My prediction for how the Davis saga ends

[interloper]

2 minutes ago, Philip said:

Thank you for writing this, I think the big problem is “restructuring the contract”. No player of agent in baseball  is going to allow for anything that involves Davis taking less than his contract value. If they different, they would almost certainly have to pay money on the deferment, which would end up costing the team more. 

 I think it is impossible for them to recover from the public relations fiasco, so there’s nothing to be gained by keeping him. We can only put it aside and say, “this is a really bad thing we’re not going to do this anymore.“ Personally I feel very strongly that the super wealthy have a huge Moral obligation to do what they can to help society. I know what I would do, and I am confident that Davis is going to do something as well, but he doesn’t need the team to be involved.

  I strongly feel that the super rich have a Moral obligation to do what they can to help society. I know what I would do, and I am confident that Davis is going to do something as well, but he doesn’t need the team to be involved. Having said that, I agree with your timeline. The team is making its moves and basically ignoring Davis. He is already interfering with the roster, he is already producing nothing, except laughter, so they will release him when they choose to,  But I don’t think it will be the result of any modification of the contract, and I don’t think he’s going to except a position in the front office. He’s the symbol of that stupid past, whether deserved it or not, and keeping him around would be like continuing to meet your ex-wife for lunch every Tuesday for “old time’s sake”

nah. 

Fair points and I totally get not wanting to be reminded of the guy. But I think after a few years without him around, no one will really have any reason to resent the guy. Stuff happens, you know? He's a good dude, I would be totally fine with him being involved with the O's in some small capacity. And I think we'd all feel better about him knowing he was using a portion of that remaining salary for something good. At least I would. 

Restructuring the contract would indeed be the biggest stretch of my prediction. However, it has been done. Cespedes restructured his contract as recently as this offseason (https://www.northjersey.com/story/sports/mlb/mets/2019/12/13/yoenis-cespedes-contract-mets-reach-restructure-agreement-2020/2641291001/), although that's mostly due to injuries. 

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, Philip said:

Thank you for writing this, I think the big problem is “restructuring the contract”. No player of agent in baseball  is going to allow for anything that involves Davis taking less than his contract value. If they different, they would almost certainly have to pay money on the deferment, which would end up costing the team more. 

 

 

I see this a lot.

If Davis agrees how does anyone else stop it?

Guys do occasionally accept buyouts or retire leaving money on the table.

I don't think it is going to happen in this case but agents can't "not allow" it.  The MLBPA can't "not allow" it.

[interloper]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I see this a lot.

If Davis agrees how does anyone else stop it?

Guys do occasionally accept buyouts or retire leaving money on the table.

I don't think it is going to happen in this case but agents can't "not allow" it.  The MLBPA can't "not allow" it.

Right. My whole OP hinges on the fact that Davis comes to terms with the fact that he's done. Given that, his options are retire and leave money on the table, mope and get released and do nothing but collect a check, or collect most of that money but do something productive and noteworthy. 

If he goes to Boras and says he's done and wants to move some of that salary off the books and onto charities, why would Boras stop him?

[7Mo]

9 minutes ago, interloper said:

Right. My whole OP hinges on the fact that Davis comes to terms with the fact that he's done. Given that, his options are retire and leave money on the table, mope and get released and do nothing but collect a check, or collect most of that money but do something productive and noteworthy. 

If he goes to Boras and says he's done and wants to move some of that salary off the books and onto charities, why would Boras stop him?

Good OP. Thanks @interloper

It's a mystery to me why Davis has not yet come to terms with the fact that he's done. I agree that Davis gets ST and 2 months into the season to prove he's made changes and improvements. As you said, I question his work ethic, or belief that big changes are needed. Therefore, I don't expect any change in performance. 

I'd like to believe that the entirety of 2020 isn't necessary for Davis and the O's to reach some compromise as you suggest. He would still get every penny, but hopefully defer more and he gets some front office job involving charitable organizations. It's probably more realistic to believe your post, that it occurs after the 2020 season.

Having said that, I don't see how a guy can fail to perform over the period that he has, sit on the bench for the period he has, and NOT be willing to do whatever was necessary to make massive swing changes or agree to ride off into the sunset. 

I agree with the OP but I'm hopeful that things happen before the end of 2020 although I doubt they do. 

[sportsfan8703]

Eventually we're just going to DFA Davis and that will be the end.  At some point he may decide to "give up" some money in order to spend time with his family and avoid the grind of an mlb season.  

0.1% chance we work out a NBA bad contract swap deal with the Giants or Mets.  

[interloper]

2 minutes ago, 7Mo said:

Good OP. Thanks @interloper

It's a mystery to me why Davis has not yet come to terms with the fact that he's done. I agree that Davis gets ST and 2 months into the season to prove he's made changes and improvements. As you said, I question his work ethic, or belief that big changes are needed. Therefore, I don't expect any change in performance. 

