Will Chris Davis make it to 502 PA?

[Tx Oriole]

On 7/12/2018 at 8:16 AM, Aglets said:

Articles have been written galore about Chris Davis having an absolutely terrible season.  On pace for the worst season in history for a qualified position player.

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/23729870/real-not-chris-davis-worst-season-all

https://www.12up.com/posts/6086758-chris-davis-still-on-pace-to-post-worst-mlb-season-of-all-time-by-a-wide-margin

You get the idea.

When Adam Dunn was on pace for a similar horrific year awhile back, the White Sox benched him in September to save his dignity.  He ended that season with 496 PA, which I'm sure was not a coincidence.

You need 502 PA to qualify for the batting title...........will Chris Davis get there?

He is currently on pace for 537 or so (308 through 93 team games) but unless he has another extended absence that number will likely creep up.

So will they have mercy on him?   If you were Buck.....would you?

I just hope he doesn't. 

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, Tx Oriole said:

I just hope he doesn't. 

I hope he does.

It would be pretty gutless to sit him just so he doesn't set records.

[Aglets]

8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I hope he does.

It would be pretty gutless to sit him just so he doesn't set records.

There's definitely some mental gymnastics going on in either case, I think.

The argument to bench him would be simply that he is not one of the best 9 hitters on the team (obvious) and almost certainly not the best choice thus to play 1B or DH.

The argument for playing him appears to be............... he's making a lot of money?   Buck likes his guys?       

I'm not sure I see the logic to keep doing a stupid thing over and over again and expecting a different result.    Fun fact:   Guess who's batting cleanup tonight?       

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Aglets said:

There's definitely some mental gymnastics going on in either case, I think.

The argument to bench him would be simply that he is not one of the best 9 hitters on the team (obvious) and almost certainly not the best choice thus to play 1B or DH.

The argument for playing him appears to be............... he's making a lot of money?   Buck likes his guys?       

I'm not sure I see the logic to keep doing a stupid thing over and over again and expecting a different result.    Fun fact:   Guess who's batting cleanup tonight?       

At this point I don't want a different result.  I want to see just how bad it can be.

He can have his dead man's bounce next season.

[jabba72]

31 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

At this point I don't want a different result.  I want to see just how bad it can be.

He can have his dead man's bounce next season.

Isnt that what he's doing this year? I dont care if he sets the record or not, His OPS is steadily rising to where it wouldnt surprise me if he finishes with an OPS near .650, which is really bad, just not record setting bad. 

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, jabba72 said:

Isnt that what he's doing this year? I dont care if he sets the record or not, His OPS is steadily rising to where it wouldnt surprise me if he finishes with an OPS near .650, which is really bad, just not record setting bad. 

He's at 557 with 448 PA.  He's going to have to really heat up to get anywhere near 650.

[Tx Oriole]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

I hope he does.

It would be pretty gutless to sit him just so he doesn't set records.

Yes you are right.

[Hallas]

33 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

He's at 557 with 448 PA.  He's going to have to really heat up to get anywhere near 650.

If he goes 30 for 80 over the next 100 PA with 20 walks, 10 HR and 5 2B, he'll have an .686 OPS.

He had 2 months like that in 2013, and 1 month like that in 2015.  Not that my hopes are particularly high, but he could do it.

[Frobby]

52 minutes ago, jabba72 said:

Isnt that what he's doing this year? I dont care if he sets the record or not, His OPS is steadily rising to where it wouldnt surprise me if he finishes with an OPS near .650, which is really bad, just not record setting bad. 

 

44 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

He's at 557 with 448 PA.  He's going to have to really heat up to get anywhere near 650.

First of all, how is his OPS “steadily  rising?”    I guess it has improved incrementally (.695 in July, .609 in August), but at a snail’s pace.   

Assume Davis plays every game the rest of the year and accrues another 125 PA.    To get from .557 to .650 in that time, he’d have to post about a .983 OPS the rest of the season.   To get to .600, he’d have to post about .754 the rest of the way.    I could imagine the latter happening, though I’d probably give it less than a 10% chance.    The chance of the former is infinitesimal.

[Santandah]

And if he does go on that tear, one could argue that would be bad for the Orioles as a franchise. No one is going to openly root for losses. But I think we're all checking the race to the top of the draft with KC. 

How lousy would that be if Davis helps tank the season and then helps cost the #1 pick?

#CellarDwellerProblems

[SteveA]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I hope he does.

It would be pretty gutless to sit him just so he doesn't set records.

It's been done a few times historically with 19-loss starting pitchers.

[SteveA]

11 minutes ago, Frobby said:

 

First of all, how is his OPS “steadily  rising?”    I guess it has improved incrementally (.695 in July, .609 in August), but at a snail’s pace.   

Assume Davis plays every game the rest of the year and accrues another 125 PA.    To get from .557 to .650 in that time, he’d have to post about a .983 OPS the rest of the season.   To get to .600, he’d have to post about .754 the rest of the way.    I could imagine the latter happening, though I’d probably give it less than a 10% chance.    The chance of the former is infinitesimal.

He's in the cleanup spot tonight, first time he's been that high in quite a while.

[Frobby]

14 minutes ago, Santandah said:

And if he does go on that tear, one could argue that would be bad for the Orioles as a franchise. No one is going to openly root for losses. But I think we're all checking the race to the top of the draft with KC. 

How lousy would that be if Davis helps tank the season and then helps cost the #1 pick?

#CellarDwellerProblems

If Davis went on that tear I’d be happy about it, because it would suggest there’s some possibility that he’d contribute something next year and after, and maybe be tradable eventually if we ate enough of his contract.    But I’ll worry about it when it happens (which it won’t).   

[25 Nuggets]

It's hard to conceive of a player hitting 20 home runs in a season with an OPS under .550, but I think it's possible with this guy.

[OriolesMagic83]

4 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

At this point I don't want a different result.  I want to see just how bad it can be.

He can have his dead man's bounce next season.

I prefer dead cat bounce