Roch on Jones

[Say O!]

I don't care if you are the starting CFer...It doesn't matter.

And of course he would consider it...if you gave him a contract that he isn't worth.

For someone who talks about how we need 5+ WAR players, I have no idea why you want to give so much money to a 2-3 WAR player.

And this is where there are two schools of thought:

1. Jones is who he is (2-3 WAR player) and that is all he will ever be. Any contract with AAV > $10M is overpaying for production that will never come.

2. Jones is capable of more (4-5+ WAR player) and he will reach that peak within the next 2 years. A contract with AAV = $10M is a good investment.

And while these may be binary outcomes, there certainly has to be some probability associated with each. Is there a 25% chance he becomes player #2, or is that probability closer to 50%, or maybe higher? Depending on where someone believes the probability lies will dictate the risk/reward inherent in the contract extension.

[Sports Guy]

And this is where there are two schools of thought:

1. Jones is who he is (2-3 WAR player) and that is all he will ever be. Any contract with AAV > $10M is overpaying for production that will never come.

2. Jones is capable of more (4-5+ WAR player) and he will reach that peak within the next 2 years. A contract with AAV = $10M is a good investment.

And while these may be binary outcomes, there certainly has to be some probability associated with each. Is there a 25% chance he becomes player #2, or is that probability closer to 50%, or maybe higher? Depending on where someone believes the probability lies will dictate the risk/reward inherent in the contract extension.

I see zero evidence that suggests that he could CONSISTENTLY be a 4+ WAR player. I do agree that it is likely to happen once or twice in his career but he will usually be that 2-3 WAR guy.

[Say O!]

And I'm in the 50% or better camp that he becomes player number 2.

When evaluating Jones, a lot is made mention of his season ending stats. But we have seen performance over a couple of months where Jones posts well over .800 OPS and plays great defense. Last season, Jones had an OPS of .830 on Aug 20th but struggled to the finish with injuries. What if he posted that for a full season and played averagish defense? Depending on league context, that could very well be a 4-5 WAR player.

[Sports Guy]

And I'm in the 50% or better camp that he becomes player number 2.

When evaluating Jones, a lot is made mention of his season ending stats. But we have seen performance over a couple of months where Jones posts well over .800 OPS and plays great defense. Last season, Jones had an OPS of .830 on Aug 20th but struggled to the finish with injuries. What if he posted that for a full season and played averagish defense? Depending on league context, that could very well be a 4-5 WAR player.

Right..and as I said, I do expect him to put up 1-2 years where he does that.

But the reason you talk about his ending stats because its a larger sample size.

Jones is the type of player that can carry a team when he is hot. The problem is, he can't stay consistent because his discipline and approach at the plate is poor....and his defense isn't consistently great either...he is average at best.

Adding those 2 things together and I don't see how anyone can say he will consistently be a 4+ WAR player.

Maybe if he moved to LF and showed GG ability over there, while maintaining an 800+ OPS, he could become that guy...but I doubt we will see him moved to LF while he is here.

[GoldGlove21]

The problem with WAR here is that we are assuming that Jones will continue to play defense that is statistically below average. If his defense ever improved to where he was statistically above average than his WAR would go well into the 4's based on his offensive capabilities.

I look at Jones and see the following as his real issues:

1.) His inability to get on base via a walk. The most walks he has had in a season was 36 (twice), but he has also walked 23 times (twice) and 29 times in a season. Even his minor league numbers showed a low walk total compared to his abilities offensively.

2.) His defense is debated, but the purpose of WAR it is a concern.

I think that teams can ignore #2 and some believe that he is above average, but number #1 is the reaosn why he is not going to be a superstar IMO.

[Sports Guy]

The problem with WAR here is that we are assuming that Jones will continue to play defense that is statistically below average. If his defense ever improved to where he was statistically above average than his WAR would go well into the 4's based on his offensive capabilities.

I look at Jones and see the following as his real issues:

1.) His inability to get on base via a walk. The most walks he has had in a season was 36 (twice), but he has also walked 23 times (twice) and 29 times in a season. Even his minor league numbers showed a low walk total compared to his abilities offensively.

2.) His defense is debated, but the purpose of WAR it is a concern.

I think that teams can ignore #2 and some believe that he is above average, but number #1 is the reaosn why he is not going to be a superstar IMO.

