Revised Poll - Whom Do You Prefer As Starting Second Baseman Down The Stretch (Not DH)

[Old#5fan]

If this was 2009 you would have a great point and we wouldn't be having this discussion. Unfortunately for the pro-Roberts camp, this is 2013. There is a reason he is hitting well below his career average, because he's not that player any more.

From 2004-2009, Brian Roberts hit 279 doubles in 4143 plate appearances for one double every 14.9 PA. That's a double machine. From 2010 until today, Brian Roberts has hit 27 double in 641 PA for one double every 23.7 PA. He's hitting a double one every 21.3 PA this year. The only form he's getting back into is the same form he's been since 2010. At 35-years old, he's not going to suddenly blossom back into a double machine, especially with the PED testing going on now.

That last point (the PED testing part) I actually had not thought about, but that could be another big reason why his doubles have dropped off per PA now. He still looks strong physically though, albeit slower moving. I guess this argument all boils down to this:

Older, non-enhanced Roberts who still swings a better bat than Flaherty, versus Ryan, who definitely has more range and plays better defensively. I just think in this case it is a better choice to go with the veteran, but of course, I could be wrong.

[Aglets]

So yes, a 35 year old DOES have more upside than the young guy in this case (imo of course, and apparently the opinion of Buck).

B-Rob has a career OPS of .762 and I happen to believe he can still get his numbers fairly close to that this season if given enough PA (at least around .730 or so) whereas in an almost full season of Games Played for his ML career Flaherty is still hovering at .625.

That is what I mean by 'more upside.'

OPS now at .720 and still rising. Almost to the (not completely) arbitrary target I set here. Recently passed Markakis in OPS on this team, JJ Hardy is up next.

I still don't think a few posters on here understand what I meant when I said 'upside.' I meant that his 'upside' is far above and beyond what he HAD been doing (.604 OPS in 2011, .415 in 2012, etc).

People on this board seemed to think that either those horrific numbers were do to a gradual erosion of skills due to his age, or that his body was too broken to keep him on the field anymore.

To me, I had seen enough in spurts (especially early this year) to see that #1 is probably not the case, so #2 was really the only issue.

Yes, he put up terrible numbers since the self-induced brain injury, but that was because he was still feeling the long term effects of said injury! He had not lost his fundamental skill set, it was just beyond what his body was capable of doing for a very long time. But here we are, in 2013, however many years removed from the concussion, and it looks like his body is holding together for the moment at least.

Here's the bottom line:

Given health, Roberts has proven enough to me that he can still produce at a major league level, and that's why I believe he deserves the 2B spot for the moment. Flaherty is younger and all and has shown some signs of being able to produce, but he doesn't have the track record. So for now, give me the guy with the track record.

Would I have signed a 2Bman suffering from concussion effects to a $10M contract this year? Of course not, but that is only relevant in an alternate reality where B-Rob is not on the Orioles roster. In the only reality that matters, he IS on the roster, so it makes sense to evaluate and see what he has left to offer, if anything.

It appears, that he hasn't given us everything.......................not yet.

[Old#5fan]

OPS now at .720 and still rising. Almost to the (not completely) arbitrary target I set here. Recently passed Markakis in OPS on this team, JJ Hardy is up next.

I still don't think a few posters on here understand what I meant when I said 'upside.' I meant that his 'upside' is far above and beyond what he HAD been doing (.604 OPS in 2011, .415 in 2012, etc).

People on this board seemed to think that either those horrific numbers were do to a gradual erosion of skills due to his age, or that his body was too broken to keep him on the field anymore.

To me, I had seen enough in spurts (especially early this year) to see that #1 is probably not the case, so #2 was really the only issue.

Yes, he put up terrible numbers since the self-induced brain injury, but that was because he was still feeling the long term effects of said injury! He had not lost his fundamental skill set, it was just beyond what his body was capable of doing for a very long time. But here we are, in 2013, however many years removed from the concussion, and it looks like his body is holding together for the moment at least.

Here's the bottom line:

Given health, Roberts has proven enough to me that he can still produce at a major league level, and that's why I believe he deserves the 2B spot for the moment. Flaherty is younger and all and has shown some signs of being able to produce, but he doesn't have the track record. So for now, give me the guy with the track record.

Would I have signed a 2Bman suffering from concussion effects to a $10M contract this year? Of course not, but that is only relevant in an alternate reality where B-Rob is not on the Orioles roster. In the only reality that matters, he IS on the roster, so it makes sense to evaluate and see what he has left to offer, if anything.

It appears, that he hasn't given us everything.......................not yet.

This is a very detailed and excellent analysis and pretty much sums of the question on BROB. Now I would like to get your take on Flaherty. Is he a 216 hitter or there abouts at the major league level? If so, I dont' care how great his defense is, he belongs in the minor leagues until if and when, he can improve his hitting skills. His defense is fine, but 216 isn't going to cut it..

[Aglets]

This is a very detailed and excellent analysis and pretty much sums of the question on BROB. Now I would like to get your take on Flaherty. Is he a 216 hitter or there abouts at the major league level? If so, I dont' care how great his defense is, he belongs in the minor leagues until if and when, he can improve his hitting skills. His defense is fine, but 216 isn't going to cut it..

