Reliever query: Castro vs Armstrong vs Sulser

[MurphDogg]

Castro (2.04) has had the highest leverage index in the bullpen per Baseball Reference (where 1.0 is average), followed closely by Sulser (1.94), then a huge gap between those two and the rest of the pen. Tanner Scott (!) (1.61), Lakins (1.08), Givens (1.06), Phillips (1.05), Armstrong (0.86), Fry (0.57) and Hess (0.01(!)).

[HowAboutThat]

22 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Who cares who the closer is.  It’s a relatively meaningless position although it does get in the minds of some.  By that I mean, I want my best relievers pitching in the highest leverage situations.  That is not always the 9th inning.  I would rather Givens not be in that role, as it seemed to get in his head last year.

He’s a tradable asset and I want him performing in the best role for him as possible.

I agree that “closer” means nothing and Hyde seems to be willing to use his best guys in the highest leverage spots, regardless of when that is.

I don’t think that Givens is more of an asset than the other successful bullpen pieces, considering how frangible they are. Maybe less, if he cant handle stressful spots. At trade time, teams are going to want the guys who are hot “right now” and it’s quite possible that our current big three will be in demand.
cant wait to see how CA & S look after 15 more innings.

[Roll Tide]

4 minutes ago, Philip said:

I agree that “closer” means nothing and Hyde seems to be willing to use his best guys in the highest leverage spots, regardless of when that is.

I don’t think that Givens is more of an asset than the other successful bullpen pieces, considering how frangible they are. Maybe less, if he cant handle stressful spots. At trade time, teams are going to want the guys who are hot “right now” and it’s quite possible that our current big three will be in demand.
cant wait to see how CA & S look after 15 more innings.

To me Castro is the least valuable due to his wild streaks. When he implodes it’s bad and the 3 hitter rule makes it difficult to get him out of the game when it’s obvious he doesn’t have it.

[Aristotelian]

Castro has really been solid except for a really bad first half last year. Great hair too. Sulser looks good so far. I like Givens as a matchup guy but not as "closer" to face lefty hitters. Armstrong is meh. 

[Roll Tide]

14 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Castro has really been solid except for a really bad first half last year. Great hair too. Sulser looks good so far. I like Givens as a matchup guy but not as "closer" to face lefty hitters. Armstrong is meh. 

I’m pretty sure that it was Castro that followed LeBlanc the start he gave up 4 runs. He left with 2 runs charged and Castro allowed 2 to score. He was definitely wild in that appearance 

[HowAboutThat]

23 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

To me Castro is the least valuable due to his wild streaks. When he implodes it’s bad and the 3 hitter rule makes it difficult to get him out of the game when it’s obvious he doesn’t have it.

I agree but Castro seems better this season. Scott seems better too, although I’m still terrified when he comes in( Sisco is better too, maybe he can be productive.)

[Moose Milligan]

We're going on small sample sizes here, especially in regards to Sulser seeing as Armstrong was here last year and we've had Castro for a bit.  I like what I've seen from him, I'm just not ready to anoint him as a key bullpen piece based on what he's done so far.

IMO, Castro has the best raw potential, Armstrong is the best overall pitcher with the jury still out on Sulser.  

[Roll Tide]

2 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

We're going on small sample sizes here, especially in regards to Sulser seeing as Armstrong was here last year and we've had Castro for a bit.  I like what I've seen from him, I'm just not ready to anoint him as a key bullpen piece based on what he's done so far.

IMO, Castro has the best raw potential, Armstrong is the best overall pitcher with the jury still out on Sulser.  

No doubt about it! But he’s wild at times

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, Roll Tide said:

No doubt about it! But he’s wild at times

Maybe he's getting it together this year.  It'd be nice if he was.  

