A Little Perspective

[Camden_yardbird]

I get it.  It's the beginning of the season, it's easy to get high or low on a player.  But remember stats don't normalize for awhile.  So here are fangraphs stat normalization amounts where stats start to become reliable indicators.  These are great to remember when looking at early season returns or when evaluating the many prospects we are sure to see.

Offense
60 PA: Strikeout rate
120 PA: Walk rate
170 PA: HR rate
460 PA: OBP
160 AB: ISO
320 AB: SLG
910 AB: AVG
80 BIP: GB rate
80 BIP: FB rate
600 BIP: LD rate
820 BIP: BABIP
50 FBs: HR per FB

Pitching

70 BF: Strikeout rate
170 BF: Walk rate
540 BF: OBP
1320 BF: HR rate
550 AB: SLG
630 AB: ISO
630 BF: AVG
70 BIP: GB rate
70 BIP: FB rate
650 BIP: LD rate
2000 BIP: BABIP
400 FB: HR per FB

 

[Frobby]

When I was a kid I followed the Rod Carew Rule — until Carew was leading the league in batting, all stats were meaningless.   

Otherwise, I usually start paying attention to stats after about two months.   

In Chris Davis’ case, it’s about more than this year's stats.    He’s been in a downward spiral for three years and just looks like he’s totally lost up there.    I’ve literally never seen a veteran player look so overmatched.

 

[Luke-OH]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

When I was a kid I followed the Rod Carew Rule — until Carew was leading the league in batting, all stats were meaningless.   

Otherwise, I usually start paying attention to stats after about two months.   

In Chris Davis’ case, it’s about more than this year's stats.    He’s been in a downward spiral for three years and just looks like he’s totally lost up there.    I’ve literally never seen a veteran player look so overmatched.

 

Yeah, we have all the data we need with Davis, it's 700+ PA of hideously bad performance now on the wrong side of 30 with all the eye tests and statcast data backing up the performance stats.

[UpstateNYfan]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

When I was a kid I followed the Rod Carew Rule — until Carew was leading the league in batting, all stats were meaningless.   

Otherwise, I usually start paying attention to stats after about two months.   

In Chris Davis’ case, it’s about more than this year's stats.    He’s been in a downward spiral for three years and just looks like he’s totally lost up there.    I’ve literally never seen a veteran player look so overmatched.

 

Davis = Steve Blass Disease

[ArtVanDelay]

30 minutes ago, Frobby said:

When I was a kid I followed the Rod Carew Rule — until Carew was leading the league in batting, all stats were meaningless.   

Otherwise, I usually start paying attention to stats after about two months.   

In Chris Davis’ case, it’s about more than this year's stats.    He’s been in a downward spiral for three years and just looks like he’s totally lost up there.    I’ve literally never seen a veteran player look so overmatched.

 

Now it's when Mike Trout starts leading the league in WAR. 

[Philip]

In today’s newspaper, which is the Dallas paper and doesn’t really care about Baltimore, it was pointed out that going back to last year, Davis has had 38 straight at bats without a hit.

The sad thing is that even if he does get a hit, whether it’s a single or a double and a homerun, everybody’s going to know that it’s the clock blinking 12 that is right twice a day. In 2037, when he gets his last check, I don’t think he will feel guilty about having been terrible. He will just shrug his shoulders and buy another island.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

31 minutes ago, Frobby said:

When I was a kid I followed the Rod Carew Rule — until Carew was leading the league in batting, all stats were meaningless.   

Otherwise, I usually start paying attention to stats after about two months.   

In Chris Davis’ case, it’s about more than this year's stats.    He’s been in a downward spiral for three years and just looks like he’s totally lost up there.    I’ve literally never seen a veteran player look so overmatched.

 

I've also never seen a player who seemingly has no bottom to how bad it gets. Davis is to the point now where he can't even get a hit. He is 2 for his last 50 at bats.  It's one thing to be 40 years old and look feeble, but Davis should be in the tail end of his prime.

[weams]

3 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

I've also never seen a player who seemingly has no bottom to how bad it gets. Davis is to the point now where he can't even get a hit. He is 2 for his last 50 at bats.  It's one thing to be 40 years old and look feeble, but Davis should be in the tail end of his prime.

It's possible that he was never really that good.  Maybe he was strong, he was fortunate, and focused for a while. 

[Can_of_corn]

 

[Camden_yardbird]

43 minutes ago, weams said:

It's possible that he was never really that good.  Maybe he was strong, he was fortunate, and focused for a while. 

I really don't get it.  You see him and the results (which at this point are signficant) and you know you are looking at the husk of a player.  But even given that, some of his batted ball stats (LD%, HR/FB, hard hit rate) didn't crater until last year.  There is clearly some mental, clearly something physical and sadly will probably end up as a cautionary tale.  

[atomic]

57 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

I've also never seen a player who seemingly has no bottom to how bad it gets. Davis is to the point now where he can't even get a hit. He is 2 for his last 50 at bats.  It's one thing to be 40 years old and look feeble, but Davis should be in the tail end of his prime.

Rich Dauer had 3 hits in his first 67 plate appearances.  All singles. 

[weams]

1 minute ago, atomic said:

Rich Dauer had 3 hits in his first 67 plate appearances.  All singles. 

Rich Dauer never hit 50 homers on multiple occasions. 

[atomic]

3 minutes ago, weams said:

Rich Dauer never hit 50 homers on multiple occasions. 

Rich Dauer 9 World Series hits.  Chris Davis 0.  

[atomic]

5 minutes ago, weams said:

Rich Dauer never hit 50 homers on multiple occasions. 

Rich Dauer age 32 OPS:  540.   

Chris Davis age 32 OPS : 539

If only Dauer had signed a 7 year contract that wouldn't have been his last year. 

[weams]

2 minutes ago, atomic said:

Rich Dauer 9 World Series hits.  Chris Davis 0.  

Rick Dempsey 12 World Series hits.

Mike Trout 0