect. 

Note: Looked it up and the 10 day DL came into effect in 2017 but the 7 day DL has been around since 2011. 

[Frobby]

27 minutes ago, Darkhawk said:

Do you think part of the reason there were more games missed in the second half of the decade was because of the shorter DL/IL requirements? Teams might have been more likely to stick a guy on the IL since they wouldn't lose them for as long  I can't remember when the ten day and 7 day DL/IL was put into effect. 

Note: Looked it up and the 10 day DL came into effect in 2017 but the 7 day DL has been around since 2011. 

I think the shorter DL is a factor, but long DL stints seem to me up as well.    I thought about trying to break down how many stints there were of different lengths, but perhaps that’s a project for another day.

[DrungoHazewood]

17 hours ago, Frobby said:

The Yankee total of 1,838 games missed is by far the highest season total for any team in the ten years in which I've been keeping track, and included some very significant players.    The fact that they won 103 games anyway is astounding, and a real testament to the depth of their organization.  

It's a real testament to the value of essentially unlimited resources.

[BRobinsonfan]

21 hours ago, Frobby said:

2019 Totals

I'm planning for this to be my last annual installment in this thread where I break down the injuries in the entire AL East, though I might keep doing it for the Orioles.    When I started this after the 2010 season, I was trying to dispel the idea advanced by certain posters that the Orioles' poor performance was in substantial part due to injuries.    I was trying to show that all teams have injuries and the O's had not been uniquely stricken.   I think that has proved out in spades over the years.      In this post I'll do the usual breakdown of games lost for 2019, and then in a separate post I'll discuss some trends that have appeared over the entire decade.

Baltimore: Cobb 153, Trumbo 136, Wynns 18, Karns 98, Bleier 31, Davis 7, Smith 33, Lucas 20, Means 21, Rogers 82, Stewart 39, Bundy 9, Armstrong 8 = 233 position players, 183 starting pitchers, 239 relievers = 655 games lost.

Boston: Hernandez 25, Pedroia 154, Pearce 112, Holt 44, B. Johnson 90, Nunez 14, Eovaldi 79, Wei-Lin 51, Price 30, Thornburg 42, Moreland 48, H. Velazquez 24, Hembree 87, Wright 70, Chavis 41, Sale 37 = 489 players, 146 starting pitchers, 313 relief pitchers = 948 games lost.

New York: Gregorius 61, Betances 160, Severino 151, Heller 146, Hicks 92, Andujar 28, Stanton 141, Sabathia 48, Tulowitzki 95, Sanchez 27, Bird 147, Judge 54, Frazier 11, Paxton 23, Loaisigna 93, Barrett 111, German 21, Morales 12, Maybin 27, Voit 38, Gardner 6, Hale 80, Encarnacion 30, Holder 48, Tarpley 29, Estrada 21, Urshela 8, Tauchman 9 = 807 position players, 393 starting pitchers, 638 relief pitchers = 1,838 games lost.

Tampa: Duffy 103, De Leon 86, Banda 94, Wendle 82, Snell 58, Meadows 15, Wood 12, Zunino 18, Glasnow 108, Bemboom 55, Diaz 79, Robertson 33, Castillo 14, Choi 6, Lowe 69, Alvarado 60, Roe 9, Stanek 10, Kiermaier 8, Chirinos 41, Garcia 9, Milner 16 = 467 position players, 207 starting pitchers, 301 relievers = 975 games lost.

Toronto: Pompey 102, Tepera 110, Phelps 71, Davis 24, Buchholz 101, Borucki 156, Richard 93, Shoemaker 140, Mayza 17, Waguespack 33, Luciano 79, Jackson 26, Smoak 9, Thornton 10, Maile 43, Kingham 20, Gurriel 33 = 211 position players, 377 starting pitchers, 479 relief pitchers = 1,067 games lost.

Summary:

BAL 655 (233 position players, 183 starting pitchers, 239 relief pitchers)

BOS 948 (489 position players, 146 starting pitchers, 313 relief pitchers)

NYY 1838 (807 position players, 393 starting pitchers, 638 relief pitchers)

TBR 975 (467 position players, 207 starting pitchers, 301 relief pitchers)

TOR 1067 (211 position players, 377 starting pitchers 479 relief pitchers)

The Yankee total of 1,838 games missed is by far the highest season total for any team in the ten years in which I've been keeping track, and included some very significant players.    The fact that they won 103 games anyway is astounding, and a real testament to the depth of their organization.   As to the O's, the fact that they were the healthiest team in the division obviously did them very little good.   

 

One could make a compelling argument that had Chris Davis missed 105 more games due to injuries the O's would have a better won/loss record.  

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, BRobinsonfan said:

One could make a compelling argument that had Chris Davis missed 105 more games due to injuries the O's would have a better won/loss record.  

The O’s had a .333 winning percentage when he played, and .333 when he didn’t play.    .337 when he started, and .329 when he didn’t start.    Basically, it was a non-factor.    Now, if they’d given Mountcastle his spot at some point, maybe that would have been different.    But I doubt it would have been very significant.