Opportunity knocks for Ryan Flaherty

[CA-ORIOLE]

Lots of noise in the signal, so you're going to have to rely on scouting a good bit. The ghost of Andino haunts us (in kind of a Casper the friendly ghost way), in that the put up a near .700 OPS with almost +10 defense in '11 then regressed down a cliff in both areas in '12.

Andino's DRS at second base was almost exactly the same in 2012 as it was in 2011. The difference in dWar were some high small sample size fluctuations at SS/3b in 2011.

[Tony-OH]

Don't read too much into this, but I ran a query which was essentially "players who appeared in the majors up through age 26, but hit poorly and had at most 500 PAs."

The top players on that list from age 27-on (in rWAR) were:

Lee Lacy

Bob "Death To Flying Things" Ferguson

Brendan Ryan

Nick Punto

Hank Majewski

Bill Pecota

Admiral Schlei

Geronimo Berroa

Zeb Terry

Pat Moran

Also further down the list were Rene "RC" Gonzalez, Lena "Baseball Mud" Blackburne, Jayson Nix, Willie Bloomquist (the very definition of a replacement-level utility guy), Sal Fasano, and Jayhawk Owens.

Which tells me that Ryan Flaherty has a reasonable chance of becoming some kind of cult hero with a bizarre nickname.

That's the best conclusion I've heard yet on this situation!

[Tony-OH]

If Schoop is the 2B next year any chance Flaherty could become the LF with some winter ball and spring training work?

Honestly, a Flaherty/Valencia platoon might be pretty productive in LF next year. Of course, Valenica had never played the outfield professionally until this year at Norfolk, but Flaherty looked decent in his time in RF last year.

If our infield included Machado, Hardy, Schoop and Davis next year at some point, Flaherty might make a decent LF/UTL/DH.

[scOtt]

Honestly, a Flaherty/Valencia platoon might be pretty productive in LF next year. Of course, Valenica had never played the outfield professionally until this year at Norfolk, but Flaherty looked decent in his time in RF last year.

If our infield included Machado, Hardy, Schoop and Davis next year at some point, Flaherty might make a decent LF/UTL/DH.

Along with the power he's shown that's why I like Flash so much. He's played all over the field and always looks at least decent wherever. Sometimes even great in the field. Look at the pick he made last night on the ball to JJ in the hole.

[mdbdotcom]

Don't read too much into this, but I ran a query which was essentially "players who appeared in the majors up through age 26, but hit poorly and had at most 500 PAs."

The top players on that list from age 27-on (in rWAR) were:

Lee Lacy

Bob "Death To Flying Things" Ferguson

Brendan Ryan

Nick Punto

Hank Majewski

Bill Pecota

Admiral Schlei

Geronimo Berroa

Zeb Terry

Pat Moran

Also further down the list were Rene "RC" Gonzalez, Lena "Baseball Mud" Blackburne, Jayson Nix, Willie Bloomquist (the very definition of a replacement-level utility guy), Sal Fasano, and Jayhawk Owens.

Which tells me that Ryan Flaherty has a reasonable chance of becoming some kind of cult hero with a bizarre nickname.

You could add Ben Zobrist to that list.

Age 25 198 PA .572 OPS

Age 26 105 PA .391 OPS

and then

Age 27 227 PA .844 OPS

I'm not suggesting Flash will be the next Zobrist, but his ability to play all over the field and his power are similar. If his career were to take a similar trajectory, he'd be a nugget.

[Ohfan67]

I'm not real high on Flaherty's chances, but they have to be non-zero. And probably closer to 1-in-3 than zero. There are dozens, maybe hundreds, of players who got very limited chances up through Flaherty's age and then had some level of success as major league regulars later on.

Davey Lopes had a 16-year, 42-rWAR career after not appearing in the majors at all until the end of his age-27 season. Someone else mentioned Raul Ibanez. Lee Lacy is another similar case.

We can pretty conclusively say Flaherty won't make the Hall of Fame. Setting aside cases like Negro Leaguers and very early guys for whom MLB didn't exist until later in life, almost no position player has ever been inducted into the Hall without establishing himself as a regular player in the majors by 25 or so. Sam Rice was always the exception that proved the rule for late in life MLB debutants, and while he first appeared in the Majors at 25 he didn't have a full season until 27.

I think that's a way, way overestimate. And I think throwing out names is pretty uninformative. Every week multiple people win lotteries all over the country, but we would be dumb to develop a family budget based on the lottery. Throwing out the names of lottery winners doesn't justify developing a family budget on the lottery. And yeah, I know that Flaherty has a better shot at having a ML career than of winning big bucks in the lottery, but I think the probability is way less than .33. The Melvin Mora's of the baseball world are very rare.

[CA-ORIOLE]

I think that's a way, way overestimate. And I think throwing out names is pretty uninformative. Every week multiple people win lotteries all over the country, but we would be dumb to develop a family budget based on the lottery. Throwing out the names of lottery winners doesn't justify developing a family budget on the lottery. And yeah, I know that Flaherty has a better shot at having a ML career than of winning big bucks in the lottery, but I think the probability is way less than .33. The Melvin Mora's of the baseball world are very rare.

