Jim Johnson Today, 2013

[MagicBird]

I wonder if any pitcher with 45 saves has ever taken as much heat as JJ.

The # of saves is NOT the issue.

Your logic here is the same as saying the guy that murdered 9 old ladies isnt really all that bad because he has also saved 45 old ladies crossing the street from getting hit by drunk drivers. So you give him a pass?

[Rene88]

The # of saves is NOT the issue.

Your logic here is the same as saying the guy that murdered 9 old ladies isnt really all that bad because he has also saved 45 old ladies crossing the street from getting hit by drunk drivers. So you give him a pass?

We agree I think but you lost me with the killing of old ladies:)

[mark_beckens]

Yeah, I gotta say, I can follow along when you talk about how if JJ was an average closer, we'd have a relatively secure wild card slot right now.

League average save % 912 saves 1066 save opportunites 86%

Johnson 45/54 83%

If he was 46/54 he'd be 85.2% 47/54 = 87%

[mark_beckens]

The # of saves is NOT the issue.

Your logic here is the same as saying the guy that murdered 9 old ladies isnt really all that bad because he has also saved 45 old ladies crossing the street from getting hit by drunk drivers. So you give him a pass?

That's just wrong, very very wrong!

[mark_beckens]

How many times did that happen?

It's hypothetical!

[Yardball85]

But I see everyone analyzing Bucks moves, DD's moves, RISP, and so forth...

Here is my take, and it is much simpler. This team is very similar to last year, and the combination of an offense that makes it power almost exclusively through the long ball, and weak starting pitching means that they are going to play a lot of close games. It is the makeup of the team.

The difference is, we cannot close games this year plain and simple. Whose job is it to close games? Jim Johnson.

What I am saying is we can go crazy blaming people, but the simple facts are if JJ only blew 4-5 saves this year, and held a few tied games where they were, we would be in the wild card. I am going to go a step further and say that his failures have also taken a toll on the team emotionally that you can't show statistically. Just the general funk, and bad mojo 8 blown saves, and a few tied games lost by one person causes is at least worth 4-5 more losses IMO. It makes the whole team press and really ruins the vibe.

I'm actually with you on this thread. While this is not the entire reason the team is not as good as last year, it is true that if this ONE player posted the same or similar statistics to last season, the Orioles would likely have the second wild card.

This also is not a bash Jim Johnson thread - some of the things I have seen on this board about Jim Johnson make this look like a birthday poem for him.

[birdcrazy]

I am not talking about all the losses he did not cause however. I am talking about the losses he did cause.

That is the problem with this whole argument. Everyone wants to go down the "It's a team game, lets spread the blame" BS because JJ is a likable person. He has been one of my favorites on the team also for a long time. The reality however is, if he performed not even at last years level, but just an average closer level we would be in the playoffs. If you think people in the clubhouse don't think that (even though they would never say it), are you na?ve.

Lastly, as I said before, people ignore things like emotions, which cannot be measured by WAR. Who here does not think a team plays more confident when they know the back part of their bullpen is shut down.

Sure, and the same thing can be said for all of the losses that JJ didn't cause. If they could have pulled 4-5 wins out of any of those, the team would be in the wild card.

Look, I'm not saying that JJ isn't deserving of a decent amount of blame, here, but the O's have lost what, 70 games? I'm sure you can go through those 70 losses and find a multitude of games that the O's should have won but didn't, that have nothing to do with JJ.

[birdcrazy]

I wonder if any pitcher with 45 saves has ever taken as much heat as JJ.

Has anyone with 45 saves also been allowed to blow 9? Most closers who start to blow that many saves get demoted.

[mark_beckens]

Has anyone with 45 saves also been allowed to blow 9? Most closers who start to blow that many saves get demoted.

http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php/131358-Jim-Johnson-Today-2013?p=3194833#post3194833

Trevor Hoffman blew 7 saves 5 times in his career

Mariano Rivera blew 9, 7 and 6 saves

Lee Smith blew 12, 9 twice, 8 three times and 7 twice and 6 4 times in his career

Dennis Eckersley blew 10, 9, 8 twice, 7 and 6 twice in his career

Bruce Sutter blew 14, 12, 10, 9 5 times, 8 and 7 in his career

John Wetteland blew 10, 9 twice, 7 and 6 3 times in his career

Randy Myers blew 8, 7, and 6 4 times in his career.

[mark_beckens]

The reality however is, if he performed not even at last years level, but just an average closer level we would be in the playoffs.

League average save % 912 saves 1066 save opportunites 86%

Johnson 45/54 83%

If he was 46/54 he'd be 85.2% 47/54 = 87%

2 blown saves from being above league average. We are more then 2 games out of a play off spot right now. So again, YOU are WRONG!

[Spoonless]

The # of saves is NOT the issue.

Your logic here is the same as saying the guy that murdered 9 old ladies isnt really all that bad because he has also saved 45 old ladies crossing the street from getting hit by drunk drivers. So you give him a pass?

So you're saying that had he only murdered a league average of 5 old ladies, he'd be a stand-up fellow?

[Spoonless]

The reality however is, if he performed not even at last years level, but just an average closer level we would be in the playoffs.

Sure, I'll buy that. I was just pointing out that it's fallacious to treat JJ as the sole reason for the O's current record. The facts of the matter are that there are 70 losses, and that you can make the argument that if you pulled 5 wins out of the losses JJ was not involved in, the team would be in a better position, even carrying JJ's relatively poor performances. It's easy to point to him as "the reason" because he's at the forefront. That's what comes with the position of being the "closer".

[25 Nuggets]

If you'd have asked me at the start of the season, I would have found it hard to believe, that this guy could finish with 50 saves and an ERA under 3.00 and most of us will not want him to stay with the team.

[Can_of_corn]

If you'd have asked me at the start of the season, I would have found it hard to believe, that this guy could finish with 50 saves and an ERA under 3.00 and most of us will not want him to stay with the team.

I would believe it. A vocal minority wanted to trade him after last season's 51 saves and 2.49 ERA.

[Frobby]

I would believe it. A vocal minority wanted to trade him after last season's 51 saves and 2.49 ERA.

But the reasoning is very different. Those who wanted to trade Jim Johnson last winter didn't think he'd be bad this year, they merely thought he'd likely take a step back and wanted to "sell high." The people who want to "get rid of him" now actually think he hurts the team more than helps it.

I'm personally of the view that while JJ has undoubtedly had a bad year by his standards and has cost the team some wins, he's probably a good bet to be an average to above average closer in 2014. Whether he will be worth the money is a separate question.