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Here is a Problem I have with WAR


waroriole

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I find WAR offensive. Quantifying the production value of a player against the avg AAA? Absurd. The numbers never seem to correlate with the eye. Guts .6 WAR? Really? He is the ace, the stopper. We just don't score for him. Really? WAR is a bull crap stat IMHO. Too inconsistent to have much value. If an offense is scoring for a lesser pitcher, he has a higher WAR then Guts. Absurd. I hate WAR.

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Britton has been worth 1.0 fWAR this year.

Tillman has been worth 0.9 fWAR this year.

Guthrie has been worth 0.6 fWAR this year.

One of these things is not like the other.

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/misc/war/

- Pitchers – Where offensive WAR used wRAA and UZR, pitching WAR uses FIP. Based on how many innings a pitcher threw, FIP is turned into runs form, converted to represent value above replacement level, and is then converted from runs to wins.

FIP:

3.80

3.43

4.33

Respectively.

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Fangraphs WAR uses Fielding Independent Pitching, which ignores the results of the actual at-bats and games, and instead only looks at walks, strikeouts, and home runs (with some modifications).

IMO, it's a pretty bad system, since it uses predictive stats to generate a metric that sounds descriptive.

Baseball-reference uses a different calculation for pitcher WAR that you may prefer:

Guthrie: 1.5 WAR this season

Tillman: 0.5 WAR this season

Britton: 2.5 WAR this season

(To me, that looks a lot more in line with, you know, the results of how they've pitched.)

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Fangraphs WAR uses Fielding Independent Pitching, which ignores the results of the actual at-bats and games, and instead only looks at walks, strikeouts, and home runs (with some modifications).

IMO, it's a pretty bad system, since it uses predictive stats to generate a metric that sounds descriptive.

Baseball-reference uses a different calculation for pitcher WAR that you may prefer:

Guthrie: 1.5 WAR this season

Tillman: 0.5 WAR this season

Britton: 2.5 WAR this season

(To me, that looks a lot more in line with, you know, the results of how they've pitched.)

Right, I think alot of things that fangraphs and Dave Cameron do are just wrong. What's shocking is their unwavering confidence in everything they do.

I do agree that baseball reference offers a more realistic appraisal of their performance.

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I find WAR offensive. Quantifying the production value of a player against the avg AAA? Absurd. The numbers never seem to correlate with the eye. Guts .6 WAR? Really? He is the ace, the stopper. We just don't score for him. Really? WAR is a bull crap stat IMHO. Too inconsistent to have much value. If an offense is scoring for a lesser pitcher, he has a higher WAR then Guts. Absurd. I hate WAR.

I'm not here to defend WAR, but I don't think this is true at all. Arrieta has 6 wins to Guthrie's 2 wins. Guthrie has a 1.5 WAR and Arrieta has a 1.0 WAR (according to BRef, which also has Britton at 2.5 WAR).

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I'm not here to defend WAR, but I don't think this is true at all. Arrieta has 6 wins to Guthrie's 2 wins. Guthrie has a 1.5 WAR and Arrieta has a 1.0 WAR (according to BRef, which also has Britton at 2.5 WAR).

Yeah, I'm talking about Fangraphs, or fWAR.

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Fangraphs WAR uses Fielding Independent Pitching, which ignores the results of the actual at-bats and games...

Or, it uses the things a pitcher can actually control to judge how well they are pitching. I mean, you can argue the value of the number but you sound like Joe Morgan's less-stat-friendly brother.

...and instead only looks at walks, strikeouts, and home runs (with some modifications).

IMO, it's a pretty bad system, since it uses predictive stats to generate a metric that sounds descriptive.

Baseball-reference uses a different calculation for pitcher WAR that you may prefer:

Guthrie: 1.5 WAR this season

Tillman: 0.5 WAR this season

Britton: 2.5 WAR this season

(To me, that looks a lot more in line with, you know, the results of how they've pitched.)

For Pitchers.

--R pitcher's actual runs allowed

--Rrep runs allowed by a replacement level pitcher given this pitcher's defense, park, strength of opponents, and role (replacement level is different for starters and relievers). The number presented includes the defensive component, Rdef, already.

--Rdef runs above or below average for this pitcher's team defense. The team's overall defense weighted by the percent of balls in play allowed by this pitcher.

--aLI is the average leverage index this pitcher pitched in. To convert RAR to WAR, the pitcher's runs above replacement is weighted by the average of their leverage and 1.00 (due to bullpen chaining). Average leverage is 1.00. Above 1.00 includes high leverage and below 1.00 indicates lower leverage.

--RAR runs saved above replacement. This is not weighted by leverage yet.

--WAR RAR/(Runs per win), Runs per win varies with the run scoring environment of the pitcher and how that pitcher changes the environment. Typically around 10 runs per win.

It also uses a lot more information, so its probably going to come out with a closer result to what we think we see.

The REAL problem with WAR is that there isn't a single way of figuring it. Both Baseball Reference and Fangraphs have different numbers going in, even if at the end they tend to come to a similar agreement, so sometimes you get wild swings like this.

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Or, it uses the things a pitcher can actually control to judge how well they are pitching. I mean, you can argue the value of the number but you sound like Joe Morgan's less-stat-friendly brother.

So, are you saying that a pitcher has no control over whether a batter hits a ball off the top of the wall or whether he hits a slow roller back to the mound? I understand there are other factors than the 3 mentioned, but those are the biggest components right? It's hard to put much stock in a system that gives me those answers.

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