Is Mouncastle as good a hitter as Mancini was prior to his rookie year?

[SteveA]

Defensive spectrum

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In sabermetrics, the defensive spectrum is the graphical representation of the positions on a baseball field, arranged from left (the easiest defensive positions) to right (the hardest). Most people say that catcher is the hardest position to play because a catcher has many responsibilities. A catcher has to watch the runners, make sure no one is going to steal, squat for 2-5 hours a game, and has to make the right calls for what pitch the pitcher should throw.

Contents

• 1 The spectrum
• 2 History
• 3 Historical shift
• 4 External links

The spectrum

The defensive spectrum is:

Designated hitter – First baseman – Left fielder – Right fielder – Third baseman – Center fielder – Second baseman – Shortstop – Catcher – Pitcher

In some versions of the defensive spectrum, pitcher and catcher are not included, since certain defensive demands of those positions are so specialized as to be inapplicable to players at other positions. The designated hitter is sometimes omitted since he is technically not part of the "defense" at all.

As an example of the concept in action, players who are drafted by Major League Baseball teams as shortstops are far more likely to ultimately end up at a different position than players who are drafted as first basemen.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

I thought someone would come up with something a little more definitive than an opinion.   Don't the experts rank the positions in importance of order?   Not that your'e not an expert (haha) but your post didn't sound that way.

It does exist but I'm kinda busy and didn't feel like looking for it. 

[Number5]

Per BBREF:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/about/war_explained_position.shtml

Current values (per 1350 (150*9) innings played) are:

1. +9 runs 
2. SS: +7 runs
3. 2B: +3 runs
4. CF: +2.5 runs
5. 3B: +2 runs
6. RF: -7 runs
7. LF: -7 runs
8. 1B: -9.5 runs
9. DH: -15 runs

 

Edit:  The smiley face is C, but I have no idea why it changed to a smiley face and I can't edit it.  Weird.

[Scalious]

6 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

At the same age as Mountcastle last year (22), Mancini slashed .284/.326/.409/.735 between Low and High-A ball. So yes, I think Mountcastle has an excellent chance to hit as well or better than Mancini in the big leagues next year during his rookie season. 

I realize he has a few doubters on here because of his plate discipline, but I am not one of them.

5th Year in an MLB Org>>>2nd Year in an MLB Org + 3 years of college.

Colleges have fallen behind in terms of properly developing hitters in the launch angle age. I'd be wiling to wager the peak age for a college hitter vs prep hitter is going to be wider then it was 10 years ago.

Would be interested in an up to date study on this (I've seen studies done before, but that was mostly pre-launch angle)

 

[Tony-OH]

19 minutes ago, Scalious said:

5th Year in an MLB Org>>>2nd Year in an MLB Org + 3 years of college.

Colleges have fallen behind in terms of properly developing hitters in the launch angle age. I'd be wiling to wager the peak age for a college hitter vs prep hitter is going to be wider then it was 10 years ago.

Would be interested in an up to date study on this (I've seen studies done before, but that was mostly pre-launch angle)

 

Good points and something that top young hitters must think about when they are drafted. 

[REDMAN]

The answer to the actually question being asked is yes,  Mountcastle is a better hitter than Mancini at this stage of his process, you don't make top 100 lists in MLB with his defensive trouble if you can't hit and have that bad of a arm. He has elite bat speed that few prospects have, he will hit in the majors, be it at DH or 1b, but he will never be a great defensive player at any position in the majors because of his weak throwing arm. The orioles are very lucky to have him, can't wait till May to see him play.

[sportsfan8703]

The way I see it is it isn’t a big deal that Mountcastle is likely just a 1B/DH. We have prospects/younger players to cover the OF spots the next few years. Plus Mancini can play some OF while he is here. 

It won’t be too long till not only Mountcastle is up, but also DIaz. 

[weams]

https://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2020/01/the-curiosities-continue-over-mountcastle.html

Quote

 

Will the Orioles move Mountcastle between the infield and outfield corners at the Ed Smith Stadium complex? Is there one position that’s going to keep him the busiest?

