TT: How bad are the Orioles?

[Tony-OH]

Over last 30 games the Orioles are 9-21(.300) and have been outscored 195-133. They only have two wins of more than two runs over this span and only one in a regular 9-inning game (Mancini's walk off three-run homer being the other). 

They've gone from tied for 1st place to 7.5 games back and a half game out of last place.

Starters ERA during this stretch

Dylan Bundy        4.14 in 6 starts
Wade Miley          5.56 in 7 starts
Kevin Gausman   6.32 in 6 starts
Chris Tillman        9.59 in 6 starts
Alec Asher           9.87 in 4 starts
Ubaldo Jimenez 11.00 in 2 starts

Relievers ERA
Darren O'day      2.00 in 9 games with 17 Ks in 9 innings before going on DL
Mychal Givens    3.21 in 13 games over 14 innings. 1 blown save
Brad Brach          3.86 with 3 saves and two blown saves that started this run.
Stefan Crichton   7.56 in 4 games over 8.1 IP
Donnie Hart         8.10 in  8 games, 6.2 IP, .370 BAVG

Hitters slash lines
Jonathan Schoop  .269/.331/.504/.835
Mark Trumbo         .283/.358/.467/.825
Chris Davis            .213/.286/.528/.813
Trey Mancini          .274/.346/.466/.811
Caleb Joseph        .281/.339/.456/.795
Wellington Castillo .270/.303/.413/.716
Adam Jones          .250/.271/.442/.713
Seth Smith            .229/.293/.373/.667
Manny Machado   .210/.259/.390/.649
JJ Hardy               .214/.243/.330/.573

With four hitters OPSing over .800 the hitting hasn't been too bad overall despite Manny's struggles and the hole in the lineup that is known as the Hardy hole. The main bullpen members have been decent. All of Brach's runs given up over this span were in those two blown saves that started this slide.

Quite simply, you can't run out the worse starting rotation in baseball and expect to win. When your best starter has a 4.14 ERA in the last month, things have gone real, real bad.

Just go down and get some depth from AAA right?

Norfolk Tides starters ERA
Mike Wright      4.19 in 10 starts
Tyler Wilson     4.78 in 7 starts
Jayson Aquino 5.08 in 8 starts
Jordan Kipper  5.59 in 7 starts
Chris Lee         6.28 in 12 starts
Gabriel Ynoa   6.93 in 9 starts

In other words, the two guys who have already failed as big league starters are the best two current options.

It's going to be a long summer in Baltimore.

 

 

 

[Can_of_corn]

Summer?  It's going to be a long five years. (Five years was my version of being optimistic)

[maybenxtyr]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Summer?  It's going to be a long five years. (Five years was my version of being optimistic)

Yeah...I don't see this being flipped in 5 years either. You would almost be in a better position if You were an expansion team.

[blid]

We didn't even know if Bundy was going to give us anything going into this season.  Now it turns out he's the only capable starter on the staff!  Hard to believe but it could be even worse.

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, maybenxtyr said:

Yeah...I don't see this being flipped in 5 years either. You would almost be in a better position if You were an expansion team.

They have the full Phillies package going on.

1. Limited trade value on current roster
2. Weak farm system with a lack of impact players
3. Unmovable contracts tying up payroll

[Dr. Unk]

Now will Duquette be held accountable for the lack of farm talent?

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Dr. Unk said:

Now will Duquette be held accountable for the lack of farm talent?

By whom?

The fans? - Sure the informed ones

Ownership? - As far as we know they were onboard with his process.

Media? - When does the local media hold anyone accountable?  I expect to see something from Fangraphs and the National media.

[maybenxtyr]

8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

They have the full Phillies package going on.

1. Limited trade value on current roster
2. Weak farm system with a lack of impact players
3. Unmovable contracts tying up payroll

Winning more than losing was nice but we didn't get to enjoy the ultimate prize like Philly did.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, maybenxtyr said:

Winning more than losing was nice but we didn't get to enjoy the ultimate prize like Philly did.

What bothers me is it was so avoidable.  Not that keeping things going at a >500 rate was assured but they could have avoided what looks to be a complete collapse of the whole system.

