If Elias doesn't select Rutschman...what would your reaction be?

[Luke-OH]

1 minute ago, Tx Oriole said:

Old for the draft? 21 is old? Now I’m 70 and I may have lost my ability to add. But I don’t think I did. 

Rutschman is a normal age for a college pick, he’s not old for the draft.

[Ohfan67]

The O's are going to pick Rutschman, so there will be no controversy. 

[atomic]

43 minutes ago, weams said:

Here is what I find to be factual.  There was no 5 at the deadline.

https://www.si.com/mlb/2014/07/23/houston-astros-number-one-pick-brady-aiken-inside-story

If this is true, no apology from you is necessary.  And I believe it to be true. 

 

It is not true.  They offered Aiken more than Correa signed for.  Astroball page 123.  5 million dollars offered 3 minutes before deadline.  Aiken did not respond to any offers.

[Sessh]

I think we should just take the best player available which seems to be Rutschman. I am not too thrilled about taking a catcher because of the knees thing, but we'll be getting his best years hopefully before his knees start to wear down.

As for the Aiken thing, all this talk made me go look it up. It seems Atomic is right about the $5M offer before the deadline. That's a Fangraphs article in 2015, the $5M is also on Aiken's wikipedia page and on several other sites right at the top of the search results.

However, I am not a big fan of holding past mistakes over people's heads unless they prove they are still making the same mistakes. Even if they don't take Rutschman, I will listen to their explanation and reasoning, watch the meltdown on here and draw my own conclusions.

[Tx Oriole]

57 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

The O's are going to pick Rutschman, so there will be no controversy. 

I hope they do.

[weams]

1 hour ago, atomic said:

It is not true.  They offered Aiken more than Correa signed for.  Astroball page 123.  5 million dollars offered 3 minutes before deadline.  Aiken did not respond to any offers.

Maybe. Or you could be wrong. 

[weams]

53 minutes ago, Sessh said:

I think we should just take the best player available which seems to be Rutschman. I am not too thrilled about taking a catcher because of the knees thing, but we'll be getting his best years hopefully before his knees start to wear down.

As for the Aiken thing, all this talk made me go look it up. It seems Atomic is right about the $5M offer before the deadline. That's a Fangraphs article in 2015, the $5M is also on Aiken's wikipedia page and on several other sites right at the top of the search results.

However, I am not a big fan of holding past mistakes over people's heads unless they prove they are still making the same mistakes. Even if they don't take Rutschman, I will listen to their explanation and reasoning, watch the meltdown on here and draw my own conclusions.

I'm willing to consider other source material. But some folks say that ain't so.  Frankly, I don't care. Cimota is not the expert that Saile is. And that's the fact. Calling folks liars for believing different sources is bush. 

[weams]

Is it not possible that Ludnow overruled his brain trust at the last minute if  Atomic is correct?

[Ohfan67]

1 hour ago, atomic said:

It is not true.  They offered Aiken more than Correa signed for.  Astroball page 123.  5 million dollars offered 3 minutes before deadline.  Aiken did not respond to any offers.

Aiken cost himself 2.5 million. Plenty of bad decisions associated with Aiken. 

[Ohfan67]

6 minutes ago, weams said:

I'm willing to consider other source material. But some folks say that ain't so.  Frankly, I don't care. Cimota is not the expert that Saile is. And that's the fact. Calling folks liars for believing different sources is bush. 

A sports illustrated article also reported the 5 million dollar, last minute offer. https://www.si.com/mlb/2014/07/23/houston-astros-number-one-pick-brady-aiken-inside-story

The writer, Ben Reiter, was close enough with the Astros to be in the room during some their final draft discussions. 

[Ohfan67]

All teams make mistakes in the draft. A 1-1 mistake is huge. Especially a 1-1 mistake that cost them other over slot picks. I'm glad that Elias had an experience like that with the Astros. That's a costly way to learn and the Orioles didn't pay the cost. 

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, weams said:

Is it not possible that Ludnow overruled his brain trust at the last minute if  Atomic is correct?

That’s my question.    Was it Elias’ call, or Luhnow’s?

Bottom line, he wouldn’t have been picked first if they’d known about the medical stuff, which they couldn’t have known.    I don’t know how you blame Elias for that.   

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Ohfan67 said:

All teams make mistakes in the draft. A 1-1 mistake is huge. Especially a 1-1 mistake that cost them other over slot picks. I'm glad that Elias had an experience like that with the Astros. That's a costly way to learn and the Orioles didn't pay the cost. 

So what did he learn?   Don’t pick players who have medical issues, even though you can’t know that they have a medical issue?

[Ohfan67]

15 minutes ago, Frobby said:

So what did he learn?   Don’t pick players who have medical issues, even though you can’t know that they have a medical issue?

High school pitchers are risky picks. Trying to get a 1-1 pick to sign under slot so you can overpay later picks can blow up in your face. The Astros draft imploded because of the cascading effects. It may be better to give a hurt kid the money to keep your draft plan in place. Etc.  They tried to salvage their draft strategy at the last minute and failed. I think there’s a lot to learn from the way they handled that draft. 

 

P.s.  I think the biggest lesson is to have a plan that includes all contingencies, especially if you build a house of cards on being able to sign the first pick for under slot. And stick to the plan. By the way, I wasn’t trying to be overly critical. There was a lot of bad luck involved, for sure, but the Astros definitely didn’t seem to have a contingency plan or if they did they didn’t stick to it. 

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

High school pitchers are risky picks. Trying to get a 1-1 pick to sign under slot so you can overpay later picks can blow up in your face. The Astros draft imploded because of the cascading effects. It may be better to give a hurt kid the money to keep your draft plan in place. They tried to salvage their draft strategy at the last minute and failed. I think there’s a lot to learn from the way they handled that draft. 

Seven players the Astros drafted and signed that year have made it to the majors, including the next four guys they drafted after Aiken. That’s an implosion?