I'd like to believe that the entirety of 2020 isn't necessary for Davis and the O's to reach some compromise as you suggest. He would still get every penny, but hopefully defer more and he gets some front office job involving charitable organizations. It's probably more realistic to believe your post, that it occurs after the 2020 season.

Having said that, I don't see how a guy can fail to perform over the period that he has, sit on the bench for the period he has, and NOT be willing to do whatever was necessary to make massive swing changes or agree to ride off into the sunset. 

I agree with the OP but I'm hopeful that things happen before the end of 2020 although I doubt they do. 

Hey thanks. Yeah the bolded above kind of nails it. You'd think he'd already be at the point of either making massive last-ditch changes OR just hanging it up. He's caught in the middle. I don't think he has it in him to try and reinvent himself, as we've seen, and thus his last-ditch effort is simply to believe a good ML player still exists somewhere inside him. I think that's where he's at. He looks at the stat sheet and as recent as 2017 he had an OPS just under .800. A far cry from his hey-day, sure, but I think he'd be thrilled to just get back to that. I think he thinks there's a chance of that - one last chance. He's giving himself one more year mentally, I think, before he succumbs to reality. And as a professional athlete, that's not an entirely unreasonable line of thinking. If they don't believe, that's it. 

[7Mo]

1 minute ago, interloper said:

Hey thanks. Yeah the bolded above kind of nails it. You'd think he'd already be at the point of either making massive last-ditch changes OR just hanging it up. He's caught in the middle. I don't think he has it in him to try and reinvent himself, as we've seen, and thus his last-ditch effort is simply to believe a good ML player still exists somewhere inside him. I think that's where he's at. He looks at the stat sheet and as recent as 2017 he had an OPS just under .800. A far cry from his hey-day, sure, but I think he'd be thrilled to just get back to that. I think he thinks there's a chance of that - one last chance. He's giving himself one more year mentally, I think, before he succumbs to reality. And as a professional athlete, that's not an entirely unreasonable line of thinking. If they don't believe, that's it. 

Agree.

At the end of the season, he made a statement about Elias reaching out to put him with an instructor but he wasn't gonna do that. 

Is that a lack of effort? A lack of understanding? Bad advice? Not caring? Who knows, but I can't imagine he's done anything this offseason to change things. 

I'm amazed he's willing to sit on a bench, with horrific stats, and NOT be willing to change. But at least he's consistent.

[mdbdotcom]

Elias has said that he will be on the team in spring training, but has made no commitment beyond that. I predict that in spring training Chris Davis will demonstrate that he didn't do a lick of work in the offseason and the Orioles will pull the plug. He won't be on the team on opening day unless he has a spring training that is significantly better than the way he played the last two years.

[wildbillhiccup]

 

2 hours ago, interloper said:

 

The failed contract of Chris Davis is one of, if not the, most complicated failed contracts that currently exists in the game today. Not only that, it's one of the most historically bad contracts the game has ever seen. This fact coupled with the Angelos' stance on contracts in general, the fact that the team is in no hurry to win games at present, and perhaps that it was Peter's last big deal all conspires into a potent mixture that has kept Chris Davis on the roster. Obviously, this sucks. It makes the Angelos brothers look bad, it makes Elias seem weaker, and it makes it seem like Peter still has a good deal of pull behind the scenes. Whether or not all or any of that is true, we will never truly know. Just my opinion on it: I tend to separate the Davis contract from anything else taking place. It's special. It's an unique anomaly not just for the Orioles but for the game overall. It's complicated.

And yet, it's not, from a purely roster/financial standpoint, right? You just eat the sunk cost and move on. While that's not happened yet, I don't necessarily fault the Angelos brothers or Elias on it at this time. Elias and Co. are constructing the scaffolding of the rebuild around Chris Davis. Despite him. He doesn't really matter for the moment. He can be easily cordoned off while the new ownership group supports the front office in making strides in development, international scouting, analytics, and drafting.

There's a case to be made that Davis could fulfill his entire contract through 2022. After all, that's only 2 more years after this season. Even with the arrival of Ryan Mountcastle expected this year, the team could (and probably will) trade Trey Mancini. They could further free up a spot by moving on from Renato Nunez. There are no other slugger 1B/DH prospects knocking on the door other than Mountcastle. If the Orioles aren't as close to being a decent club by 2022 as we hope - and they very well may not be - there's a chance Davis is indeed never released prior to the end of his contract. 

