Anyone worried about Machado's bat?

[Can_of_corn]

It's not entirely about what he is or isn't doing. It's about what he represents. Teams know they can no longer just bunt it down to third base for an automatic hit. They know that we have a real 3b who can gun out even the fastest of runners. It takes away an option for a hitter in the box who is trying to get on base.

Yes' date=' he doesn't handle that many extra plays or make that many extra players per game, but that doesn't take into account the fact that teams are much less likely to bunt or even try to bunt for a hit against Machado than they were against Wilson.

That counts for something and it isn't measured in this statistic. Also the error rates are significant as well.[/quote']

I guess I wasn't paying attention. Were teams bunting on Betemit at some extraordinary rate?

BTW Machado needs to work on the accuracy of his throws from third. Reynolds should not have to make that many toe touch dives for balls. If Davis or Betemit had been a first these last few weeks Machado would have a significant amount of throwing errors (imo).

[DrungoHazewood]

Do you think every stat that has ever been invented is worthwhile? Are you one of THOSE guys. Watch the game and watch the way they play defense. It might actually be Pujols to Izturis close.....that is how bad Betemit was in the field.

I have to say that if you think the difference between Betemit and Manny's glove is 100 runs I'm going to ask if you're really sure you've been watching the Orioles. Or even baseball. It strains credibility (to put it mildly) to think a third baseman's defense could be like adding a whole MVP.

[Hallas]

Machado's minor league stats suggest he will draw his share of walks once he is fully adjusted to MLB. That may take another year.

From what I can tell, having a good "batting eye" doesn't directly translate to walks. Nick has one of the best o-swing rates in the league, which helps his walk rate. But if were strictly about batting eye, he would be walking more than 9% of the time. Pitchers take their chances with Nick. Maybe because they think he's a singles hitter. (He's not.)

I haven't done the math to back this up, but I think being a power hitter more directly correlates with walks than o-swing. How else would an in-his-prime Vlad or Josh Hamilton draw walks at the rate they do?

[Hallas]

It's not entirely about what he is or isn't doing. It's about what he represents. Teams know they can no longer just bunt it down to third base for an automatic hit. They know that we have a real 3b who can gun out even the fastest of runners. It takes away an option for a hitter in the box who is trying to get on base.

Yes' date=' he doesn't handle that many extra plays or make that many extra players per game, but that doesn't take into account the fact that teams are much less likely to bunt or even try to bunt for a hit against Machado than they were against Wilson.

That counts for something and it isn't measured in this statistic. Also the error rates are significant as well.[/quote']

I think you're overestimating the number of chances a given fielder (like Manny) gets, and underestimating the number of runs saved by a made/missed chance. Just using wOBA, it's clear that the difference between an out vs a hit is somewhere between .9 and 1.2 runs. (Higher value is for xbh, which are more likely at 3B.) So if Manny saves 1 play every 4 or 5 games, that's what, 35-45 plays over the course of a season? That's 35-50 runs, or roughly the difference between Mike Trout and Adam Jones. Isn't that a pretty big difference?

[El Gordo]

It is an undeniable statistical fact that Machado handles fewer than three chances a game. You simply can't make several more plays per game than another guy when your total chances are that low. Your position on this issue just makes no logical sense.

Since the difference in plays per game is marginal, why do you suppose they called him up or at least why don't they platoon him with Betemit, since statistically there is little difference in their defense?

[DrungoHazewood]

Since the difference in plays per game is marginal, why do you suppose they called him up or at least why don't they platoon him with Betemit, since statistically there is little difference in their defense?

Who said a quarter of a play a game is marginal? Over a full season that might be 2 wins. For a defensive contribution that's huge.

[Can_of_corn]

Since the difference in plays per game is marginal, why do you suppose they called him up or at least why don't they platoon him with Betemit, since statistically there is little difference in their defense?

As I clearly stated earlier .27 with a lower error rate is not insignificant and it is certainly not marginal.

Just because it isn't some unrealistic invented number does not mean the change was performance neutral to the O's.

[El Gordo]

Who said a quarter of a play a game is marginal? Over a full season that might be 2 wins. For a defensive contribution that's huge.

But we aren't talking about a full season we are talking about maybe 50 games, if you don't platoon, many fewer if you do. What's the advantage there?

[CA-ORIOLE]

I think you're overestimating the number of chances a given fielder (like Manny) gets, and underestimating the number of runs saved by a made/missed chance. Just using wOBA, it's clear that the difference between an out vs a hit is somewhere between .9 and 1.2 runs. (Higher value is for xbh, which are more likely at 3B.) So if Manny saves 1 play every 4 or 5 games, that's what, 35-45 plays over the course of a season? That's 35-50 runs, or roughly the difference between Mike Trout and Adam Jones. Isn't that a pretty big difference?

Yeah, this isn't right. You're either double counting or are confused about the difference between offensive and defensive values. The value of a single is about .45runs. You're correct that a ball down the line would be worth more than .45 runs but it'll likely be closer to the value of a double, maybe .6-.7 runs or so. Defense looks at hit location data not the actual results. Also, I'm pretty sure an infield single is weighted less than .45 runs for defense (and not differentiated for offense). Oufielders will be assigned the higher weighted averages on missed plays as more of their misses will turn into extra base hits. An IF isn't going to save anywhere near a whole run on a single play. There just aren't enough down the line pays to make that big of a difference unless your corner fielder is unbelievably stupid and inept.

A sixty run differential (6 wins) would be a pretty epic difference between a super elite performance a super horrible one (i.e Reynolds last year and maybe one of Brooks Robinson's best performances). More realistically the difference between very bad and very good would be in the 35-50 run differential range.