Should we do a qualifying offer to Trumbo and Wieters?

[Roll Tide]

He was close to worth it last year at 1.7 WAR. Wieters actually outproduced McCann this year. You are getting close to McCann/Russel Martin production at similar dollars but with no commitment to a long term deal. I would rather have the pick, but I would not be embarrassed at all about making that deal.

I'd offer Matt 3/36

[MDtransplant757]

I'd offer Matt 3/36

I think he's going for something like 4/55. Remember who his agent is and how weak this year's catching class is.

[24fps]

He was close to worth it last year at 1.7 WAR. Wieters actually outproduced McCann this year. You are getting close to McCann/Russel Martin production at similar dollars but with no commitment to a long term deal. I would rather have the pick, but I would not be embarrassed at all about making that deal.

"Close to worth it last year" is another way of saying the Orioles had the privilege of sinking 10% of their payroll into Matt Wieters at full retail plus a premium. Hard to view that as a compelling argument for doing it again, especially if the percentage is going to be higher.

I haven't seen anyone who advocates offering Matt the QO express an opinion on what the opening day payroll will be. Wieters at a $17.2 million would put it at around $170 million and that's without addressing any of the other FA needs. Do you think a payroll around $175 million is likely? I don't. I doubt that there's even $10 million earmarked for the catcher's spot.

Barring an unlikely trade of Gallardo or Jimenez at a net gain dollar-wise, my guess is that DD has about $10 million to spend. I doubt he relishes the thought of having to trade real value because Wieters decided to accept an offer for more than he worth from a team that couldn't afford to make it in the first place.

[bpilktree]

I am still in the option of trading for Carlos Ruiz the Dodgers are looking to deal him and he has one option year left be a nice stop gap for Sisco. He has decent bat and gets on base. I would look to move Gallardo in a deal for him.

[Can_of_corn]

Aren't we cutting about $14 mil with Trumbo and Alvarez leaving? I'm sure I could find another $5-6 mil to cut here and there.

How much do you expect Britton, Tillman, and Machado to get in arbitration? That isn't even counting the arb 1 guys.

[ChuckS]

17 mil to Matt Wieters is likely going to eat up any budget we would have to make other improvements to the team.

We can probably get two outfielders and a stopgap catcher for close to that price, who will likely combine for more than 1.5 WAR.

[24fps]

Aren't we cutting about $14 mil with Trumbo and Alvarez leaving? I'm sure I could find another $5-6 mil to cut here and there.

This link through MLB Trade Rumors has the 2017 payroll already at $155 million. That includes expected arb increases and no Wieters or Trumbo or Alvarez. I think it's a little spongy, but you get the idea. Say $150 million. Anyone who offers any player a QO has to be in the position of making good on the offer if its accepted, that goes without saying.

So the basic question is what is the real ceiling on 2017 payroll? If you're going to offer a QO and fill the other needs, it needs to be at least $170 million or you might find yourself in the position of trading someone you don't want to because you got greedy about a pick, for God's sake. Do you believe it's $170 million or more? I don't, I think it's closer to $160 million tops which means no QO for Wieters. Which is fine, because his performance doesn't warrant 10% of the payroll.

I can see PA making funds available for a longer-term deal (3 years) especially if there's money deferred. I don't see a QO under any circumstances.

http://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-baltimore-orioles-info

[ChuckS]

Aren't we cutting about $14 mil with Trumbo and Alvarez leaving? I'm sure I could find another $5-6 mil to cut here and there.

Arbitration raises are going to increase our payroll by 20 to 30 million so there goes your savings from those guys. Even QO'ing Wieters and doing nothing else in free agency could increase our payroll from 2016.

[1968_bills_fan]

Wieters (age 30) has a limited amount of years left to get a long term contract that will take him out, with big money coming in, to the years when his age is going to catch up to him. (see http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/catcher-aging-is-a-curve-not-a-cliff/). He has had a good year and he is recovered from the TJ surgery. He has to worry that if he takes the QO this year and has a bad season, that he might not get that set-for-life contract. He will not take the QO because Boris will insist on both of them getting big bucks now. So he will walk.

