Is Grayson Rodriguez our no. 1 prospect now?

[MurphDogg]

 

2 hours ago, Gentile4 said:

A quick look at his game log seems to indicate Adley's hitting .176 while catching this year. 35 for 199. Apologies if my math is off. Yes, I know. He walks a lot.

 

2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Damn, I'll have to take a look at that for sure. Thanks for the heads up. I already knew his left-handed hitting has not been what was expected, but it would really not be good if he struggles to hit while catching in the heat. Something to keep an eye on.

Gentile's math is off. He is using plate appearances as the denominator instead of at-bats. Adley is 35 for 148 which is a .236 batting average. Not great, but not as dire as Gentile's number.

Adley is 26/79 (.329) as 1B/DH.

[Gentile4]

1 minute ago, MurphDogg said:

 

 

Your math is off. You are using plate appearances as the denominator instead of at-bats. He is 35 for 148 which is a .236 batting average. Not great, but not as dire as your number.

He is 26/79 (.329) as 1B/DH.

I'm definitely glad to be wrong on this one. Good catch.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

21 hours ago, fansince1988 said:

Both should be in the majors now. It's sad that the current system is keeping them in Bowie. 

If gaming service time wasn't a consideration, then I don't think there is anyway Adley Rutschman isn't the Orioles primary catcher right now. Not as sure on Grayson Rodriguez since he is a year younger, but he's definitely on a track to be ready by the start of 2022. 

[MurphDogg]

1 minute ago, Gentile4 said:

I'm definitely glad to be wrong on this one. Good catch.

Still good info from you, if you hadn't posted I wouldn't have realized that he is hitting worse behind the plate than when playing first or DH. 

Curious to see whether that trend continues.

[Pickles]

9 hours ago, OrioleDog said:

I forgot about Shane Baz skyrocketing - ideally a Grayson-Baz August duel could be the hottest minors thing since Grayson-SWR.   Its like Grayson is working up Punch Out....with the Gerrit Cole head to head sometime next spring.

On its recent Midseason 50, BP went Grayson 12, Baz 13 as top two pitchers, then hedged with this blather:

A few years ago, we had a modest proposal in a rankings email chain from a staffer who now works for a team to do our national rankings as we like, and then just drop every pitcher 10-20 spots before publishing because of the risk and attrition rate. So yes, Rodriguez is the highest-rated arm on this list, but he still carries the “he’s a pitcher” risks. Anyway, if there’s a specific concern here, maybe none of the offspeeds ever becomes a true out pitch and he’s never a true front-of-the-rotation arm.

I'm glad somebody brought this up- if only obliquely.

I'm seeing a lot of hope in here that one would have thought the years of Orioles' fandom would have ripped out of a man's soul.

Pitching prospects are much, much riskier than positional ones.  As such, there's really no way to justify ranking Rodriguez over Rutschman. 

(That is not to say, of course, that ALL positional prospects should be ranked over ALL pitching prospects.)

 

[Sports Guy]

I’m putting Witt over Adley…just as I would have for the draft.  The offensive profile and ability to play a position that you can last longer at matters to me, again as it did at draft time.  Not to mention the age difference.

GRod is riskier for me, as the BP write up said.  Like i mentioned, I would have to see Grayson go a lot more pitches/innings against upper level competition to put him over Rutschman.

 

[Just Regular]

11 hours ago, Pickles said:

I'm seeing a lot of hope in here that one would have thought the years of Orioles' fandom would have ripped out of a man's soul.

TINSTAAPP for all 30 teams, really.   I believe for the sake of getting enjoyment from Orioles baseball, gathering ye rosebuds, etc, enjoy your high school pitchers before their arms explode.

We'll be a few seasons discovering if Hall and Rodriguez can ramp back up smoothly from covid, just like Rays/Baz, Padres/Gore, etc, etc.

Every once in a while one of the homo sapiens with that talent, the mechanism keeps together >10 years and then maybe you have a prayer for the Verlander Kershaw Cole type guy.   Hall is now 4 years, and Rodriguez 3 years, past their draft year with their arms intact (tick tock on a little "elbow inflammation"...), but with the asterisk of they weren't working their craft a good chunk of that time.

If we make it to the end of September and the org hasn't let Rodriguez at 21 test his talent 90-100 pitches deep at least a few times, I probably won't be as salty as he'll be, but am sure I'll be getting more restless.    His MLB deployment in Adley's supporting cast isn't going to be 64 pitches and a shower, and MLB bats won't let him gather 15 outs so easily.

[emmett16]

On 7/18/2021 at 9:59 PM, Sports Guy said:

As a matter of fact, I think it’s the opposite effect with Frobby.  He acts like Adley has to have a 1000 OPs to be promoted and when he did have a 1000 OPS before, it was a SSs, so let’s give him more time.  
 

