Trade proposal: Bundy and Jimenez for Cole Hamels

[weams]

I say that Cole can block a trade to Baltimore, so if a trade were to go down he would have to be placated.

Also what the other guys said.

Coles is not coming here. He is going somewhere on his list. End.

[Redskins Rick]

Coles is not coming here. He is going somewhere on his list. End.

Good, I don't see their GM working out a fair deal to both teams, he is going to want too much for Coles.

[Can_of_corn]

Coles is not coming here. He is going somewhere on his list. End.

Guys have changed their minds for extensions before.

I think there are more then enough teams on his list that the Phillies won't have to go off list.

[MrOrange82]

Guys have changed their minds for extensions before.

I think there are more then enough teams on his list that the Phillies won't have to go off list.

In fairness, the O's were 52-48 on the day Hamels' extension was announced, and they were mired in a string of...well, you know how many...losing seasons in a row. In other words, the extension/no trade list was negotiated when the O's, by all accounts, still sucked. Being "competitive" for three consecutive years might have changed the equation in the interim, unless Hamels' no trade list is renewed (i.e., subject to change) before each season.

Granted, you can counter with the idea that Hamels' might not want to simply abandon a bargaining chip, regardless of whether he'd be in favor of coming to Baltimore now (as opposed to three years ago), and that he'd nevertheless use his no trade protection to milk additional years/money from the O's. But I don't think that's 100% certain if the Phillies' more recent streak of mediocrity/badness has worn on him.

And all that said, I still don't want him. The cost (financial and otherwise) would almost certainly be too high. If the Phils wanted *one* good prospect (with some filler) and were willing to eat 60% or more of Hamels' salary, then OK...maybe. But that's just not going to happen.

[CaptainRedbeard]

I am shocked at the responses in this thread. This would be an excellent trade for the Orioles. Hamels is an incredible pitcher, who has averaged about 4 wins a season and starts 30+ games a year like clockwork. Had a minor shoulder injury at the start of the year, but has come back with no ill effects, with the same velocity and effectiveness. He's the "Ace" or "TOR" that our team desperately needs. He's also a lefty, which complements our rotation well.

Ubaldo has been complete garbage. His contract is shaping up to be an albatross. He's got $41 million left from 2015-2017. Hamels has $90 million for 2015-2018, plus a $6 million buyout on a $20 million 2019 option, which could bump up to $24 million if certain thresholds are met. That's a $48 million difference in guaranteed salaries to go from a replacement level pitcher (perhaps at best) to, well, Cole Hamels.

$48 million for Cole Hamels (less any positive value Ubaldo may accrue, which I'm considering to be zero) is a TON of surplus value. It's not as much surplus value as Bundy would be if he reached his ceiling, but if you discount that possibility appropriately, it's going to be close or exceed it.

When you look at where the Orioles are, we have a fairly unprecedentedly wide open AL East that is ours to take. Our position on the win curve is better than it has been since 1997. But if we want to get out of the ALDS we need a shutdown pitcher. That's our #1 need for a short playoff series. I would not hesitate to give up Bundy to get that pitcher, whether it be Hamels, Lee, or Price. The money has to work out, and including Ubaldo is basically the #1 way to make that happen for Hamels or Lee.

I'd be happy to include Bundy, Ubaldo, and additional non-Gausman/Harvey prospects in order to get just Hamels. I'd include more to get Utley as well, seeing as 2B and and left handed hitting are our weaknesses #2 and #3 (with Brian Matusz #4). I wouldn't include Gausman/Harvey, but guys like EdRod, Schoop, Walker, Sisco...all fair game.

I know Hamels has the Orioles on his no-trade list, but I don't think he would block a trade to the Orioles. Likely he would simply use it as a bargaining position to get his option picked up for his full value as a condition of the trade. We may have to concede on that to some point in order to make it happen, but I don't think that would kill the possibility of a deal. More likely, Ruben Amaro Jr. would kill the possibility of a deal by asking for WAY too much, as he always has. It's not going to happen, but it's the type of trade the Orioles should be looking at, not at guys like Jorge de La Rosa.

[Dipper9]

No thanks.

Would they do Jimenez for Utley though?