So we should offer both him and Trumbo and that will give us the #23 pick and two picks in the low 30's. This would be a major improvement in the farms system. While you can't trade the draft picks, you CAN trade the drafted prospects and that would be a way to recycle those two guys for a corner outfielder or a center fielder (AJ to right).

[Redskins Rick]

Wieters (age 30) has a limited amount of years left to get a long term contract that will take him out, with big money coming in, to the years when his age is going to catch up to him. (see http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/catcher-aging-is-a-curve-not-a-cliff/). He has had a good year and he is recovered from the TJ surgery. He has to worry that if he takes the QO this year and has a bad season, that he might not get that set-for-life contract. He will not take the QO because Boris will insist on both of them getting big bucks now. So he will walk.

So we should offer both him and Trumbo and that will give us the #23 pick and two picks in the low 30's. This would be a major improvement in the farms system. While you can't trade the draft picks, you CAN trade the drafted prospects and that would be a way to recycle those two guys for a corner outfielder or a center fielder (AJ to right).

Are there that many CF available on the market, that teams are looking to deal?

[24fps]

Wieters (age 30) has a limited amount of years left to get a long term contract that will take him out, with big money coming in, to the years when his age is going to catch up to him. (see http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/catcher-aging-is-a-curve-not-a-cliff/). He has had a good year and he is recovered from the TJ surgery. He has to worry that if he takes the QO this year and has a bad season, that he might not get that set-for-life contract. He will not take the QO because Boris will insist on both of them getting big bucks now. So he will walk.

So we should offer both him and Trumbo and that will give us the #23 pick and two picks in the low 30's. This would be a major improvement in the farms system. While you can't trade the draft picks, you CAN trade the drafted prospects and that would be a way to recycle those two guys for a corner outfielder or a center fielder (AJ to right).

As of now, Wieters has pulled $38.6 million out of professional baseball not including his signing bonus (I don't remember what it was, certainly in the millions). A qualifying offer would put him around $56 million in income before the age of 32. I don't think he needs to worry about being set for life. Even with a bad year that doesn't include a career-ending injury he's probably still got earning power measured in the tens of millions of dollars.

The Orioles have committed themselves to a "competitive window" approach to team building. Personally I think that's shortsighted, but that's a different discussion. That competitive window ends after 2017, it would be lunacy to endanger the final year of a rapidly closing opportunity for a competitive balance draft pick. Trumbo yes, but not Wieters.

[Aristotelian]

I haven't seen anyone who advocates offering Matt the QO express an opinion on what the opening day payroll will be. Wieters at a $17.2 million would put it at around $170 million and that's without addressing any of the other FA needs. Do you think a payroll around $175 million is likely? I don't. I doubt that there's even $10 million earmarked for the catcher's spot.

Barring an unlikely trade of Gallardo or Jimenez at a net gain dollar-wise, my guess is that DD has about $10 million to spend. I doubt he relishes the thought of having to trade real value because Wieters decided to accept an offer for more than he worth from a team that couldn't afford to make it in the first place.

Good point. But PA surprised us last year with a pretty big increase, and he appeared to be willing to do last year's payroll plus Fowler. With the window closing, who knows what PA might be willing to do this year? I also think we could dump Miley if we needed to clear some payroll.

[El Gordo]

BBR has the payroll at 137 M with arb and additional players needed to fill out the roster. Looks like some room to spend.

[Can_of_corn]

Good point. But PA surprised us last year with a pretty big increase, and he appeared to be willing to do last year's payroll plus Fowler. With the window closing, who knows what PA might be willing to do this year? I also think we could dump Miley if we needed to clear some payroll.

But then they sold the draft pick.

[Redskins Rick]

Good point. But PA surprised us last year with a pretty big increase, and he appeared to be willing to do last year's payroll plus Fowler. With the window closing, who knows what PA might be willing to do this year? I also think we could dump Miley if we needed to clear some payroll.

I am not ready to dump Miley as a LH SP, he is valuable, especially, if they fixed his hiccup and he pitches more like he did at the end of the season.