Fangraphs KATOH Projections for Top 100 Prospects

[Tony-OH]

6 minutes ago, clapdiddy said:

Could he be a passable second baseman?

I don't think he has the first step quickness or arm to make up for that lack of quickness. Schoop gets away with being a second basemane because he arm makes up for the balls he can't get to for now.

[clapdiddy]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

I don't think he has the first step quickness or arm to make up for that lack of quickness. Schoop gets away with being a second basemane because he arm makes up for the balls he can't get to for now.

So, it's looking like he's a first baseman or outfielder?   

[Can_of_corn]

30 minutes ago, clapdiddy said:

So, it's looking like he's a first baseman or outfielder?   

I'd say left field only considering his arm.

[weams]

On 2/13/2018 at 10:34 AM, birdwatcher55 said:

Call it what you want but this kid seems pretty solid. If he's an average fielder, so what. There are a lot of those guys in MLB.

Mountcastle will outperform most of these guys as a Major Leaguer. Speed and defense don't keep you in the league for five years. But it is just a projection system. And it doesn't quite know these things. 

[weams]

 

[BohKnowsBmore]

On 2/13/2018 at 10:54 PM, ChuckS said:

I know KATOH is fairly new, but I'd like to see how players that have reached the majors have performed relative to their prospect status. 

I'm guessing favorable.  

I have nothing to base this on rather than I believe in performance (especially in the upper minors) over unrealized tools/potential.  They also had Mancini in their top 100 last year where as no other major publication had him in there. 

I like Lowther.  Command and just misses bats, stuff aside.  

Well, there's a survivor-bias aspect to that.  Those that reach the majors are clearly succeeding in some fashion (at least relative to those who don't make it to the show).  KATOH is projecting the mean of all possible states of the world (according to its projections).  So, if a guy has a 50% shot at being a 10 WAR guy in his first six seasons and a 50% shot at being a 0 WAR guy, KATOH lists him as a 5 WAR projection.  If he fulfills that 10 WAR possibility, it's not because KATOH necessarily "undervalued" him.

[BohKnowsBmore]

6 hours ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

Well, there's a survivor-bias aspect to that.  Those that reach the majors are clearly succeeding in some fashion (at least relative to those who don't make it to the show).  KATOH is projecting the mean of all possible states of the world (according to its projections).  So, if a guy has a 50% shot at being a 10 WAR guy in his first six seasons and a 50% shot at being a 0 WAR guy, KATOH lists him as a 5 WAR projection.  If he fulfills that 10 WAR possibility, it's not because KATOH necessarily "undervalued" him.

And for the record, I realize how this can sound like a cop-out (similar to Dave Cameron's normal distribution rant re: O's success and why he was still correct).  That said, I think over larger samples, there are ways that you can determine whether a system like KATOH systematically overrates or underrates guys.  

Using available information, I would say that the KATOH results re: O's prospects may indicate that the system's subjective ratings could (or maybe not) be suffering from some underlying biases (i.e. a preconceived notion that the O's system sucks), particularly (and somewhat ironically) on the part of Fangraphs.

[Frobby]

KATOH is dead anyhow.    Chris Mitchell went to work for a major league team.