[clapdiddy]

12 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

They have the full Phillies package going on.

1. Limited trade value on current roster
2. Weak farm system with a lack of impact players
3. Unmovable contracts tying up payroll

Let's hope they realize the opportunity to move any and all players that could be dealt to improve this moribund system.   

 

[FlipTheBird]

8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

By whom?

The fans? - Sure the informed ones

Ownership? - As far as we know they were onboard with his process.

Media? - When does the local media hold anyone accountable?  I expect to see something from Fangraphs and the National media.

Well, FanGraphs will probably just run a story with "We Are the Champions" embedded for finally getting it right, after the O's upset their projections 5 years running.

[Tx Oriole]

30 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Over last 30 games the Orioles are 9-21(.300) and have been outscored 195-133. They only have two wins of more than two runs over this span and only one in a regular 9-inning game (Mancini's walk off three-run homer being the other). 

They've gone from tied for 1st place to 7.5 games back and a half game out of last place.

Starters ERA during this stretch

Dylan Bundy        4.14 in 6 starts
Wade Miley          5.56 in 7 starts
Kevin Gausman   6.32 in 6 starts
Chris Tillman        9.59 in 6 starts
Alec Asher           9.87 in 4 starts
Ubaldo Jimenez 11.00 in 2 starts

Relievers ERA
Darren O'day      2.00 in 9 games with 17 Ks in 9 innings before going on DL
Mychal Givens    3.21 in 13 games over 14 innings. 1 blown save
Brad Brach          3.86 with 3 saves and two blown saves that started this run.
Stefan Crichton   7.56 in 4 games over 8.1 IP
Donnie Hart         8.10 in  8 games, 6.2 IP, .370 BAVG

Hitters slash lines
Jonathan Schoop  .269/.331/.504/.835
Mark Trumbo         .283/.358/.467/.825
Chris Davis            .213/.286/.528/.813
Trey Mancini          .274/.346/.466/.811
Caleb Joseph        .281/.339/.456/.795
Wellington Castillo .270/.303/.413/.716
Adam Jones          .250/.271/.442/.713
Seth Smith            .229/.293/.373/.667
Manny Machado   .210/.259/.390/.649
JJ Hardy               .214/.243/.330/.573

With four hitters OPSing over .800 the hitting hasn't been too bad overall despite Manny's struggles and the hole in the lineup that is known as the Hardy hole. The main bullpen members have been decent. All of Brach's runs given up over this span were in those two blown saves that started this slide.

Quite simply, you can't run out the worse starting rotation in baseball and expect to win. When your best starter has a 4.14 ERA in the last month, things have gone real, real bad.

Just go down and get some depth from AAA right?

Norfolk Tides starters ERA
Mike Wright      4.19 in 10 starts
Tyler Wilson     4.78 in 7 starts
Jayson Aquino 5.08 in 8 starts
Jordan Kipper  5.59 in 7 starts
Chris Lee         6.28 in 12 starts
Gabriel Ynoa   6.93 in 9 starts

In other words, the two guys who have already failed as big league starters are the best two current options.

It's going to be a long summer in Baltimore.

 

 

 

Pretty bad. Don't see them coming out of this. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, birdwatcher55 said:

I"m of the opinion a rebuild would only take 2 years with the right moves by management. We have a lot of quality to offer up at deadline. The question is who will be that management?

A lot of quality?  Two years?  Care to share?

I don't see a lot of quality unless folks like Schoop, Gausman and Bundy are on the block. 

I don't see how two years is feasible if folks like Schoop, Gausman and Bundy are on the block.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, clapdiddy said:

Let's hope they realize the opportunity to move any and all players that could be dealt to improve this moribund system.   

 

I think we are going to hear how some players had down years and how injuries hurt the team and how they have confidence in the core going forward.

That is assuming of course that at some point the bleeding stops and they settle in as an ordinary, not very good team.

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, FlipTheBird said:

Well, FanGraphs will probably just run a story with "We Are the Champions" embedded for finally getting it right, after the O's upset their projections 5 years running.

I read Fangraphs a lot and don't for a minute think they have anything against the O's or begrudge them exceeding their projections.