[schittenden]

18 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I’m pretty sure that it was Castro that followed LeBlanc the start he gave up 4 runs. He left with 2 runs charged and Castro allowed 2 to score. He was definitely wild in that appearance 

The Boston start? LeBlanc left with men on second and third. Castro gave up a single allowing two to score to the next batter. He got a groundout to end the inning. The next inning, he faced one batter and got a long fly out. He may have been a little wild, but that doesn’t sound like a terrible outing. 

[HowAboutThat]

25 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Maybe he's getting it together this year.  It'd be nice if he was.  

What could he do if he’d gain a solid 40 pounds or so?

[Moose Milligan]

Just now, Philip said:

What could he do if he’d gain a solid 40 pounds or so?

Run slower.

I don't mind it when pitchers are lean and sinewy.  I've got nothing to back this up but I've always felt the leaner they are, the easier it would be for them to repeat their mechanics.  There's less of themselves to get in their way.  But then you've got fatasses like Bartolo Colon and Sabathia who pitched well for a long time, I dunno.  

[Sports Guy]

7 hours ago, Philip said:

I agree that “closer” means nothing and Hyde seems to be willing to use his best guys in the highest leverage spots, regardless of when that is.

I don’t think that Givens is more of an asset than the other successful bullpen pieces, considering how frangible they are. Maybe less, if he cant handle stressful spots. At trade time, teams are going to want the guys who are hot “right now” and it’s quite possible that our current big three will be in demand.
cant wait to see how CA & S look after 15 more innings.

Sulser and Armstrong will not be in demand, at least not a demand that nets us anything good.

[Aristotelian]

8 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

I’m pretty sure that it was Castro that followed LeBlanc the start he gave up 4 runs. He left with 2 runs charged and Castro allowed 2 to score. He was definitely wild in that appearance 

If I recall he nearly got a double play ball which would have ended the inning. Did allow a base hit to let in another run. Not the best outcome but I would put more of the blame on Armstrong there for sure.

I also seem to recall Sulser giving up a monster bomb to Judge. None of these guys are Chapman.

[Sports Guy]

Sulser is 30 years old and, as of right now, has less than 15 innings of ML experience.  He has had some impressive numbers in the high minors the last few years but that is also after several years in the minors and playing those leagues at very advanced ages.  This year, his K rate is mediocre, his BB rate is high, his HR rate is high and he has an unsustainable 118 BABIP.  Of course, none of this really matters because the sample size is small but for the most part, no one here had ever heard of Cole Sulser before he pitched with the Os.  Is it possible he has found some fountain of youth, discovered something about his game that has changed his fortunes and he is just a late bloomer?  Sure.  Do I think anyone here would be worried about Cole Sulser coming out of the pen if he pitched for another team?  No way.  He needs A LOT more of a sample size before you consider anything about him.

Castro could be on to something but I am not buying in yet.  He misses bats but he doesn't do it at a high rate.  Up until last year, he had terrible K rates.  Last year, he was able to get it to a respectable level.  His stuff is good and he is still young but he will never turn the corner of a mediocre reliever until he stops walking guys at a high level.  He is learning and could still get there.  The early returns this year are encouraging for sure but again, its a SSS that really means nothing.

I have liked Armstrong for a while.  He had good MiL numbers and was someone I had wanted the Os to target when he was still with Cleveland. He misses bats at a high rate.  He has done a reasonably good job at keeping the ball in the ballpark in his ML career, with last year seeing a few too many in a year where MLB obviously did something to the ball.  His K rates have been strong and his walk rates, while not where you want them to be, haven't been that bad, especially in relation to his K rate.  They certainly haven't been to the level of Castro.  Last year, he had a 5.74 ERA but his FIP was 4.54.  His BABIP was 347(!).  Unlike Castro, he doesn't have age on his side but he's younger than Sulser.  

I think its fair to say that with Castro's age and seemingly improving K rates, that he could be turning the corner but Armstrong is the better pitcher right now.  Castro will never reach his upside until he consistently gets his BB rate under 4.  If he can do that and the K rate continues to go up, he could become a really good reliever.