Trade value 2019

[Philip]

This is a general discussion post discussing who on the team has meaningful trade value for this year,  and how much. This is a basic question that probably been started before, in which case I hope the moderators will move this comment to that post. Until then, onward!

I really want to ask about Mancini. He’s hitting well, and has already amassed 1.1 fWAR(for comparison, Mike Trout has 1.8) Mancini’s defense is slightly above average at 1B, slightly below average(but improved) in the COF. He’s still at league minimum pay, so his trade value has doubtless gone up since day 1.

Is he worth anything meaningful?

[Frobby]

I think he’ll have to keep hitting at a good clip through mid-season.    

[interloper]

34 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think he’ll have to keep hitting at a good clip through mid-season.    

Yeah I think we're about a month (or more) away from really being able to talk trade value. Remember, Schoop started off really poorly last year, then got insanely hot right before the trade deadline, and we cleaned up. The opposite could happen for a guy like Mancini. It's all about timing. 

Cashner is a guy you hope keeps it rolling out there and gets you a minor leaguer of some sort. 

Givens I think we should move as fast as possible if he starts to get hot. 

[nate22]

11 minutes ago, interloper said:

Yeah I think we're about a month (or more) away from really being able to talk trade value. Remember, Schoop started off really poorly last year, then got insanely hot right before the trade deadline, and we cleaned up. The opposite could happen for a guy like Mancini. It's all about timing. 

Cashner is a guy you hope keeps it rolling out there and gets you a minor leaguer of some sort. 

Givens I think we should move as fast as possible if he starts to get hot. 

Hopefully he gets really hot. The Braves are having issues with the back of their pen.

[DrungoHazewood]

Trade value is what a team can realistically expect to get out of a player.  For Mancini he's a 115 OPS+ first baseman/LFer.  He'll have to keep hitting well above his established value to be seen as more than a average 27-year-old first baseman.

If you make a list of first basemen/LF/DHs with a 115ish OPS+ in their career you get a lot of names.  Chris Davis, Kendrys Morales, Steve Pearce, Evan Gattis, Victor Martinez, Mike Morse, Mike Napoli, Justin Morneau, Billy Butler, Paul Konerko, Alfonso Soriano, Luke Scott, Aubrey Huff. Jack Cust. Matt Stairs. Cliff Floyd. Kevin Millar. Tino Martinez.

[mdbdotcom]

Three months from the trade deadline. Who knows? Look at the Yankees presumed starters in spring training. They are all on the IL. Anything can happen between now and July, and a lot will.

[interloper]

1 minute ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Trade value is what a team can realistically expect to get out of a player.  For Mancini he's a 115 OPS+ first baseman/LFer.  He'll have to keep hitting well above his established value to be seen as more than a average 27-year-old first baseman.

If you make a list of first basemen/LF/DHs with a 115ish OPS+ in their career you get a lot of names.  Chris Davis, Kendrys Morales, Steve Pearce, Evan Gattis, Victor Martinez, Mike Morse, Mike Napoli, Justin Morneau, Billy Butler, Paul Konerko, Alfonso Soriano, Luke Scott, Aubrey Huff. Jack Cust. Matt Stairs. Cliff Floyd. Kevin Millar. Tino Martinez.

You're not wrong, but teams aren't going to simply be looking at OPS+ when targeting a guy in a trade. There's a lot more to consider like age, control years, athleticism, clubhouse stuff, their own proprietary projection systems, etc. I think it's fair to say that Trey Mancini isn't Steve Pearce simply because they have similar career OPS+'s. 

[Philip]

How many ~contending teams need a solid 1B? I’m not sure the Rockies are expected to contend anymore, Seattle has Vogelbach, the D-Backs are set for the moment, I can’t think of anyone who needs a first Base guy, but a RF who isn’t horrible might have value. Heck even the Yankees might be happy with him in RF. The Indians, too. 

[Frobby]

21 minutes ago, interloper said:

You're not wrong, but teams aren't going to simply be looking at OPS+ when targeting a guy in a trade. There's a lot more to consider like age, control years, athleticism, clubhouse stuff, their own proprietary projection systems, etc. I think it's fair to say that Trey Mancini isn't Steve Pearce simply because they have similar career OPS+'s. 

Yeah, true.   But I think Mancini is still establishing what his baseline is as a player.   He’s had two very different seasons in the big leagues.    Now he’s off to a great start but how will he be doing three months from now?    I’m certainly not going to assume he’s Paul Goldschmidt just because he’s had an excellent four weeks.   But if he’s posting a .900+ OPS in July, that’s a lot more significant.  

[clapdiddy]

45 minutes ago, nate22 said:

Hopefully he gets really hot. The Braves are having issues with the back of their pen.

I hope that Hyde realizes that Givens is a one-inning pitcher.   

[Camden_yardbird]

2 minutes ago, clapdiddy said:

I hope that Hyde realizes that Givens is a one-inning pitcher.   

That has a lot to do with guys not named Givens.  Not a lot to trust out there right now.

[Slappy]

I'm wondering who we would be more willing to trade between Mancini and Nunez.  They are pretty similar players, pretty good offensively but limited defensively and neither one runs that well.  Doesn't really make sense to keep them both, does it?  Especially if we can get meaningful value from one or the other.

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, clapdiddy said:

I hope that Hyde realizes that Givens is a one-inning pitcher.   

Hyde has not been able to get his bullpen to the point where he’s comfortable leaving the 8th inning to anyone else, even if that means stretching Givens.   And since we rarely are leading in the 8th, the fact that Givens won’t be available the next day isn’t a hindrance.   Givens has not performed well in his second inning of work this year, but he does have a decent track record in multi-inning outings.   Last year he went 2+ seven times, holding opponents scoreless in 5 of those and allowing 1 run in 2.1 another time.  In 2017, he also went 2+ seven times, holding opponents scoreless in six of them.   

[LookinUp]

Relative to where the season started (IMO):

Stock up: Mancini, Cashner, Villar, Means, Nunez, Smith Jr.

Stock down: Bundy, Cobb, Givens

[Frobby]

12 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Relative to where the season started (IMO):

Stock up: Mancini, Cashner, Villar, Means, Nunez, Smith Jr.

Stock down: Bundy, Cobb, Givens

Yeah, but SSS for all concerned, especially Cobb who has only made two starts, one of which was very solid (5.2 IP, 2 R).