But I don't think that happens. What follows is my prediction of how this whole thing eventually plays out:

1. Chris Davis has reportedly worked on his approach starting at the end of the season during his lengthy stint on the bench and then continued that work this offseason. Whether or not you believe in Davis' offseason work ethic (I'm iffy on it myself) is secondary here. Elias has confirmed at least that he will be in spring training, that he's "on the team", and that Elias "takes his contract seriously". To me, that means we're getting at minimum another two months of the regular season to see what, if any, improvements Davis has been made.
2. The next step in my prediction assumes that it's clear by June that Davis has not improved. What follows is a benching similar to what we saw in 2019. Davis makes the occasional start while ceding the majority of time to Mountcastle, who I expect to be up by this time, and others. Hopefully, he avoids the frustration that boiled over last year into a dugout confrontation with Hyde, and remains the good dugout presence for younger guys that he is, by all accounts. In fact, I predict he DOES avoid those frustrations due to the fact that he begins to really see the writing on the wall.
3. Davis weathers another year of articles, reporter questions, Hyde/Elias dodgy defenses, booing, and criticism and finishes the 2020 season on the active roster. But it's different this time. He's starting to concede that his time in the game and on the Orioles is up. He's a sharp guy and he knows the team has to move on if they're going to get better. They need the roster space, and they need productive hitters. He wants the Orioles to be good, and after a third straight year of batting under .200, he knows the right thing to do is step aside.
4. I don't believe Davis will force the Orioles hand on a release once he truly believes he just doesn't have it anymore. That said, nor do I think he outright retires out of the good of his heart for the ownership group - that wouldn't look great to the Union, and really, he's earned that right. 
5. So.. what, then? I predict Davis will meet with ownership, Elias, and Boras and they'll come to an arrangement as unique as the Chris Davis problem itself. He is released. The remainder of Davis' contract (2 years, $34 million) will get restructured or deferred in some way that is better for the Orioles' financial books. The previously deferred portion of his contract remains as is. A decent portion of his remaining salary will be used by him in conjunction with the Orioles to create a charitable fund of some sort that focuses on child health or similar efforts Davis is known to support. Or perhaps it gets funneled into the current Orioles Charitable Fund (https://www.mlb.com/orioles/community/charitable-fund).
6. Davis then transitions to a role within the Orioles "front office" roughly defined as a community ambassador and charity rep. He'll fall under the "Special Advisors and Community Ambassadors" section of the front office (https://www.mlb.com/orioles/team/front-office) where Brian Roberts, Boog Powell, Eddie Murray, and Brooks Robinson live. He'll make appearance at charities, assist current players with their charitable efforts, and remain an active and visible participant as it pertains to Orioles philanthropy. He's a fun guy (or was when he was productive) and I think he'll use some of that humor and approachability he was known for to good effect in this area. 
7. And that's it. The Orioles get him off the roster after 2020, but instead of being a sad tale, they reach an agreement that both can feel good about. Davis/Boras still get the majority of what they're owed, but in a way that makes things easier on the Orioles going forward (something I think Davis does care about), while also continuing Davis' outstanding charitable legacy. He remains a part of something with the Orioles, and both he and the Orioles get out of this with some great PR puff pieces. They turn a bad (and often downright sad) situation into something positive for everyone, and those less fortunate will benefit in a big way. It will be one of the game's most significant charitable efforts, something the Orioles already have a great track record with. And Davis gets to control his legacy in the game by ending it with something positive. He'll never shake the "historically bad contract" thing, but he can feel good about meeting that head-on with "historically large charitable effort". Be visible, get in front of cameras and talk openly about it, have a press conference with Elias and the owners, and then put all that energy and money into something bigger and better than baseball. I think he will. 

 

 

Davis should be remembered...but only as a cautionary tale of what not to do. Also, I think Buck and Brady should both have to get a matching American Gothic themed  tattoo of Davis and Angelos Sr for the role we all suspect they played in the signing. 

[wildbillhiccup]

3 minutes ago, 7Mo said:

Agree.

At the end of the season, he made a statement about Elias reaching out to put him with an instructor but he wasn't gonna do that. 

Is that a lack of effort? A lack of understanding? Bad advice? Not caring? Who knows, but I can't imagine he's done anything this offseason to change things. 

I'm amazed he's willing to sit on a bench, with horrific stats, and NOT be willing to change. But at least he's consistent.

The bench is a lot more comfortable when you're sitting on fat stacks of cash. Honestly though, I'm sure he realizes that this is it for him. He might as well collect every penny before he sails off into the sunset. And as much resentment as we throw at this guy, the blame should be placed solely on the shoulders of the men who advocated signing him. 

[Frobby]

I’m beyond guessing what will happen with Davis.    I do think that the pressure to release him ratchets up significantly when the O’s are ready to promote Mountcastle.  

[7Mo]

9 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

The bench is a lot more comfortable when you're sitting on fat stacks of cash. Honestly though, I'm sure he realizes that this is it for him. He might as well collect every penny before he sails off into the sunset. And as much resentment as we throw at this guy, the blame should be placed solely on the shoulders of the men who advocated signing him. 

He's failing, daily, in front of a ton of people. I don't think making a boatload of money eases the embarrassment in any way. But it seems pretty obvious that he looks at things differently than I do. 

[weams]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

All the kids can ask him about his PED suspension during a pennant race.  Fun for the whole family.

I'd rather they just paid him to go away.  He can come back in 2032 for the twentieth anniversary of the 2012 season.

Will he still be getting paid then?

[Aglets]

4 minutes ago, weams said:

Will he still be getting paid then?

Unfortunately yes.  He will be receiving payments through 2037.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, weams said:

Will he still be getting paid then?

Yes.