Your 2022 FA Wish List

[jamalshw]

14 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

Word is Rockies want to keep him.  

There's something to be said about staying with the team you broke in with and perhaps there's a pull there...that said, if i'm going head-to-head with any team to lure a pitcher to Baltimore, Colorado is probably the only one I feel good about going up against. 

I wouldn't mind Gray. I would give Bundy, Gausman or Davies a second tour in Baltimore (though with Gausman's year that's not happening). There are some interesting pitching options and I really hope the Orioles go for one or two with some upside as opposed to the Matt Harvey-type retreads. 

Overall, I don't expect too much activity. I would love a Correa surprise given Elias's background, but that's dreaming. Still middle infield would be the none-pitching place to make a move. I would love to see something bold as a set up for a step forward in 2022 with eyes on being a fringe competitor in 2023, but--again--that appears quite ambitious given where the team is at the moment. 

 

[Roll Tide]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

3 years for Pineda?  Why?

He will be 33 before next year starts.  His K rate is on the decline and he has had crushed by injuries for most of his career.  Why would you give him 3 years?  

I can see 1 year for him and attach an easily obtainable vesting option, say 170 IP or something like that.  But guaranteeing him 3 years?  That's got disaster written all over it.

Someone will give him that. So give him 2 years with an option 

he will give you 150 innings at 3.80-4.25 ERA

 

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Roll Tide said:

Someone will give him that. So give him 2 years with an option 

he will give you 150 innings at 3.80-4.25 ERA

 

Maybe.  He has to stay healthy first and he has to adapt to being in a More hitter friendly park and division.  
 

Not to mention, the drop in K rate needs to stabilize or go back up.

 

[interloper]

Honestly Bundy might be one of the better fits unless Elias and crew just aren't a fan or there are injury concerns.

[Ruzious]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

At least under the current CBA there are paths to contention that don't involve signing large dollar free agents.

Given the payroll the O's have and have had for the last few seasons - other than Chris Davis - who should be covered by insurance - if they can't afford one reasonably high-priced free agent, they shouldn't be in the business.  

[SteveA]

1 hour ago, eddie83 said:

Word is Rockies want to keep him.  

Gray seems to have magically "figured out" pitching at Coors Field.  In 4 of the last 6 seasons, he has been significantly better at home than on the road despite his home park being Coors Field and playing a lot of road games in the 3 NL West California pitchers' parks.   In 2018 he was pretty even, and only in 2020 (a season where he only threw 38 innings) did he exhibit what you would expect of a pitcher, worse stats in Coors than on the road).

2021 HOME:  3.27 ERA, 1.089 WHIP, .604 OPS against
2021 AWAY:  4.21 ERA, 1.426 WHIP, .780 OPS against

2020 HOME: 8.39 ERA, 1.419 WHIP, .866 OPS against
2020 AWAY:  3.77 ERA, 1.465 WHIP, .708 OPS against

2019 HOME:  3.48 ERA 1.288 WHIP, .754 OPS against
2019 AWAY:  4.22 ERA, 1.420 WHIP, .788 OPS against

2018  HOME:  4.31 ERA, 1.375 WHIP,  .778 OPS against
2018 AWAY:  5.34 ERA, 1.316 WHIP, .768 OPS against

2017 HOME:  3.17 ERA, 1.217 WHIP, .649 OPS against
2017 AWAY:  4.06 ERA, 1.352 WHIP, .763 OPS against

2016 HOME:  4.30 ERA, 1.124 WHIP, .674 OPS against
2016 AWAY:  4.91 ERA, 1.399 WHIP, .731 OPS against

I don't know how he does it but it has held up over a pretty large sample size.   I have to believe that the Rockies would pay pretty big for a guy who has demonstrated the ability to master Coors the way Gray has, especially if he has expressed a desire to stay..   Unless they are in a tear-it-all-down-and-don't-try-to-be-competitive situation like the 2018 Orioles.

