Biggest snub of Tony’s top 30?

[sportsfan8703]

Zach Watson. 20/20 CF thst was a high draft choice. 

[jerios55]

I find the differences for this final power ranking interesting. 

Several guys listed in this thread A Wells (23), Brnovich (26), Mundy (27), Hernaiz (29) sub 30, while a few like Servideo (41) and Rangel (42) got decent jumps. 

I know little beyond these lists, but I can see why a few are surprised but some of these differences.

edit: talking about this list. Links can be helpful...

 

 

[Sports Guy]

I would like to know from Tony who he feels he wishes he had a spot for and if Rangel (#30) would be the first guy he would remove.

[Tony-OH]

15 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Off the top of my head, I would probably go Moises Ramirez.

Ramirez has lot of power from what I heard, but the bad K-BB ratio at such a low level is a yellow flag for me and his defense wasn't good. He's worth keeping an eye on though, just not Top 30 ready.

[Tony-OH]

15 hours ago, glenn__davis said:

Great topic.  Hudson Haskin was going to be mine but I see that he just snuck in there.

I'd say Zach Peek would be my top snub, followed by JD Mundy.  Both showed pretty good numbers as they begin to approach the upper minors.  I'm sure Tony has reasons for omitting them, but I would have thought that they would have found their way on to the back end of the list.

I'm not convinced Peek's stuff works at the major league level since his main out pitch is a high spin rate curveball. I need to see that curveball work wit the major league ball as we saw with Bradish and Kremer, it's not easy to keep that sharp break with the major league ball. 

Mundy just missed and honestly, I had him on the list until I had some reservation about his K rate climbing, line drive rate falling, and ability to stay on the field. He's also base cloggingly slow. 

Saying that, he was impressive overall but I want him to do it in AA. 

Both are worth watching though and will be in my "Other players to watch in 2022" coming out Monday.

[Tony-OH]

15 hours ago, glenn__davis said:

Yeah, you could make a case for any of those international guys - Ramirez, De Los Santos, Lara - I think those guys are still so far away that I get why they're not there yet though.

I seriously thought about adding De Los Santos, but want to see him do it at a high level than the DSL. Also he was a bit of an error machine at 3B. He outperformed Hernandez offensively and is the same age, so pedigree aside, there's something to like about him. He's worth watching though and will be in my "Other players to watch in 2022" coming out Monday.

[Tony-OH]

15 hours ago, RZNJ said:

I would go with Darell Hernaiz.   Just turned 20.   He held his own at 19 in low A.   He can play middle INF.   They say he has average tools across the board so the power may increase a bit as he matures.    I think his floor is probably a utility guy but I think he's got a chance to shoot up the board next year.

Hernaniz is very similar to Servideo when it comes his most likely outcome, but I was a little disappointed by the tools I saw this year from Hernaniz this year. Nothing really stands out and I'd argue his tools may be more 45 than 50. The slip in plate discipline with the lack of power dropped him for me. 

He was young for his league and if he gets stronger, he's got a chance, but he doesn't move as well as I would have liked for e middle infielder.

[Tony-OH]

14 hours ago, bpilktree said:

I thought about it some and I think I would go Brnovich as my guy just because he put up solid numbers at both levels.  I know the stuff isn’t top notch or anything but when you are starter with a whip just above 1 and have 125ks to 26BB in 95 innings you have to know how to pitch.  

You'll see in my  "Other players to watch in 2022" coming out Monday why I have him just off the list. I really went round and round with him because the numbers say he should be on the list. Let's say he was heavily in the running for the back end of the list and I don't have an issue with anyone who thinks he should be. There's a good argument to made for him to be there, but for me, he fell just off.

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I'm not convinced Peek's stuff works at the major league level since his main out pitch is a high spin rate curveball. I need to see that curveball work wit the major league ball as we saw with Bradish and Kremer, it's not easy to keep that sharp break with the major league ball. 

Mundy just missed and honestly, I had him on the list until I had some reservation about his K rate climbing, line drive rate falling, and ability to stay on the field. He's also base cloggingly slow. 

Saying that, he was impressive overall but I want him to do it in AA. 

Both are worth watching though and will be in my "Other players to watch in 2022" coming out Monday.

Sucks that Mundy got hurt.  I would have liked to have seen him play at the upper levels this year.

[Tony-OH]

14 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

Those are good picks. Would also add Zach Watson.

Kind of boring but also Alex Wells. Still very solid AAA numbers. Disappointed in promotion to MLB but arguably better body of work than Lowther who is still top 15. Seems kinda harsh to drop him out of the top 30 altogether.  

I can understand the Watson love here by some, but he can't hit anything but fastballs and they figured it out in AA when he really hit poorly down the stretch. That BB-K ratio is scary, especially for a guy who hasn't shown he can hit for average. He can hit the heck out of fastballs though and could still potentially be a platoon 4th outfielder against let-handed pitching, but he's got to figure out a better plan at the plate.

