Ranking the best Orioles draft picks of the 21st Century

[Ceciltrav]

No Josh Hader?  He was a 19th round pick?

[Aristotelian]

22 minutes ago, Ceciltrav said:

No Josh Hader?  He was a 19th round pick?

He's #7 on the updated list. 

[Frobby]

Here's my updated list of the O’s top draft picks of the 21st century.  Players who moved up from last year are marked with an asterisk.   In compliling the list, I consider (1) what the player has achieved, (2) where the player is in his career and what he is likely to achieve, and (3) where the player was drafted.   

The big mover this year was Gunnar, who I jumped from 16 to 8 based on his 6.3 rWAR rookie campaign.  I placed him just ahead of Adley, even though Adley has a higher career rWAR to date, based on his lower draft position and his age.  Right now I have the two at 8 and 9, but I fully expect both to climb the list over time.  I weight actual accomplishment over expected accomplishment, though the latter does factor in significantly.

There’s a 1.0 rWAR threshold to make the list, and Jordan Westburg is the sole new debut, at the bottom of the list right now but with a lot of room to move up.  Grayson Rodriguez (0.9 rWAR) fell just short of debuting on the list, and has a good shot to debut in a relatively high spot in 2024.

As always, I’d be interested to know who you think I’ve ranked too high or too low.

1. Manny Machado, 1:3 pick 2010, 54.9 rWAR (2.9 in 2023)

2. Nick Markakis, 1:7 pick 2003, 33.6 rWAR

3. Jake Arrieta, 5:5 pick 2007, 23.3 rWAR 

4. Kevin Gausman, 1:4 pick 2012, 23.1 rWAR (3.4 in 2023)

5. Zach Britton, 3:9 pick 2006, 14.0 rWAR 

6. Matt Wieters, 1:5 pick 2007, 18.2 rWAR.

7.  Josh Hader, 19:4 pick 2012, 11.7 rWAR (2.4 in 2023)

*8. Gunnar Henderson, 2:1 pick 2019, 7.2 rWAR (6.3 in 2023)

9.  Ashley Rutschman, 1:1 pick 2019, 9.6 rWAR (4.3 in 2023)

10.  Cedric Mullins, 13:28 pick 2015, 12.2 rWAR (2.8 in 2023)

11.  John Means, 11:16 pick 2014, 9.8 rWAR (0.7 in 2023)

12. Zach Davies, 26:4 pick 2010, 8.2 rWAR (-1.5 in 2023)

13.  Mike Yastrzemski, 14:23 pick 2013, 11.9 rWAR (2.3 in 2023)

*14.  Christian Walker, 4:4 pick 2012, 12.6 rWAR (3.8 in 2023)

15. Trey Mancini, 8:23 pick 2013, 8.4 rWAR (-1.4 in 2023)

*16.  Austin Hays, 3:14 pick 2016, 9.1 rWAR (2.6 in 2022)

17.  Mychal Givens, 2:5 pick 2009, 8.4 rWAR (-0.4 in 2023)

18.  Jim Johnson, 5:7 pick 2001, 8.1 rWAR

19.   David Hernandez, 16:13 pick, 2005, 4.5 rWAR

20.  Dylan Bundy, 1:4 pick 2011, 8.6 rWAR 

21. Caleb Joseph, 7:4 pick 2008, 4.6 rWAR

*22.  Jonah Heim, 4:23 pick 2013, 5.3 rWAR (2.9 in 2023

*23.   Ryan Mountcastle, 1:36 pick 2015, 5.2 rWAR (2.1 in 2023)

24.  John Maine, 6:4 pick 2002, 4.0 rWAR

*25.  Tanner Scott, 6:16 pick 2014, 4.6 rWAR (3.6 in 2023)

26.  Brad Bergesen, 4:8 pick 2004, 2.9 rWAR

27.  Chris Ray, 3:7 pick 2003, 3.1 rWAR

28.  Mike Fontenot, 1:19 pick 2001, 4.2 rWAR

29.  Nolan Reimold, 2:13 pick 2005, 2.8 rWAR

*30.  Hunter Harvey, 1:22 pick 2013, 3.4 rWAR (1.9 in 2023)

31.  Donnie Hart, 27:23 pick 2013, 1.8 rWAR

32.  Steven Brault, 11:23 pick 2013, 1.8 rWAR 

33.  Brian Matusz, 1:4 pick 2008, 2.1 rWAR

34.  Oliver Drake, 43:4 pick 2008, 1.1 rWAR

35.  Parker Bridwell, 9:3 pick 2010, 1.3 rWAR

36.  Jordan Westburg, 1:30 pick 2020, 1.2 rWAR

 

 

[Frobby]

The 2013 draft produced the most 1+ WAR players this century: Yastrzemski, Mancini, Heim, Harvey, Hart and Brault.  Only two other years have produced as many as 3 players: 2010 (Machado, Davies, Bridwell) and 2012 (Gausman, Hader, Walker).  

[tntoriole]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

Here's my updated list of the O’s top draft picks of the 21st century.  Players who moved up from last year are marked with an asterisk.   In compliling the list, I consider (1) what the player has achieved, (2) where the player is in his career and what he is likely to achieve, and (3) where the player was drafted.   