 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Ruzious said:

Given the payroll the O's have and have had for the last few seasons - other than Chris Davis - who should be covered by insurance - if they can't afford one reasonably high-priced free agent, they shouldn't be in the business.  

It is far from a given if all, or any, of the Davis contract is insured.

As for "afford" what does that mean in this context?  Could they add the payroll and stay profitable?  I'm sure they can but do they have an incentive to do so?  Why should ownership sign off on a "reasonably high-priced free agent"? 

[SteveA]

26 minutes ago, interloper said:

Honestly Bundy might be one of the better fits unless Elias and crew just aren't a fan or there are injury concerns.

There are 2.1 HR/9 inning concerns.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, SteveA said:

There are 2.1 HR/9 inning concerns.

Is that a stat that is stable year to year?

[Just Regular]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Why does Correa make sense?  I mean, I get the Elias connection but there has to be more to it  than that.

Because he is a young free agent, his WAR/650 is about the same as Tatis, the injury hiccups mean 7 x 23 instead of 10 x 30 might near a winning bid, Mike knows him, part-time minor league shortstops like Westburg and Henderson rarely cut it in the Show, and to relieve Adley of ceremonial duties while he figures out how to outsmart the talented IFA hitters he won't have as teammates enough to get us to a wildcard game in 2023?

I believe we are probably not spending $25M new on the 2022 MLB team this offseason, but if we were I think this would be a better use of it than Mike Minor, Greg Holland, Carlos Santana and Michael A. Taylor.

It would be an Astroball break - I believe Brantley is the most expensive FA those teams have purchased in their run.

[Ruzious]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

It is far from a given if all, or any, of the Davis contract is insured.

As for "afford" what does that mean in this context?  Could they add the payroll and stay profitable?  I'm sure they can but do they have an incentive to do so?  Why should ownership sign off on a "reasonably high-priced free agent"? 

To improve the quality of their product - which should lead to increased revenues.  

[fitzi22]

3 minutes ago, Ruzious said:

Given the payroll the O's have and have had for the last few seasons - other than Chris Davis - who should be covered by insurance - if they can't afford one reasonably high-priced free agent, they shouldn't be in the business.  

Yes they should be, and I think most of us acknowledge the advantages to doing so but Elias has not shown he is willing to do that one bit.  There is a level of risk associated with bringing in a reasonably high priced free agent and this franchise is completely risk overt at this time. If they do end up playing around as real players in free agency it will be after the young guys show they can compete.  Until then we will continue to take on AAAA guys or 40 man roster casualties or the extreme reclamation project (Matt Harvey) or maybe if we are lucky plurge on a position of need at an crazy discount price (SS). Here’s to hoping the young guys show the baseball world they can compete so we can eventually participate in MLB like we are supposed to.

[SteveA]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Is that a stat that is stable year to year?

No, but he has always been on the high end in terms of HRs allowed.   It's always been probably his biggest Achilles heel.

When a guy has his worst season in an area that has been a known weakness, and that is something that would be espeically bad at Oriole Park, I think that is at least a warning flag.   Add to the fact that he has his highest ERA, highest FIP, highest WHIP, and highest H/9 of his career this year.

Yeah, I guess you could interpret all of the above to say it is an opportunity to buy low on him this offseason.     As I told Sports Guy, I envision one free agent signing simlar to the Odorizzi/Pineda signings Minnesota and Houston have made the past couple years, a 2/$20 type deal for a fairly reliable if unspectacular pitcher.   And then maybe one Harvey type signing.   Bundy could be the Harvey, I suppose.

[interloper]

10 minutes ago, SteveA said:

There are 2.1 HR/9 inning concerns.

Sure, but that's why he might be available for cheap and maybe you work on something with him, hope he rebounds, etc. Anyone the Orioles sign is going to have some deficiency going on. 

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, Ruzious said:

To improve the quality of their product - which should lead to increased revenues.  

Honest question.  Do you think, from stickily a profitably standpoint, that is a gamble that is likely to pay off?  Wouldn't it make more sense to wait?