Opportunity knocks for Ryan Flaherty

[CA-ORIOLE]

Exactly, Flaherty's defense at second was fine this season and the offensive threshold for second is lower then left.

I think it's possible he could be serviceable at third but it's definitely stretching on that one.

[Scrat1]

For the sake of argument, let's shelve the debate about whether Flaherty's pre (.627) or post (.828) all-star numbers are closer to his true talent level.

Let's say, for the sake of argument, his true offensive talent level is exactly the .677 OPS he's posted this year. Even if that's the case, he has still, in only 263 PA, produced a 1.3 fWAR (or 1.0 bWAR). Over the course of the season, he's comfortably at or over 2 WAR, which, for the peanuts he's costing Baltimore, isn't bad at all. There's a chance he gets exposed over the course of a full season and reverts back to April/May Flaherty, but there's an equally good (if not greater chance) that he builds on his offensive progress and becomes a .750 guy.

But all of that is speculation. My point is even if he repeats this year's numbers over the course of a season, he's still likely Baltimore's best option for 2014. Maybe he'll struggle and we'll have to bring in a AAAA guy or promote Schoop, or maybe we'll find we've got a second baseman for the next 3-4 years.

[CA-ORIOLE]

For the sake of argument, let's shelve the debate about whether Flaherty's pre (.627) or post (.828) all-star numbers are closer to his true talent level.

Let's say, for the sake of argument, his true offensive talent level is exactly the .677 OPS he's posted this year. Even if that's the case, he has still, in only 263 PA, produced a 1.3 fWAR (or 1.0 bWAR). Over the course of the season, he's comfortably at or over 2 WAR, which, for the peanuts he's costing Baltimore, isn't bad at all. There's a chance he gets exposed over the course of a full season and reverts back to April/May Flaherty, but there's an equally good (if not greater chance) that he builds on his offensive progress and becomes a .750 guy.

But all of that is speculation. My point is even if he repeats this year's numbers over the course of a season, he's still likely Baltimore's best option for 2014. Maybe he'll struggle and we'll have to bring in a AAAA guy or promote Schoop, or maybe we'll find we've got a second baseman for the next 3-4 years.

Sure. I agree.

I think we could try and acquire a more stable second baseman via trade/free agency, but why not put that money/reources somewhere else.

[Can_of_corn]

For the sake of argument, let's shelve the debate about whether Flaherty's pre (.627) or post (.828) all-star numbers are closer to his true talent level.

Let's say, for the sake of argument, his true offensive talent level is exactly the .677 OPS he's posted this year. Even if that's the case, he has still, in only 263 PA, produced a 1.3 fWAR (or 1.0 bWAR). Over the course of the season, he's comfortably at or over 2 WAR, which, for the peanuts he's costing Baltimore, isn't bad at all. There's a chance he gets exposed over the course of a full season and reverts back to April/May Flaherty, but there's an equally good (if not greater chance) that he builds on his offensive progress and becomes a .750 guy.

But all of that is speculation. My point is even if he repeats this year's numbers over the course of a season, he's still likely Baltimore's best option for 2014. Maybe he'll struggle and we'll have to bring in a AAAA guy or promote Schoop, or maybe we'll find we've got a second baseman for the next 3-4 years.

Of course that also depends on if he can maintain the level of defense he has shown this season.

A half season of information is far from reassuring.

[DrungoHazewood]

For the sake of argument, let's shelve the debate about whether Flaherty's pre (.627) or post (.828) all-star numbers are closer to his true talent level.

Let's say, for the sake of argument, his true offensive talent level is exactly the .677 OPS he's posted this year. Even if that's the case, he has still, in only 263 PA, produced a 1.3 fWAR (or 1.0 bWAR). Over the course of the season, he's comfortably at or over 2 WAR, which, for the peanuts he's costing Baltimore, isn't bad at all. There's a chance he gets exposed over the course of a full season and reverts back to April/May Flaherty, but there's an equally good (if not greater chance) that he builds on his offensive progress and becomes a .750 guy.

But all of that is speculation. My point is even if he repeats this year's numbers over the course of a season, he's still likely Baltimore's best option for 2014. Maybe he'll struggle and we'll have to bring in a AAAA guy or promote Schoop, or maybe we'll find we've got a second baseman for the next 3-4 years.

I can't really disagree with that. It will probably be prohibitively expensive to guarantee a higher level of production at second base. And they have a backup plan in Schoop - or Flaherty is Schoop's backup plan if they go with Flaherty in more of a utility role.