I think his upside is definitely higher than that. But it's hard to know for sure. One thing he does have on his side is that he has a career slash line of .278 / .345 / .464 in the minors (.809 OPS), however the numbers don't look as good if you just look at the AAA level.

He appears to me to be kind of a light, left-handed hitting, JJ Hardy. Good power potential, but not the best at making contact / getting on base. There is still some time for him to improve on those numbers, but a 92:19 SO to BB ratio suggests to me that there are still some significant holes in his game. I'm not sure how many more low-OBP guys the O's really want to have on their roster for 2014, but that is not something that we really need to worry about at all right now in the middle of a playoff hunt.

[Old#5fan]

I think his upside is definitely higher than that. But it's hard to know for sure. One thing he does have on his side is that he has a career slash line of .278 / .345 / .464 in the minors (.809 OPS), however the numbers don't look as good if you just look at the AAA level.

He appears to me to be kind of a light, left-handed hitting, JJ Hardy. Good power potential, but not the best at making contact / getting on base. There is still some time for him to improve on those numbers, but a 92:19 SO to BB ratio suggests to me that there are still some significant holes in his game. I'm not sure how many more low-OBP guys the O's really want to have on their roster for 2014, but that is not something that we really need to worry about at all right now in the middle of a playoff hunt.

Thanks. I would give you rep if I could. :thumbsup1:

[El Gordo]

Who would you rather have batting in a game situation this week against TB, BRob or Flash?

[Old#5fan]

Who would you rather have batting in a game situation this week against TB, BRob or Flash?

I am sure this is a trick question, as Flaherty probably has good numbers against the Rays ( I don't have time to look them up), but regardless I will take Roberts as he is hitting well right now and Flaherty, not so much.

[auzzy98]

Who would you rather have batting in a game situation this week against TB, BRob or Flash?

BRob, not even close.

[El Gordo]

I am sure this is a trick question, as Flaherty probably has good numbers against the Rays ( I don't have time to look them up), but regardless I will take Roberts as he is hitting well right now and Flaherty, not so much.

No trick. Just seems obvious to me that you will get a better AB from BRob, especially now when he is hot.

[Aglets]

Fun fact:

Danny Valencia is 7 for 10 with 2 BB against David Price. Here's hoping they add him back to the active roster this afternoon. (almost 100% sure they will)

Wieters also is OPSing over .900 against him over 32 AB.

B-Rob has a .750 OPS over 12 AB (+ 2 BB).

The more you know........

[avdeuph]

So here's the most simple breakdown:

1) We have the best projected defense in MLB history.

2) We have an offense which is inconsistent and contains more than its share of impatient hitters. It's not even the best in the league in most categories.

Now, tell me Flaherty is a better choice...that you would rather apply Flaherty's defense and suffer the offense than apply Robert's offense and suffer the defense...it would be a tough argument to make.

Obviously our expectations for Roberts are evolving the longer he stays on the field...I wish the collective group could remember that essentially NOBODY expected anything from him. Now it's "he's only OPSing this and not stealing bases etc etc"

No matter how you spin it, offensively he is an upgrade both over last year's 2B production and this year's alternatives. Defensively he has been been replacement level, and not as good as the current alternatives.

[Grt 2BA FL Gator]

From 2010 until today, Brian Roberts has hit 27 double in 641 PA for one double every 23.7 PA. He's hitting a double one every 21.3 PA this year. The only form he's getting back into is the same form he's been since 2010.

This is a frustrating argument that you keep going back to. You state it like fact that B Rob is the injury riddled guy we saw from 2010 on.. You wanna talk SSS?? That's what you are doing by pointing out those numbers.

If you want to point out the last few years, you should just state that it is likely Roberts gets injured. That much is still probable. But pointing out what his numbers were during a stretch where he never got settled in and/or was playing hurt is just playing into your bias.

[DrungoHazewood]

So here's the most simple breakdown:

1) We have the best projected defense in MLB history.

Hold on... what? By what measure?

I'm guessing you mean by fielding percentage. That's but a small part of fielding ability, and the standards have changed greatly over time to the benefit of the current team. One of my pet peeves is equating fielding percentage with overall fielding ability, which it clearly is not.

By UZR the Orioles are the 3rd-best team in MLB this year in defensive runs saved, behind the Royals and Dbacks. If they keep up their current pace they could end up among the top 20 or 25 defensive teams of the past decade.

[mark_beckens]

Hold on... what? By what measure?

I'm guessing you mean by fielding percentage. That's but a small part of fielding ability, and the standards have changed greatly over time to the benefit of the current team. One of my pet peeves is equating fielding percentage with overall fielding ability, which it clearly is not.

By UZR the Orioles are the 3rd-best team in MLB this year in defensive runs saved, behind the Royals and Dbacks. If they keep up their current pace they could end up among the top 20 or 25 defensive teams of the past decade.

By number of errors committed in a season, they are on pace to break the record.

[DrungoHazewood]

By number of errors committed in a season, they are on pace to break the record.

Yes, but "fewest errors" does not equate to "best defensive team".