When it comes to Wells, it's all about stuff. I have statcast data for his pitches and I don't see how his mix works long term. He's a very smart pitcher who when he's commanding may be able to get you into the 5th or 6th inning, but he's going to be giving up runs while he does it. 

Lowther's stuff is just better than Wells. Lowther also was treated poorly by the club and once he was in a routine, he pitched pretty well.

[Tony-OH]

33 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I would like to know from Tony who he feels he wishes he had a spot for and if Rangel (#30) would be the first guy he would remove.

Honestly, Mundy, Brnovich and Peek were all in the running for that last spot. I just decide to got with upside over guys with lower ceilings but potentially high floors. 

I've only seen limited video's of Rangel so really giving him the bump over the scouting report I got, and his numbers in the FCL. 

Servideo is the guy I went round and round with myself. If you look at his wOBA and wRC+ he was really hitting well although not for any power, which is a concern. Defensively the accuracy of his throws is an issue but he was getting bumped around a lot so it's hard to just one day play SS when you've been playing 2B, especially early in his career when 2B was a new position for him. 

Haskin was close to being higher but his dead pull approach turns me off a little and he just doesn't wow you when you watch him play. Like, I don't watch him and see "big leaguer" despite his draft status. Saying that, he can barrel up the ball at times though he's a line drive hitter vs a guy who lifts the ball, and he's a decent defensive outfielder so he does have a chance at being a 4th outfielder. I just don't see regular with him without a major change in his power production.

 

[Frobby]

Eyeballing the 2020 list, one guy who fell off was Brenan Hanifee.   Like Carter Baumler, he missed the year with TJ surgery.   Yet, Baumler held his 2020 position at 16, while Hanifee fell from no. 20 to completely off the list.   I couid argue that if Baumler wasn’t penalized, Hanifee shouldn’t be either, or at least, not to the extent of falling completely off the list.   

Now, one difference is that Baumler has recovered to the point where he’s scheduled for a normal offseason and spring training, whereas Hanifee only had his surgery on May 27 and probably won’t pitch until 2-3 months into next season.  And of course, Baumler was the higher rated prospect to begin with.   

I’m hoping that Hanifee re-emerges in May/June and is able to put together a solid season.   

 

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Honestly, Mundy, Brnovich and Peek were all in the running for that last spot. I just decide to got with upside over guys with lower ceilings but potentially high floors. 

I've only seen limited video's of Rangel so really giving him the bump over the scouting report I got, and his numbers in the FCL. 

Servideo is the guy I went round and round with myself. If you look at his wOBA and wRC+ he was really hitting well although not for any power, which is a concern. Defensively the accuracy of his throws is an issue but he was getting bumped around a lot so it's hard to just one day play SS when you've been playing 2B, especially early in his career when 2B was a new position for him. 

Haskin was close to being higher but his dead pull approach turns me off a little and he just doesn't wow you when you watch him play. Like, I don't watch him and see "big leaguer" despite his draft status. Saying that, he can barrel up the ball at times though he's a line drive hitter vs a guy who lifts the ball, and he's a decent defensive outfielder so he does have a chance at being a 4th outfielder. I just don't see regular with him without a major change in his power production.

 

Is this the best list, in terms of talent, you have ever done?  In other words, is this the strongest you have ever seen the system?

[UMDTerrapins]

16 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

You'll see in my  "Other players to watch in 2022" coming out Monday why I have him just off the list. I really went round and round with him because the numbers say he should be on the list. Let's say he was heavily in the running for the back end of the list and I don't have an issue with anyone who thinks he should be. There's a good argument to made for him to be there, but for me, he fell just off.

I remember thinking Brnovich just didn't have the fastball to set up his off speed pitches (which are pretty good). Even at AA, if his FB gets anything other than the edges of the zone it gets tattooed. I'll be really interested to see your "other players to watch" list. I'm interested to see Tavera next year. And I haven't found any explanation about Heid not debuting this year. 

[Tony-OH]

11 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Is this the best list, in terms of talent, you have ever done?  In other words, is this the strongest you have ever seen the system?

I do think it's the most deep depth this organization as ever had and the top 9 are probably the best I've seen. The pitching is thin overall and while there are a lot of guys that can play SS, I'm not sure it has a legitimate impact SS in the system who can also be an impact defensively. 

It's going to be interesting when some of these guys are ready and play a lot of the same positions. Elias is quickly getting to the point where he's going to have to make those prospects for established players trades. That's a skill we don't know about him yet. 

So far his established players for prospects has been ok (Vavra, Pinto, Bradish as highlights) but we we need to find out how he develops a winning franchise while keeping a deep and talented system of replacements.