I’m about ready to give up on DJ Stewart

[NCRaven]

14 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Please explain.  He was drafted in 2018 out of college.   He is protected for 4 years before he has to be protected from the Rule 5 draft.   That is 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021.  Did they extend things because of COVID?

My mistake.  I didn’t know that he needed to be protected this year.

[Frobby]

24 minutes ago, Pickles said:

He couldn't hit .300 in Japan.  If he could, he'd be useful here.

The following players are hitting .300 in Japan this year:

- Former Orioles farmhand Zealous Wheeler (major leagues: .193)

- Jose Osuna (.241)

- Tyler Austin (.220)

I’m not saying that no Japanese League hitters could be useful major leaguers, just that here are 3 players who weren’t very useful here who are hitting .300 there.   

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

The following players are hitting .300 in Japan this year:

- Former Orioles farmhand Zealous Wheeler (major leagues: .193)

- Jose Osuna (.241)

- Tyler Austin (.220)

I’m not saying that no Japanese League hitters could be useful major leaguers, just that here are 3 players who weren’t very useful here who are hitting .300 there.   

Did they have career .260 MiL batting averages?

Do flukey things happen?  Particularly in shortened seasons? 

Of course.

But DJ Stewart does not have the ability to hit a sustained .300 in the Japan, and if he did, he'd be useful over here.

[Tony-OH]

5 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

He now has about a full season's worth of plate appearances in the majors, and is slashing .212/.326/.388.  And is a -12 fielder, and is 27.  Of course that's not written in stone as his career numbers, but probably his most likely path.

There's a pretty small difference between productive regular and replacement level commodity.  He looks like he just didn't quite get there.

If DJ has McKenna like speed and defense I'd be more apt to give him more shots offensively, but since he brings negative value defensively, the bat really has to be special. Besides that amazing nine-game stretch last year when he hit like post steroided Barry Bonds, he's been pretty underwhelming.

If he's not DFA'd before the Orioles set their 40-man roster this offseason I'll be shocked.

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

I’d say he’s been significantly worse than I hoped he’d be this year, and it’s not just me.   Stewart came into this season with a .224/.334/.433 line over three partial seasons, and a minor league line of .255/.358/.432.   Given where he is on the age/experience curve, I think it was pretty reasonable to think he’d be in the .750-.790 range.   If you look at the pre-season projections for him from ZiPS, PECOTA, etc., they run from a low of .719 to a high of .764.   So, his current .649 is well below expectations.   He can kind of play a role for a team as a .750ish guy, but he really provides no value as a .650ish guy.   I’d also add that, based on some reports I’d read when he was in the minors, I’d hoped that some of past his defensive foibles were just SSS events that made him look worse than he really was, but he’s looked bad in a bigger sample this year.   

Chubby fringe defensive players don't tend to get better as they age. I'd say this is the worse I've seen him in the outfield. He was never great, but was effective at times in the minors, but he is well below average now. 

I looked at the Savant numbers to back up my eyes and they agree:

Stewart's reaction time -1.1 ft/sec avg and -1 ft/sec burst are his career worse. His feet covered for each play this year has been -2.2 feet per sec slower than major league average. He has a -3 catch  percentage added. 

His 4.49 speed to first base puts him as a 30 runner. He was a 4.32 runner to first in 2019 (50).

So he's getting slower, has less burst and reaction, and is now 27 years old. 

 

[webbrick2010]

Really don't know how to dig up ancient posts but I posted on the draft thread immediately after he was drafted that the O's just wasted a first round pick on a slow fat outfielder with limited power. I have been consistent with my criticism and I was correct. His only asset was OBP and that is not a particularly projectible talent, otherwise he didn't have any ML tools, and still doesn't.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, webbrick2010 said:

Really don't know how to dig up ancient posts but I posted on the draft thread immediately after he was drafted that the O's just wasted a first round pick on a slow fat outfielder with limited power. I have been consistent with my criticism and I was correct. His only asset was OBP and that is not a particularly projectible talent, otherwise he didn't have any ML tools, and still doesn't.

You were wrong then and are still wrong.

He's was an average pick.

A wasted pick never makes the majors.

[Pickles]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

You were wrong then and are still wrong.

He's was an average pick.

A wasted pick never makes the majors.

Does he make the majors in an organization that isn't historically pathetic?

I'm kind of with Webbrick here.  He doesn't have a single avg major league tool, with the exception of plate discipline and power.

He runs, throws, and hits well below acceptable standards for a ML player.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Pickles said:

Does he make the majors in an organization that isn't historically pathetic?

I'm kind of with Webbrick here.  He doesn't have a single avg major league tool, with the exception of plate discipline and power.

He runs, throws, and hits well below acceptable standards for a ML player.

Sure.

Even with how horrid he's been this season he's still replacement level for his career.  Lots of guys get chances. 

[Pickles]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Sure.

Even with how horrid he's been this season he's still replacement level for his career.  Lots of guys get chances. 

I personally don't believe that he'd have gotten 550 ML abs if he hadn't happened to be a ML ready prospect who was in an organization that is in a historically pathetic epoch.

He probably at some point would have made the majors though.

I understand the odds of the Amateur draft.  We don't need Frobby to recite them for us.

But drafting slow, fat corner outfielders in the first round is probably not going to lead us to the promised land.

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I personally don't believe that he'd have gotten 550 ML abs if he hadn't happened to be a ML ready prospect who was in an organization that is in a historically pathetic epoch.

He probably at some point would have made the majors though.

I understand the odds of the Amateur draft.  We don't need Frobby to recite them for us.

But drafting slow, fat corner outfielders in the first round is probably not going to lead us to the promised land.

Elias just gave a million to a High School Catcher that looks to be on the plump side.

Was that a bad idea?

[Gurgi]

9 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Elias just gave a million to a High School Catcher that looks to be on the plump side.

Was that a bad idea?

Jeremy Brown all over again?

[Tony-OH]

31 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

Really don't know how to dig up ancient posts but I posted on the draft thread immediately after he was drafted that the O's just wasted a first round pick on a slow fat outfielder with limited power. I have been consistent with my criticism and I was correct. His only asset was OBP and that is not a particularly projectible talent, otherwise he didn't have any ML tools, and still doesn't.

Giving yourself credit for hating on someone when you hate on every player and decision is kind of like a weatherman taking credit for a partly cloudy day with a chance of showers.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Gurgi said:

Jeremy Brown all over again?

Interesting choice of comp.

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I understand the odds of the Amateur draft.  We don't need Frobby to recite them for us.

I’m actually working on a project right now to define what constitutes a good draft, great draft, poor draft, awful draft etc.   Not focused on individual performance but total yield from a draft. I’m about 60% done and will post something in the next week or two when I finish.   

As to Stewart, there is no doubt that webbrick2010 hated that pick pretty much from day one and said so dozens of times while Stewart was in the minors and whenever he was struggling in the majors.   I always thought he was too critical of a guy who was still developing and too quick to judge.   And, it’s true that Stewart has outperformed 40% of all no. 25 picks who never reached the majors, so calling the pick horrible seems over the top to me still.   But, I can’t deny that Stewart hasn’t developed into a good major league player and at this point it seems likely that he never will.   I’ll take some solace from the fact that we also took Mullins and Mountcastje in that draft, as well as 4 other players who reached the majors (McKenna, Cleavinger, Meissinger and Flaa).   We may still look back on that draft someday and say it was pretty good.  We’ve certainly had many that were worse.