Updated Fangraphs prospect list

[Frobby]

Fangraphs has been updating its prospect lists to account for arrivals, graduations and other changes.  Since the season began:

- Rutschman moves up from 65 to 70

- Rodriguez moves up from 55 to 60, and is now rated no. 16 nationally.

- Hall moves from 50 to 55, ranked 22nd 

- Cowser debuts as a 50, fourth on the O’s list and 88th nationally.

- Gunnar moves from 45 to 50, 98th nationally.  

- Kjerstad stays on the list as a 50, 113th nationally.   His ETA is moved back to 2024.

- We have six players rated at 45.   In order: McKenna, Westburg, Vavra, Bradish, Baumann, Stowers.   

https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2021-in-season-prospect-list/summary?sort=-1,1&team=bal

 I don’t think they’ve done a comprehensive reevaluation of everyone listed, just updated certain players they’ve had eyes on.  

As to other new players, they rate Norby 14th (40+), Trimble 18th (40+), Williams 23rd (40), and Rhodes 34th (35+).

Also, the O’s system moves all the way to no. 2 in overall value.   Big move there!

https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2021-in-season-prospect-list/farm-ranking?sort=-1,1&type=100&filter=&pos=&team=

[MurphDogg]

Good info. Seems like an oversight not to have bumped Kjerstad's risk to high.

[eddie83]

Thanks for posting this. It would be nice if a couple rated at 45 pan out. May be critical to success. 

 

 

 

 

 

[Just Regular]

I was surprised Rhodes was listed at 3B by FG's Board.   His B-Ref college page shows just a few games there and big majority outfield, but here's what they still have in their write-up on him.

Full Report

Rhodes became eligible when the draft date moved due to COVID, and he was still not 21 on draft day. He entered the year as a young-for-the-class infielder coming off a strong, shortened, 2020 season. He swing is grooved and Rhodes swung and missed in the zone a lot in 2021, but still reached base at a .400 clip and slugged a shade over .500 thanks to bat speed rather than lift in the swing. This is still an athletic, young player with experience at several different positions. Rhodes caught in high school but moved off the position due to a broken back. More recently he's played both infield corners and all three outfield positions. He could be a power-centric multi-positional player but there's risk the hit tool bottoms out the profile here.

[LookinUp]

How do they have AR as a 70? Seems way high. I'd have him as a 60 personally.

[survivedc]

2 hours ago, LookinUp said:

How do they have AR as a 70? Seems way high. I'd have him as a 60 personally.

Do those FV numbers take position into account? If he put up the exact same numbers (obviously a big ask) he’d be the #1 or 2 catcher in the league, plus putting up good defensive value.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, survivedc said:

Do those FV numbers take position into account? If he put up the exact same numbers (obviously a big ask) he’d be the #1 or 2 catcher in the league, plus putting up good defensive value.

Of course they do.  It’s an overall evaluation, not just an evaluation of the bat.  
 

 

 

 

 

 

[survivedc]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Of course they do.  It’s an overall evaluation, not just an evaluation of the bat.  
 

 

 

 

 

 

I meant offense adjusted for position, not defensive ability. 

[Frobby]

13 minutes ago, survivedc said:

I meant offense adjusted for position, not defensive ability. 

It includes both.   

[CharmCityHokie]

6 hours ago, LookinUp said:

How do they have AR as a 70? Seems way high. I'd have him as a 60 personally.

They are quite smitten with Adley: 

"Adley Rutschman’s rank didn’t change but he moved from the 65 FV tier to the 70 FV tier on the strength of his Futures Game look. He is not normal. A switch-hitter his size, with his kind of rotational explosion, who has the bat-to-ball feel to switch which side of the cage he’s hitting in mid-batting practice session and just keep hitting bombs is not normal, and this is also an elite defensive catcher and locker room guy. He’s now in the FV tier Shohei Ohtani, Fernando Tatis Jr., Ronald Acuña Jr., and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. were in as prospects."

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/daily-prospect-notes-draft-prospects-added-to-team-lists/

[Brooks The Great]

McKenna rated too high, Westburg rated too low. I guess McKenna gets a higher rating due to him actually having played major league games.

[Frobby]

11 minutes ago, Brooks The Great said:

McKenna rated too high, Westburg rated too low. I guess McKenna gets a higher rating due to him actually having played major league games.

Fangraphs has always liked McKenna more than most other sources.  

[wildcard]

When Wander Franco graduates the O's should have the #1 Farm Ranking  over Tampa $373 to $360.

If Fangraphs uses the same criteria that Cots uses ( 130 at bats or 45 days in the majors) then Franco should graduate about August 6th.

[Frobby]

53 minutes ago, wildcard said:

When Wander Franco graduates the O's should have the #1 Farm Ranking  over Tampa $373 to $360.

If Fangraphs uses the same criteria that Cots uses ( 130 at bats or 45 days in the majors) then Franco should graduate about August 6th.

I believe they do, but they don’t necessarily update their lists every day either.   They do it periodically.   

Being no. 1 on the list for a brief while would be nice, but that’s not really the goal.  The goal is to have a system that is regularly producing good players.   In theory, we could lose Rutschman, Rodriguez and Hall off our list in 2022 and then our ranking probably slips to below average.   But that’s fine.  I’m more concerned that those guys actually live up to their rankings when they reach the majors, which many prospects don’t (especially at first, and sometimes ever).
 

[wildcard]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I believe they do, but they don’t necessarily update their lists every day either.   They do it periodically.   

Being no. 1 on the list for a brief while would be nice, but that’s not really the goal.  The goal is to have a system that is regularly producing good players.   In theory, we could lose Rutschman, Rodriguez and Hall off our list in 2022 and then our ranking probably slips to below average.   But that’s fine.  I’m more concerned that those guys actually live up to their rankings when they reach the majors, which many prospects don’t (especially at first, and sometimes ever).
 

#1 might not be the goal but its worth noting which is what I am pointing out.