The expectation is really absurd imo.

How many times have you gone to see Adley play in the last two years?  He has some work to do on his swing.  He has struggled for the majority of his professional career.  Save the heater he was on a month ago, he has not been impressive as a pro.  His swing gets long, pulls off ball and doesn't barrel up hittable low 90s fastballs.  All that said, he will probably be a fantastic player for a long time, but he ain't ready.  He would get abused by MLB pitchers were he to get a call up right now.  

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

How many times have you gone to see Adley play in the last two years?  He has some work to do on his swing.  He has struggled for the majority of his professional career.  Save the heater he was on a month ago, he has not been impressive as a pro.  His swing gets long, pulls off ball and doesn't barrel up hittable low 90s fastballs.  All that said, he will probably be a fantastic player for a long time, but he ain't ready.  He would get abused by MLB pitchers were he to get a call up right now.  

I haven’t seen him And don’t need to.

Look, I was hammered for pointing out that he wasn’t that good on 2019. People blamed the mono, which was bs to me because he started off fine and then struggled later on.  I would buy the mono excuse if it happened earlier.

I have also been vocal that I question if he was the best player to pick in that draft.   I am not blind to issues with him.
 

All of that being said, he is advanced player with elite skills.  He doesn’t have to be a finished product to come to the majors.  That’s the fallacy behind these discussions.  People act as if the player can’t adjust and improve at the ML level.

[emmett16]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I haven’t seen him And don’t need to.

Look, I was hammered for pointing out that he wasn’t that good on 2019. People blamed the mono, which was bs to me because he started off fine and then struggled later on.  I would buy the mono excuse if it happened earlier.

I have also been vocal that I question if he was the best player to pick in that draft.   I am not blind to issues with him.
 

All of that being said, he is advanced player with elite skills.  He doesn’t have to be a finished product to come to the majors.  That’s the fallacy behind these discussions.  People act as if the player can’t adjust and improve at the ML level.

I disagree with your last paragraph.

Baseball is a brutal game to play.  The day you don't believe in yourself, you are done.  There is a lot that goes in to giving players promotions.  If a player is not ready (physically, emotionally, or mentally) your risk ending their career.  That simple.  

I'd recommend you go watch him play.  

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, emmett16 said:

I disagree with your last paragraph.

Baseball is a brutal game to play.  The day you don't believe in yourself, you are done.  There is a lot that goes in to giving players promotions.  If a player is not ready (physically, emotionally, or mentally) your risk ending their career.  That simple.  

I'd recommend you go watch him play.  

If he loses confidence that quickly, then he is likely mentally weak and won’t make it anyway.

I don’t need to see him play to know he has weaknesses.  He is in a stretch of about 100 PA where he has struggled.  It’s obvious he has some holes.

I would still bet on him being the best catcher on the team and end the year as likely one of the top 10 catchers in the league.

[interloper]

On 7/20/2021 at 8:08 AM, Sports Guy said:

I’m putting Witt over Adley…just as I would have for the draft.  The offensive profile and ability to play a position that you can last longer at matters to me, again as it did at draft time.  Not to mention the age difference.

GRod is riskier for me, as the BP write up said.  Like i mentioned, I would have to see Grayson go a lot more pitches/innings against upper level competition to put him over Rutschman.

 

I was all Adley all the way, but I honestly can't fault this take now. The only thing I'll say is it might be a little easier to find an impact SS than an impact C. 

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, interloper said:

I was all Adley all the way, but I honestly can't fault this take now. The only thing I'll say is it might be a little easier to find an impact SS than an impact C. 

I have always felt it was likely that someone would outdo Adley.   But I also don’t worry about that.   I just want Adley to be very, very good.   

I’m impressed by what Witt is doing but not losing sleep over that.  
 

[OriolesMagic83]

I believe that Adley was chosen more for his value as a catcher than his bat.  They probably thought of him as more Yadier Molina than Johnny Bench.  I checked Bench's stats and even he had a lowly career .817 OPS.  I don't hear Cardinals fans complain about having Molina as their catcher  Well I hope Adley has as long a career as Molina and makes as many All Star games. 

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I believe that Adley was chosen more for his value as a catcher than his bat.  They probably thought of him as more Yadier Molina than Johnny Bench.  I checked Bench's stats and even he had a lowly career .817 OPS.  I don't hear Cardinals fans complain about having Molina as their catcher  Well I hope Adley has as long a career as Molina and makes as many All Star games. 

Bench’s .817 OPS was good for a 126 OPS+ in the era in which he played   That’s about an .844 OPS today.   And he was a great defensive catcher too, winner of 10 straight Gold Gloves.

Sure, I would take Molina’s career in a heartbeat.