The big mover this year was Gunnar, who I jumped from 16 to 8 based on his 6.3 rWAR rookie campaign.  I placed him just ahead of Adley, even though Adley has a higher career rWAR to date, based on his lower draft position and his age.  Right now I have the two at 8 and 9, but I fully expect both to climb the list over time.  I weight actual accomplishment over expected accomplishment, though the latter does factor in significantly.

There’s a 1.0 rWAR threshold to make the list, and Jordan Westburg is the sole new debut, at the bottom of the list right now but with a lot of room to move up.  Grayson Rodriguez (0.9 rWAR) fell just short of debuting on the list, and has a good shot to debut in a relatively high spot in 2024.

As always, I’d be interested to know who you think I’ve ranked too high or too low.

1. Manny Machado, 1:3 pick 2010, 54.9 rWAR (2.9 in 2023)

2. Nick Markakis, 1:7 pick 2003, 33.6 rWAR

3. Jake Arrieta, 5:5 pick 2007, 23.3 rWAR 

4. Kevin Gausman, 1:4 pick 2012, 23.1 rWAR (3.4 in 2023)

5. Zach Britton, 3:9 pick 2006, 14.0 rWAR 

6. Matt Wieters, 1:5 pick 2007, 18.2 rWAR.

7.  Josh Hader, 19:4 pick 2012, 11.7 rWAR (2.4 in 2023)

*8. Gunnar Henderson, 2:1 pick 2019, 7.2 rWAR (6.3 in 2023)

9.  Ashley Rutschman, 1:1 pick 2019, 9.6 rWAR (4.3 in 2023)

10.  Cedric Mullins, 13:28 pick 2015, 12.2 rWAR (2.8 in 2023)

11.  John Means, 11:16 pick 2014, 9.8 rWAR (0.7 in 2023)

12. Zach Davies, 26:4 pick 2010, 8.2 rWAR (-1.5 in 2023)

13.  Mike Yastrzemski, 14:23 pick 2013, 11.9 rWAR (2.3 in 2023)

*14.  Christian Walker, 4:4 pick 2012, 12.6 rWAR (3.8 in 2023)

15. Trey Mancini, 8:23 pick 2013, 8.4 rWAR (-1.4 in 2023)

*16.  Austin Hays, 3:14 pick 2016, 9.1 rWAR (2.6 in 2022)

17.  Mychal Givens, 2:5 pick 2009, 8.4 rWAR (-0.4 in 2023)

18.  Jim Johnson, 5:7 pick 2001, 8.1 rWAR

19.   David Hernandez, 16:13 pick, 2005, 4.5 rWAR

20.  Dylan Bundy, 1:4 pick 2011, 8.6 rWAR 

21. Caleb Joseph, 7:4 pick 2008, 4.6 rWAR

*22.  Jonah Heim, 4:23 pick 2013, 5.3 rWAR (2.9 in 2023

*23.   Ryan Mountcastle, 1:36 pick 2015, 5.2 rWAR (2.1 in 2023)

24.  John Maine, 6:4 pick 2002, 4.0 rWAR

*25.  Tanner Scott, 6:16 pick 2014, 4.6 rWAR (3.6 in 2023)

26.  Brad Bergesen, 4:8 pick 2004, 2.9 rWAR

27.  Chris Ray, 3:7 pick 2003, 3.1 rWAR

28.  Mike Fontenot, 1:19 pick 2001, 4.2 rWAR

29.  Nolan Reimold, 2:13 pick 2005, 2.8 rWAR

*30.  Hunter Harvey, 1:22 pick 2013, 3.4 rWAR (1.9 in 2023)

31.  Donnie Hart, 27:23 pick 2013, 1.8 rWAR

32.  Steven Brault, 11:23 pick 2013, 1.8 rWAR 

33.  Brian Matusz, 1:4 pick 2008, 2.1 rWAR

34.  Oliver Drake, 43:4 pick 2008, 1.1 rWAR

35.  Parker Bridwell, 9:3 pick 2010, 1.3 rWAR

36.  Jordan Westburg, 1:30 pick 2020, 1.2 rWAR

 

 

Gunnar and Adley will be at the top of this list eventually 

[Frobby]

Just now, tntoriole said:

Gunnar and Adley will be at the top of this list eventually 

Knocking off Manny won’t be easy.  

[tntoriole]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

Here's my updated list of the O’s top draft picks of the 21st century.  Players who moved up from last year are marked with an asterisk.   In compliling the list, I consider (1) what the player has achieved, (2) where the player is in his career and what he is likely to achieve, and (3) where the player was drafted.   

The big mover this year was Gunnar, who I jumped from 16 to 8 based on his 6.3 rWAR rookie campaign.  I placed him just ahead of Adley, even though Adley has a higher career rWAR to date, based on his lower draft position and his age.  Right now I have the two at 8 and 9, but I fully expect both to climb the list over time.  I weight actual accomplishment over expected accomplishment, though the latter does factor in significantly.