[isestrex]

Would much rather trade for Ian Kennedy considering cost. Tillman, Gausman, Kennedy, Chen, Jimenez/Norris/Gonzalez? Sign me up.

Could also try to acquire Alex Torres in the deal as your lefty for the pen.

Kennedy is a fly ball, homer prone pitcher who struggled mightily in Arizona but has found a groove in Petco. He would get destroyed in Camden Yards vs the AL East.

I say that Cole can block a trade to Baltimore, so if a trade were to go down he would have to be placated.

Also what the other guys said.

Not sure why people think he would waive his no trade clause to the team closest to Philly geographically and leading a division right now. He'd have to really really love Philadelphia and want to go down with the ship than come to Baltimore.

That's worse than when I said trade Bundy for Samardzja.

I mean im for trading Bundy and another minor prospect or two for a vet pitcher. But I don't see how trading possibly two rotation guys next year for one aging one would help.

I don't think you looked at their ages before posting this:

Samardzija - 29

Jimenez - 30

Hamels - 30

Samardzija isn't as young as you think and Hamels isn't as old as you think.

I really don't mean offense by this, but I'd say that if you're willing to call a 4/50 contract for Ubaldo "bad" after 3.5 months, then you're not mentally prepared to take on a contract that will pay Hamels $22.5 million annually through 2018. And I'd wager the O's aren't, either.

As rocky as he's been, Ubaldo actually doesn't have to improve all that much to be "worth" his contract. Hamels, on the other hand, can't be less than stellar in order to make his remaining contract years worthwhile. The "surplus value" period is over in Hamels' case.

I've been completely against Ubaldo since January when rumors starting circulating. This season (and I believe future seasons) is panning out just the way I thought a $50 Ubaldo contract would take place. I wouldn't have spent $10 on him and certainly not for 4 years. While Hamel's contract is steep and long, I'd MUCH prefer it to the horrible Jimenez contract that I've been against from the start.

Where were the Phillies fans?

Phillies subreddit. For the record, they absolutely hated it. They were disgusted at the Ubaldo contract and were very very worried about Bundy returning from surgery and wanted nothing to do with him.

I am shocked at the responses in this thread. This would be an excellent trade for the Orioles. Hamels is an incredible pitcher, who has averaged about 4 wins a season and starts 30+ games a year like clockwork. Had a minor shoulder injury at the start of the year, but has come back with no ill effects, with the same velocity and effectiveness. He's the "Ace" or "TOR" that our team desperately needs. He's also a lefty, which complements our rotation well.

Ubaldo has been complete garbage. His contract is shaping up to be an albatross. He's got $41 million left from 2015-2017. Hamels has $90 million for 2015-2018, plus a $6 million buyout on a $20 million 2019 option, which could bump up to $24 million if certain thresholds are met. That's a $48 million difference in guaranteed salaries to go from a replacement level pitcher (perhaps at best) to, well, Cole Hamels.

$48 million for Cole Hamels (less any positive value Ubaldo may accrue, which I'm considering to be zero) is a TON of surplus value. It's not as much surplus value as Bundy would be if he reached his ceiling, but if you discount that possibility appropriately, it's going to be close or exceed it.

When you look at where the Orioles are, we have a fairly unprecedentedly wide open AL East that is ours to take. Our position on the win curve is better than it has been since 1997. But if we want to get out of the ALDS we need a shutdown pitcher. That's our #1 need for a short playoff series. I would not hesitate to give up Bundy to get that pitcher, whether it be Hamels, Lee, or Price. The money has to work out, and including Ubaldo is basically the #1 way to make that happen for Hamels or Lee.

I'd be happy to include Bundy, Ubaldo, and additional non-Gausman/Harvey prospects in order to get just Hamels. I'd include more to get Utley as well, seeing as 2B and and left handed hitting are our weaknesses #2 and #3 (with Brian Matusz #4). I wouldn't include Gausman/Harvey, but guys like EdRod, Schoop, Walker, Sisco...all fair game.

I know Hamels has the Orioles on his no-trade list, but I don't think he would block a trade to the Orioles. Likely he would simply use it as a bargaining position to get his option picked up for his full value as a condition of the trade. We may have to concede on that to some point in order to make it happen, but I don't think that would kill the possibility of a deal. More likely, Ruben Amaro Jr. would kill the possibility of a deal by asking for WAY too much, as he always has. It's not going to happen, but it's the type of trade the Orioles should be looking at, not at guys like Jorge de La Rosa.

