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Should Tillman be considered an ace?

andrewrickli

By andrewrickli
in Orioles Talk

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Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

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I doubt most Cy Young voters care a whit about FIP. I agree Tillman won't get any Cy Young consideration, but FIP has nothing to do with it. He's 19th among qualifiers on the ERA list and that's all the reason anyone needs. I'd expect Scherzer and Darvish to finish 1-2, barring a meltdown by either one in their last 3-4 starts. Tillman might get a couple of 5th place votes, if any (how many guys do they vote for?).

Sale could easily finish ahead of Darvish.

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BohKnowsBmore Hangout Grand Counsel

BohKnowsBmore

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Where is Sale?

Probably not on there due to his W-L record. See the formula they use below. I'm sure Sale will finish #2 or #3' date=' but this listing is a Cy Young probability based on characteristics of past winners. I wish I had put the info in my first post where I showed the list as it's pretty important to valuing what they do here. I should have realized it would be easily missed if I didn't preface the list with it.

[b']CYP: In The Neyer/James Guide To Pitchers -- co-authored by Bill James and ESPN.com's Rob Neyer presents a method, based on past results, to predict Cy Young balloting. This page provides an in-season snapshot of the Cy Young "race," as figured by the following formula: Cy Young Points (CYP) = ((5*IP/9)-ER) + (SO/12) + (SV*2.5) + Shutouts + ((W*6)-(L*2)) + VB (see below).

VB: Victory Bonus is a 12-point bonus awarded for leading your team to the division championship[/b]

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BohKnowsBmore Hangout Grand Counsel

BohKnowsBmore

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Who cares about FIP? It's a future performance indicator. It has no bearing on what has actually already happened, which is what awards are based on.

I'm completely with you here. I think it's ridiculous to try and use it to analyze an entire season worth of performance in that, at that point, that was your performance for the season (runs allowed, IP, K's, etc.). While it's an interesting tool and a good predictor we shouldn't let it take the place of what actually happened in terms of results when looking at a complete set of data points (in this case the entire season, which is the basis for these awards).

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CA-ORIOLE Hangout Grand Counsel

CA-ORIOLE

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Who cares about FIP? It's a future performance indicator. It has no bearing on what has actually already happened, which is what awards are based on.

Uggh,.Again, this is not true. It is a metric that has a predictive value greater than ERA. You may not like the metric (I know you don't), but it is a metric.

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Don Quixote Hangout Grand Counsel

Don Quixote

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Presently, Tillman is the Orioles' #1 starter, but from a league-wide perspective, I wouldn't consider him an ace yet. He's definitely improved overall, though, and I think the vast majority of the time he goes out there, the team will have a good chance at the win (the Orioles are 20-9 in games he has started this season, 30-14 over the last two years). To move toward that ace designation, he still needs to tighten up some (command-wise), continue to go deeper in games (he's only gone 7+ in 10 of 29 starts, albeit with three out of the last four), not have "that inning" or "those two innings" that drive us all a bit batty, and, as many have said, consistently perform at that level. Doing that would help his numbers across the board, both in traditional and advanced measures.

That said, although pitching wins are anathema to many (who should like this, I think the attitude at large (and even for a few folks here on the OH) about Tillman's "aceness" would be a little different if he was sitting on 19 wins and Jim Johnson hadn't cost him three (in May against San Diego [Orioles loss], and the consecutive starts last month against the Giants and Diamondbacks [Orioles win, loss]). The same can be said for Cy Young consideration. I'm pretty sure he won't win the award this year (though he might get a few lower-end votes if he keeps his performance up down the stretch), but if he ended with 20+ wins (he would have to get winning decisions every start from here out just to get to 20 - a tall order), some of the media set would certainly consider him a dark horse, especially if he lowered his ERA a bit over his final starts - say, get it around/just below 3.5 with some great performances. (Imagine if a competent Jim would have allowed him the potential to be 23-5....)

Any way you slice it, though, we should all be thankful he's not the 2009-2011 Tillman anymore, and be at least fairly confident in continued progress.

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CA-ORIOLE Hangout Grand Counsel

CA-ORIOLE

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Every voter is unique and I guarantee some of them will look at FIP when casting their Cy Young ballots. Others will not. Some will.

I don't know about the CY Young voters, but I guarantee most of the sabermetric types are looking at FIP (and it's offspring) before ERA.

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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I don't know about the CY Young voters, but I guarantee most of the sabermetric types are looking at FIP (and it's offspring) before ERA.

Sure, because they are the "sabermetric types," so that's practically a tautological statement. But how many Cy Young voters place primacy on sabermetrics? Probably very few.

Last year's FIP leaders (NL): Gonzalez, Kershaw, Wainwright, Lee, Miley

Last year's ERA leaders (NL): Kershaw, Dickey, Cueto, Cain, Lohse

Last year's Cy Young vote leaders (NL): Dickey, Kershaw, Gonzalez, Cueto, Cain, Lohse (relievers excluded)

Last year's FIP leaders (AL): Hernandez, Verlander, Price, Scherzer, Sale

Last year's ERA leaders (AL): Price, Verlander, Weaver, Sale, Hernandez

Last year's Cy Young vote leaders (AL): Price, Verlander, Weaver, Hernandez, Sale (relievers excluded)

Draw your own conclusions.

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Redskins Rick Hangout Grand Counsel

Redskins Rick

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Anyways ignoring all this Cy Young talk which Tillman deserves none of by the way. He is 19th in basic run prevention among AL starters. That is not ace like to be blunt. Let's not even get started on peripherals because they do not do Tillman justice in the ace conversation.

The way you say 19, its like a bad thing.

19th out of a possible 200+ possible starters

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CA-ORIOLE Hangout Grand Counsel

CA-ORIOLE

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Sure, because they are the "sabermetric types," so that's practically a tautological statement. But how many Cy Young voters place primacy on sabermetrics? Probably very few..

Primacy? I don't know, but certainly things are changing with a new guard and they are being looked at more and more.

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