There’s a 1.0 rWAR threshold to make the list, and Jordan Westburg is the sole new debut, at the bottom of the list right now but with a lot of room to move up.  Grayson Rodriguez (0.9 rWAR) fell just short of debuting on the list, and has a good shot to debut in a relatively high spot in 2024.

As always, I’d be interested to know who you think I’ve ranked too high or too low.

1. Manny Machado, 1:3 pick 2010, 54.9 rWAR (2.9 in 2023)

2. Nick Markakis, 1:7 pick 2003, 33.6 rWAR

3. Jake Arrieta, 5:5 pick 2007, 23.3 rWAR 

4. Kevin Gausman, 1:4 pick 2012, 23.1 rWAR (3.4 in 2023)

5. Zach Britton, 3:9 pick 2006, 14.0 rWAR 

6. Matt Wieters, 1:5 pick 2007, 18.2 rWAR.

7.  Josh Hader, 19:4 pick 2012, 11.7 rWAR (2.4 in 2023)

*8. Gunnar Henderson, 2:1 pick 2019, 7.2 rWAR (6.3 in 2023)

9.  Ashley Rutschman, 1:1 pick 2019, 9.6 rWAR (4.3 in 2023)

10.  Cedric Mullins, 13:28 pick 2015, 12.2 rWAR (2.8 in 2023)

11.  John Means, 11:16 pick 2014, 9.8 rWAR (0.7 in 2023)

12. Zach Davies, 26:4 pick 2010, 8.2 rWAR (-1.5 in 2023)

13.  Mike Yastrzemski, 14:23 pick 2013, 11.9 rWAR (2.3 in 2023)

*14.  Christian Walker, 4:4 pick 2012, 12.6 rWAR (3.8 in 2023)

15. Trey Mancini, 8:23 pick 2013, 8.4 rWAR (-1.4 in 2023)

*16.  Austin Hays, 3:14 pick 2016, 9.1 rWAR (2.6 in 2022)

17.  Mychal Givens, 2:5 pick 2009, 8.4 rWAR (-0.4 in 2023)

18.  Jim Johnson, 5:7 pick 2001, 8.1 rWAR

19.   David Hernandez, 16:13 pick, 2005, 4.5 rWAR

20.  Dylan Bundy, 1:4 pick 2011, 8.6 rWAR 

21. Caleb Joseph, 7:4 pick 2008, 4.6 rWAR

*22.  Jonah Heim, 4:23 pick 2013, 5.3 rWAR (2.9 in 2023

*23.   Ryan Mountcastle, 1:36 pick 2015, 5.2 rWAR (2.1 in 2023)

24.  John Maine, 6:4 pick 2002, 4.0 rWAR

*25.  Tanner Scott, 6:16 pick 2014, 4.6 rWAR (3.6 in 2023)

26.  Brad Bergesen, 4:8 pick 2004, 2.9 rWAR

27.  Chris Ray, 3:7 pick 2003, 3.1 rWAR

28.  Mike Fontenot, 1:19 pick 2001, 4.2 rWAR

29.  Nolan Reimold, 2:13 pick 2005, 2.8 rWAR

*30.  Hunter Harvey, 1:22 pick 2013, 3.4 rWAR (1.9 in 2023)

31.  Donnie Hart, 27:23 pick 2013, 1.8 rWAR

32.  Steven Brault, 11:23 pick 2013, 1.8 rWAR 

33.  Brian Matusz, 1:4 pick 2008, 2.1 rWAR

34.  Oliver Drake, 43:4 pick 2008, 1.1 rWAR

35.  Parker Bridwell, 9:3 pick 2010, 1.3 rWAR

36.  Jordan Westburg, 1:30 pick 2020, 1.2 rWAR

 

 

Great list, thanks!! It would be interesting to break down the WAR as Oriole vs WAR somewhere else..the Arrieta, Machado, Hader, Walker, Heims  etc .. 

[Frobby]

Just now, tntoriole said:

Great list, thanks!! It would be interesting to break down the WAR as Oriole vs WAR somewhere else..the Arrieta, Machado, Hader, Walker, Heims  etc .. 

it’s pretty bad, though I suspect that’s true for a lot of teams.  

[tntoriole]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

it’s pretty bad, though I suspect that’s true for a lot of teams.  

Thus Sig Mejdal’s hold all your own prospects philosophy lol ..but no team can do that in free agent era. 

[Matt Bennett]

DFA'ing Hunter Harvey was one of Elias' few mistakes. That along with the Mike Yaz trade and the Richard Bleier trade (pretty un-necessary in my opinion although it wouldn't have changed much if at any on the O's actual competitive teams). Often, injury prone players are injury prone, until they aren't. But I remember there was some kind of club-house comment or personality dispute with Harvey. 

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, Matt Bennett said:

DFA'ing Hunter Harvey was one of Elias' few mistakes. That along with the Mike Yaz trade and the Richard Bleier trade (pretty un-necessary in my opinion although it wouldn't have changed much if at any on the O's actual competitive teams). Often, injury prone players are injury prone, until they aren't. But I remember there was some kind of club-house comment or personality dispute with Harvey. 

Maybe could add the Tanner Scott trade on that.

And of course the Flaherty trade.