This ^^^ echos pretty much all my thoughts on why I proposed the trade. I started to bold certain parts for emphasis but I ended up bolding just about all of it.

[Guest]

Not to be rude by why in the world would Philly want Jimenez? Come on People you're smarter then this.

[mark_beckens]

Ubaldo has been complete garbage.

Pretty much my opinion of the rest of your post.

[mark_beckens]

Kennedy is a fly ball, homer prone pitcher who struggled mightily in Arizona but has found a groove in Petco. He would get destroyed in Camden Yards vs the AL East.

Not sure why people think he would waive his no trade clause to the team closest to Philly geographically and leading a division right now. He'd have to really really love Philadelphia and want to go down with the ship than come to Baltimore.

I don't think you looked at their ages before posting this:

Samardzija - 29

Jimenez - 30

Hamels - 30

Samardzija isn't as young as you think and Hamels isn't as old as you think.

I've been completely against Ubaldo since January when rumors starting circulating. This season (and I believe future seasons) is panning out just the way I thought a $50 Ubaldo contract would take place. I wouldn't have spent $10 on him and certainly not for 4 years. While Hamel's contract is steep and long, I'd MUCH prefer it to the horrible Jimenez contract that I've been against from the start.

Phillies subreddit. For the record, they absolutely hated it. They were disgusted at the Ubaldo contract and were very very worried about Bundy returning from surgery and wanted nothing to do with him.

This ^^^ echos pretty much all my thoughts on why I proposed the trade. I started to bold certain parts for emphasis but I ended up bolding just about all of it.

Spending 20-25% of your payroll on one player and a pitcher at that. Is just plain stupid!! So we do your "trade" and that guarantees Davis, Weiters, and/or Tillman don't get signed to long term deals. Hamels > Davis, Weiters and Tillman. I don't think so!!

[CaptainRedbeard]

Pretty much my opinion of the rest of your post.

Oh well that's friendly, thanks for you're reasoned response. If you're looking for a few insults, I've found "5.42 BB/9" and "4.69 FIP" to be particularly hurtful.

[Reboulet'sStache]

I would probably do the trade if available, but zero chance the Phillies would. They can get a much better return than that.

[CaptainRedbeard]

Not to be rude by why in the world would Philly want Jimenez? Come on People you're smarter then this.

Oh they wouldn't, it's a salary dump to offset Hamels' salary. So basically the question is, is Hamels worth more than Bundy, and the answer is yes. Why wouldn't we want to do this trade? The Phillies wouldn't want to without more prospects.

[mark_beckens]

Oh well that's friendly, thanks for you're reasoned response. If you're looking for a few insults, I've found "5.42 BB/9" and "4.69 FIP" to be particularly hurtful.

I really didn't expect you to see that calling Ubaldo garbage and calling your post garbage were similar.

[CaptainRedbeard]

I really didn't expect you to see that calling Ubaldo garbage and calling your post garbage were similar.

The difference is that Ubaldo actually has pitched like garbage, and my post was rational and thought out, although I wouldn't expect you to see that because the second Bundy's name popped up you went into "auto-reject, must-mock trade proposal" mode.

By any metric you use, old stats or new, Ubaldo has been one of the very worst pitchers in baseball this year. I actually think he has a likeable personality, I don't hate him by any means, but his contract looks like it will be a colossal waste of money even if he does improve some, and he's pitched like garbage thus far. I don't see how anybody can dispute that.

Bundy is one of the most valuable trade commodities in baseball. No doubt. For the vast majority of players who are mentioned as trade targets, it's perfectly fine to say that they are not worth giving up Bundy for. The list is short where it is worthwhile to consider trading him. Even Cole Hamels for Bundy straight up is a trade where I wouldn't object to people dismissing it without giving much further thought to it, simply because of the amount of money Hamels is owed.

But when you start talking about Cole Hamels, instead valued nearly half of his contract value because you're shedding Ubaldo in the deal, that's a VERY appealing asset. One that is certainly worth considering dealing Bundy for, particularly in light of this team's current construction and playoff opportunity in 2014.