Well, I don't think his defense is as bad as UZR shows but I also don't think its any better than average either.

The problem with hoping his defense gets better is that his defensive issues seem to be tied into his gain in weight and muscle. That seems to have limited his range.

When he first came here, when he weighed less, he looked like he was going to be a GGer. Now? Not so much.

[DrungoHazewood]

I think it's interesting to look at Alfonso Soriano when thinking about Jones. I'm not saying Jones is going to be Soriano, but there are enough similarities to give you a template for what Jones will have to do to have a 4+ win season. Both guys have problems controlling the strike zone, neither is loved by defensive metrics (to put it politely), both hit .270-ish. Soriano has a perceived advantage on the bases, but the numbers don't really bear that out.

So anyway, Soriano has bounced back and forth from a 4-5 win guy to near useless. He's the 4-5 win guy when he puts up a 130 OPS+, plays 155 games, and isn't a total butcher in the field. I think Jones has that in his reach. But like Soriano, I don't think it's going to be every year. Too many bad habits, and having to constantly adjust to them for that.

[GoldGlove21]

Well, I don't think his defense is as bad as UZR shows but I also don't think its any better than average either.

The problem with hoping his defense gets better is that his defensive issues seem to be tied into his gain in weight and muscle. That seems to have limited his range.

When he first came here, when he weighed less, he looked like he was going to be a GGer. Now? Not so much.

That is when a good team mitigates his bulk and moves him to left where he could easily be above average defensively IMO.

[El Gordo]

I think we have seen enough of Jones to pretty much know that he is what he is. If his plate discipolin, base running, and defensive limitations were going to improve significantly, we would have seen some progress by now. I think 3 WAR is about his ceiling and a 4/36 M extension would be more than fair. Personally I'd rather trade him for pitching, but my guess is that would have happened by now, if PA wasn't so resistent to the idea.

[Sports Guy]

I think Jones is only going to get better defensively. We also should not forget about his cannon for an arm - led the team in outfield assists last year.

Why??????

[Say O!]

That is when a good team mitigates his bulk and moves him to left where he could easily be above average defensively IMO.

At the end of the day, moving along the defensive spectrum is at best a wash.

Tango's positional adjustments show a 10 run adjustment moving from CF to LF (link to fangraphs article)

So if Jones moves from a -5 run defender in CF to a +5 run defender in LF, the positional runs adjustment makes the move a wash in terms of runs & WAR.

[Sports Guy]

At the end of the day, moving along the defensive spectrum is at best a wash.

Tango's positional adjustments show a 10 run adjustment moving from CF to LF (link to fangraphs article)

So if Jones moves from a -5 run defender in CF to a +5 run defender in LF, the positional runs adjustment makes the move a wash in terms of runs & WAR.

Correct...the question is, can he be a much better defender in LF than CF and have a greater jump than 10 runs?

[Frobby]

I think we have seen enough of Jones to pretty much know that he is what he is. If his plate discipolin, base running, and defensive limitations were going to improve significantly, we would have seen some progress by now. I think 3 WAR is about his ceiling and a 4/36 M extension would be more than fair. Personally I'd rather trade him for pitching, but my guess is that would have happened by now, if PA wasn't so resistent to the idea.

I think we've seen improvements in certain areas. Jones had career highs in doubles, homers, stolen bases and OPS+ last year. It was the best offensive season of his career, and frankly it might have been better except he hurt his thumb and his numbers went down in September as a result. If I were a betting man, I'd say I like Jones' chances to have an even better offensive year in 2012.

Defensively, I thought Jones was better in 2011 than in 2010, though he did make several careless errors. He set a career high for assists, and generally, I thought he did a better job of positioning himself to make throws. I felt he did a better job of not letting balls get over his head. There is room for improvement, for sure.

In the end, I feel Jones still has some upside, though his plate discipline will always be a problem for him.

[Scrat1]

Pull the band aid. Trade him.

Unless we get an extremely favorable deal, like Hardy's, extending Jones is basically damning this team to mediocrity.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

Pull the band aid. Trade him.

Unless we get an extremely favorable deal, like Hardy's, extending Jones is basically damning this team to mediocrity.

That seem like a bit of an overstatement. Signing him to a 4y/40m kind of deal would probably be pretty favorable for us- especially if we could move him to LF. He's 26, and likely has a couple more All-Star seasons coming over the next few years.