Realistic Competitive Date

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, jabba72 said:

Whenever Elias decides to get some quality starters in the infield. That will be the competitive date. Hopefully by 2022. The rest of the team will be set when Hall and Rodriguez are starting. 

I just don't see how a division title is a realistic outcome for 2022. 

[jabba72]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

I just don't see how a division title is a realistic outcome for 2022. 

Probably not but the thread title says competitive. Get some quality infielders and they will be competitive. 

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, jabba72 said:

Probably not but the thread title says competitive. Get some quality infielders and they will be competitive. 

The title says competitive but the actual first post says "at least the division".

I agree that, at this juncture, it's realistic the team could be in WC contention in 2022.  After all it might be a 60 game season with 16 teams making the playoffs. 

[BohKnowsBmore]

Similar to what other posters have said, I think 2022 is the “make some noise,” .500 or slightly better team. Then, 2023 is the start of the serious competitive window. 

[Frobby]

19 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I just don't see how a division title is a realistic outcome for 2022. 

Well, he says “contend for a division title.”    Did the O’s contend for a division title in 2012?   Yes.   2016?    More debatable, but we were a game out of the division lead with 17 games to play.    

Now, if you think Tampa or the Yankees are going to win 100 games in 2022, no I don’t think we are a contender to do that.    But after watching the O’s go from 69-93 to 93-69 in 2012, I was reminded that sometimes change comes faster than you’d expect.  
 

 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Well, he says “contend for a division title.”    Did the O’s contend for a division title in 2012?   Yes.   2016?    More debatable, but we were a game out of the division lead with 17 games to play.    

Now, if you think Tampa or the Yankees are going to win 100 games in 2022, no I don’t think we are a contender to do that.    But after watching the O’s go from 69-93 to 93-69 in 2012, I was reminded that sometimes change comes faster than you’d expect.  
 

 

I don't think 2012 counts as realistic.

Sometimes unrealistic things happen. 

[Yardball85]

23 hours ago, wildcard said:

OP says for the division.

 

That's fine.  My opinion and my post still stand.

[Frobby]

22 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think 2012 counts as realistic.

Sometimes unrealistic things happen. 

Well, we define unrealistic differently.    Fairly big, sudden improvements in teams happen pretty often.   It seems like most seasons these days some team has a 20+ game improvement.  In 2020 for example, the Padres went from 70 wins to playing at a 100-win pace.    In 2019 the Twins went from 78 wins to 101.   In 2018 the A’s went from 75 to 97.   Etc.

[Just Regular]

If Gerrit Cole’s 18-month health is dead last in the quartet of him and the three best Orioles pitchers...   He is the Proven Survivor though.

I do look for good Orioles players to be able to outplay the Chris Sale’s and Aaron Judge’s of the world in not too long a timeline.   Buck loved Jones as his best player hardest worker, and Vlad has work to do on franchise player mode.

If Wander runs circles around Adley or Glasnow finds the Randy Johnson things late, those are big problems but absent instant superstars the infinite treadmill of Luis Patinos I think can be beaten.  I am not worried Terp Brandon Lowe will hold us down forever.

[bpilktree]

TBD.  If you asked me this last year at this time I would have said 2022.  Now a year later we didn’t get to see much of the young guys except two month camp for some of them.  Now we are looking at this year still with when spring training camp start up when MLB starts and then when/ if the minors start.  The NBA is  having some serious issues right now with keeping enough guys available to play.  There is talk about a halt there or maybe some sort of bubble again. MLB will be worried about making sure major league rosters have enough guys available to not cancel games or series’s.  Do they decide to use the 40 man roster to start the season maybe until after Memorial Day meaning no AAA or guys having to play up because some guys are on that traveling list.  The Vaccine rollout does not seem to be going as fast as they would like for many different reasons.  I could easily see minor leagues not starting til after Memorial Day and them getting just half the normal number of games in.  We also don’t know much about how the minor league guys were able to do this last season.  Some guys may have had a huge advantage to getting in work that other guys didn’t.  We worry about guys being out 3 months coming back to camp in shape. Some of the minor league guys might be coming to camp with 12-15 months off.

[Moose Milligan]

On 1/9/2021 at 5:03 PM, Can_of_corn said:

Realistically I think it's a crap shoot as to if we get there at all.

The division is just too rough.  The Rays are beating us in on the field talent and in the minors, the Yankees and the Red Sox have close to unlimited spending ability and the Jays think their window is currently open.

Some stuff is going to have the break the O's way no matter how good a job Elias does.

This is where I am.  There's no telling if we'll ever be good at all.  

If this crop doesn't give us a bump towards being competitive, it won't happen until we start seeing our international talent come up and start making noise, IMO.  And that won't be until 2023 or 2024.

[Sports Guy]

That’s why I wanted to see them add a real piece or 2 now.

OrioleDog made a point that said whenever GROd/Hall/Kremer/Baumann/Akin make 5 straight starts.  Do you know how unlikely that is?  We are sitting here just waiting and assuming, that these prospects are going to be good MLers and that everything will be fine.  When does that happen?

The upside is certainly there for it to happen but you could probably say that about a lot of teams.

[Frobby]

30 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

OrioleDog made a point that said whenever GROd/Hall/Kremer/Baumann/Akin make 5 straight starts.  Do you know how unlikely that is?  We are sitting here just waiting and assuming, that these prospects are going to be good MLers and that everything will be fine.  When does that happen?

The upside is certainly there for it to happen but you could probably say that about a lot of teams.

Very clear-eyed.   The hit rate on highly rated prospects isn’t that high.   

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Very clear-eyed.   The hit rate on highly rated prospects isn’t that high.   

I hoping the that the analytics and the pitching coaches that know how to teach it make the hit  rate higher.

[Just Regular]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

That’s why I wanted to see them add a real piece or 2 now.

OrioleDog made a point that said whenever GROd/Hall/Kremer/Baumann/Akin make 5 straight starts.  Do you know how unlikely that is?  We are sitting here just waiting and assuming, that these prospects are going to be good MLers and that everything will be fine.  When does that happen?

The upside is certainly there for it to happen but you could probably say that about a lot of teams.

I think I said Means not Akin there.   To be clear, I'm referring to playing time/earning jobs, not any expectation they will necessarily be very good MLB pitchers, either immediately or ever.   I expect even eventual good MLB players to be bad ones at first, Rodriguez included.   (Probably.)    I do expect them to offer a more realistic shot at competitiveness than whatever '21 Milone/Wojo/Leblanc equivalent takes that job here chasing another couple months of MLB reps before even the 30th out of 30 teams trying to figure out 1450 innings doesn't want them anymore.

The zest for 2021 reps for the good players is simply the hope 2022 will be competed in.  This decade's teams are going to unroll as they unroll, if Zips thinks the 2023 Orioles are 90-game losers we're perhaps talking about the GM's job.

Pitching being what it is - I would bet someone from Lowther/Bradish/Smith/The Field outpitches one of the Main Guys, and of course some of them will become "nothing".

The 2009 Orioles gave approximately zero starts to anyone any good; the 2010 Orioles gave 90 starts to interesting cats.

There's also an onion layer the regime will be good enough to develop/curate/luck into one immediate success.  I've been here - I get we're conditioned as a fanbase that it feels impossible.   Tillman took four years to get established, and so could any of these guys.