[DrungoHazewood]

Of course that also depends on if he can maintain the level of defense he has shown this season.

A half season of information is far from reassuring.

Lots of noise in the signal, so you're going to have to rely on scouting a good bit. The ghost of Andino haunts us (in kind of a Casper the friendly ghost way), in that the put up a near .700 OPS with almost +10 defense in '11 then regressed down a cliff in both areas in '12.

[LA2]

Of course that also depends on if he can maintain the level of defense he has shown this season.

A half season of information is far from reassuring.

Good point. People tend to forget that defensive performance is volatile, too.

[Redskins Rick]

I don't dislike Flash.

But, the way some people post about him, you expect him to be the 2nd messiah and can walk on water.

I like the guy, but, I guess I must be in the minority and think he is what he is, just a valuable utility guy?

[Ohfan67]

Ryan Flaherty is 27 years old and will be 28 next July. He's managed to accumulate only 431 ML plate appearances at age 27. The probability that Flaherty is going to be a productive ML player is probably not statistically different than zero. I think counting on Flaherty to produce over a full year is very unwise. It's basically ignoring all the negatives and focusing on a few highlights. I would much rather give the job to Schoop than count on Flaherty. I think he's worth a roster spot as a bench player and can be given more playing time if he earns it, but counting on him as a starter is incredibly optimistic in my opinion.

[25 Nuggets]

It's pretty simple to me:

2B - Schoop ®

3B - Machado ®

SS - Hardy ®

backup: Flaherty (L) vs RHP

Is there any problem with that setup?

[DrungoHazewood]

Ryan Flaherty is 27 years old and will be 28 next July. He's managed to accumulate only 431 ML plate appearances at age 27. The probability that Flaherty is going to be a productive ML player is probably not statistically different than zero. I think counting on Flaherty to produce over a full year is very unwise. It's basically ignoring all the negatives and focusing on a few highlights. I would much rather give the job to Schoop than count on Flaherty. I think he's worth a roster spot as a bench player and can be given more playing time if he earns it, but counting on him as a starter is incredibly optimistic in my opinion.

I'm not real high on Flaherty's chances, but they have to be non-zero. And probably closer to 1-in-3 than zero. There are dozens, maybe hundreds, of players who got very limited chances up through Flaherty's age and then had some level of success as major league regulars later on.

Davey Lopes had a 16-year, 42-rWAR career after not appearing in the majors at all until the end of his age-27 season. Someone else mentioned Raul Ibanez. Lee Lacy is another similar case.

We can pretty conclusively say Flaherty won't make the Hall of Fame. Setting aside cases like Negro Leaguers and very early guys for whom MLB didn't exist until later in life, almost no position player has ever been inducted into the Hall without establishing himself as a regular player in the majors by 25 or so. Sam Rice was always the exception that proved the rule for late in life MLB debutants, and while he first appeared in the Majors at 25 he didn't have a full season until 27.

[Ed-die... Ed-die]

Scope is the future. ... but he is not ready. Palmer joked that he wasn't seeing fastballs yesterday. I think the Os decision makers bring back BRob until Scope is ready. Flash is a super-sub who hits .218. He hit .218 early while BRob was out and he's hitting .218 now. I love him and I'd play him more - but he's a super-sub. Scope is the future... the near future.

[isestrex]

Ryan Flaherty is 27 years old and will be 28 next July. He's managed to accumulate only 431 ML plate appearances at age 27. The probability that Flaherty is going to be a productive ML player is probably not statistically different than zero. I think counting on Flaherty to produce over a full year is very unwise. It's basically ignoring all the negatives and focusing on a few highlights. I would much rather give the job to Schoop than count on Flaherty. I think he's worth a roster spot as a bench player and can be given more playing time if he earns it, but counting on him as a starter is incredibly optimistic in my opinion.

Again, Lord Voldemort says hello

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/i/ibanera01.shtml

[Can_of_corn]

Scope is the future. ... but he is not ready. Palmer joked that he wasn't seeing fastballs yesterday. I think the Os decision makers bring back BRob until Scope is ready. Flash is a super-sub who hits .218. He hit .218 early while BRob was out and he's hitting .218 now. I love him and I'd play him more - but he's a super-sub. Scope is the future... the near future.

Who the heck is Scope?

We spelling out all the players' names phonetically now?

[CA-ORIOLE]

I don't dislike Flash.

But, the way some people post about him, you expect him to be the 2nd messiah and can walk on water.

I like the guy, but, I guess I must be in the minority and think he is what he is, just a valuable utility guy?

Really? What a bunch of hyperbole "some people" are throwing out.