The answers will come over the next couple of months.

The Orioles aren’t trying to set a record for most positions by a player under the age of 23. They just want to find a spot for Mountcastle in order to keep his bat in the lineup and, ideally, avoid making him a full-time designated hitter so early in his career.

 

 

[mdbdotcom]

6 minutes ago, weams said:

https://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2020/01/the-curiosities-continue-over-mountcastle.html

 

From the same blog post, here's Elias on Mountcastle last week in Salisbury.

Quote

“All of that is pretty normal with a young hitter, but there are still some questions to answer in terms of when is he going to be totally ready, a finished product, and where is he going to play on the field. If he’s only able to play first base or DH, it’s much tougher to pair him in the lineup with a Trey Mancini or a Renato Núñez or other guys who are going to be on our team next year. We want him to provide a little more flexibility than that.”

I emphasized the sentence where he mentions Mancini and  Nunez at 1B/DH and doesn't mention Davis. Best thing I've read all year.

[7Mo]

1 hour ago, Eric-OH said:

Elias has failed to elaborate on Davis simply being at Spring Training several times.  Almost like Belichick he’ll admit to Davis being there but not too much after that.  We both noticed the same lack of Chris in that statement.  I wonder if decisions have been made and contingencies are already in place.

I'd like to think Davis rejecting the suggestions to work with someone and work on swing changes over the offseason was the last straw, realizing he'll have a chance in ST to prove otherwise. 

Even with decision makers wanting to give him every opportunity given the size of the contract, refusing suggestions and refusing the plan for improvement might have done the trick. 

[Can_of_corn]

27 minutes ago, 7Mo said:

I'd like to think Davis rejecting the suggestions to work with someone and work on swing changes over the offseason was the last straw, realizing he'll have a chance in ST to prove otherwise. 

Even with decision makers wanting to give him every opportunity given the size of the contract, refusing suggestions and refusing the plan for improvement might have done the trick. 

I think last straws are irrelevant.  I think it is all down to if ownership will OK cutting Davis with the money owed and I don't think things like that are going to influence their decision.  The evidence has been overwhelming for some time that the Davis contract is a total loss.

[7Mo]

23 minutes ago, Eric-OH said:

I have a feeling you’re reading the tea leaves correctly.  Also, as much as I have no disdain for Davis I do think that he’ll be elsewhere somehow some way at the season’s outset and the fans clamoring for that roster weight to be gone can exhale.  It’s difficult to see him having any role in any way with this administration and changing roster.  If true, the refusal to fix the swing could be the nail in his O’s coffin.  I hope it both ends well and opens a door for someone else to excel.  Fingers crossed for another step forward for Trey Mancini!

I differ only in the sense that I think he gets 6 weeks of the regular season to fail. Then he's gone. And that will coincide with the Mountcastle call up.

[waroriole]

I think you guys are dreaming if you believe Davis is getting cut as early as 6 weeks into the season. There’s just nobody pushing down the door in AAA to warrant writing that money off yet. I think we see his playing time dwindle to once a week unless there are injuries, but with an extra bench spot this year they’ll continue to see what happens. 
 

I don’t see a Davis roster spot having any determination on a Mountcastle call up. 

[7Mo]

2 minutes ago, waroriole said:

I don’t see a Davis roster spot having any determination on a Mountcastle call up. 

I agree with this part. Didn't mean to suggest otherwise. 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, waroriole said:

I think you guys are dreaming if you believe Davis is getting cut as early as 6 weeks into the season. There’s just nobody pushing down the door in AAA to warrant writing that money off yet. I think we see his playing time dwindle to once a week unless there are injuries, but with an extra bench spot this year they’ll continue to see what happens. 
 

I don’t see a Davis roster spot having any determination on a Mountcastle call up. 

I don't think anyone pushing from AAA would have any impact on Davis.  I don't think Elias could want Davis gone more than he already does.