So, even as a utility guy, you're equating Ryan Flaherty's chances of having a reasonable ML career to winning the lottery? Flaherty has started 59 games this year and has an approximate 1 WAR. You're saying that's meaningless? The professional scouts who have stated has a reasonable chance a ML career, possibly as a starter, are clueless?

[Ohfan67]

So, even as a utility guy, you're equating Ryan Flaherty's chances of having a reasonable ML career to winning the lottery? Flaherty has started 59 games this year and has an approximate 1 WAR. You're saying that's meaningless? The professional scouts who have stated has a reasonable chance a ML career, possibly as a starter, are clueless?

I'm saying that only a small percentage of players with his experience level at his age ever have a decent career. I think the percentage is actually very small. Definitely below 33%. WAR and other estimates of value based on the relatively little playing time he had are pretty useless. I think the WAR estimates of defensive value are subjective and often very unrealistic. I think it's very likely that Flaherty would disappoint if given a starting job next year and I think it's very likely that he is not playing baseball in three years.

[Ohfan67]

So, even as a utility guy, you're equating Ryan Flaherty's chances of having a reasonable ML career to winning the lottery? Flaherty has started 59 games this year and has an approximate 1 WAR. You're saying that's meaningless? The professional scouts who have stated has a reasonable chance a ML career, possibly as a starter, are clueless?

Actually, I specifically said his chances were greater than winning big money in the lottery.

[Ohfan67]

So, even as a utility guy, you're equating Ryan Flaherty's chances of having a reasonable ML career to winning the lottery? Flaherty has started 59 games this year and has an approximate 1 WAR. You're saying that's meaningless? The professional scouts who have stated has a reasonable chance a ML career, possibly as a starter, are clueless?

By the way, some scout or more often more than one has said this about basically EVERY player who ever reached the big leagues and didn't have a successful ML career. I don't know the numbers, but I think it's safe to say that many if not MOST MiL players that scouts think have a shot don't have a significant career. That definitely does not mean that scouts are clueless. It means that having a significant career in the ML is really, really hard.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Actually, I specifically said his chances were greater than winning big money in the lottery.

So we're talking a 100 dollar scratch off then?

[CA-ORIOLE]

By the way, some scout or more often more than one has said this about basically EVERY player who ever reached the big leagues and didn't have a successful ML career. I don't know the numbers, but I think it's safe to say that many if not MOST MiL players that scouts think have a shot don't have a significant career. That definitely does not mean that scouts are clueless. It means that having a significant career in the ML is really, really hard.

Well, yeah I'd say it's safe to say that most prospects with a better than winning the lotto chance to have Ml career don't pan out. Sounds like you think his approx 1 war production this year in limited playing time is a worthless indicator then? Why?

[DrungoHazewood]

I'm saying that only a small percentage of players with his experience level at his age ever have a decent career. I think the percentage is actually very small. Definitely below 33%. WAR and other estimates of value based on the relatively little playing time he had are pretty useless. I think the WAR estimates of defensive value are subjective and often very unrealistic. I think it's very likely that Flaherty would disappoint if given a starting job next year and I think it's very likely that he is not playing baseball in three years.

But we have other knowledge besides the fact that he's played little and hasn't hit particularly well. He seems to have significant defensive value. He was plucked out of the minors before he was ready because of Rule 5. He has hit well in spurts. I don't know that the best way to project his future is just to look at all 26-year-olds with a .625 OPS and say those guys don't often succeed. It might be better to look at 26-year-olds who had a season where they were worth ~1 win per 250 PAs.

And again, I think there's a better chance he washes out than becomes a real asset. But I don't think the idea that he's an almost impossible longshot holds water.

[DrungoHazewood]

Well, yeah I'd say it's safe to say that most prospects with a better than winning the lotto chance to have Ml career don't pan out. Sounds like you think his approx 1 war production this year in limited playing time is a worthless indicator then? Why?

I think it's one piece of data in the overall picture:

1) He played poorly as a Rule 5 pick.

2) His former team left him exposed in the Rule 5 draft.

3) He apparently has excellent scouting reports.

4) He has good power.

5) His OBP has never been great.

6) His defensive metrics are good, and they seem to agree with subjective reports.

7) He's very old for someone who isn't established yet.

8) He grades out as a 2+ win player based on 2013

It's a mixed bag. But probably worth a shot in some combination with Schoop.

[CA-ORIOLE]

I think it's one piece of data in the overall picture:

1) He played poorly as a Rule 5 pick.

2) His former team left him exposed in the Rule 5 draft.

3) He apparently has excellent scouting reports.

4) He has good power.

5) His OBP has never been great.

6) His defensive metrics are good, and they seem to agree with subjective reports.

7) He's very old for someone who isn't established yet.

8) He grades out as a 2+ win player based on 2013

It's a mixed bag. But probably worth a shot in some combination with Schoop.

Yeah that's fair. As I noted earlier his development has been impeded somewhat by injury and his rule 5 status.