How Long Will Elias Stay in Baltimore?

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The better question (and really only question) is how long will the Angelos family be here?  I think that has a big impact on Elias in terms of how long he stays here.

Im not sure how hot of a commodity he will be until the ML team starts winning.  He isn’t doing anything most teams don’t do already. 

I think you have to assume the Angelos family will own the Orioles forever, until we hear from reliable sources that there’s a serious effort underway to sell the team.   Speculating about a sale is a waste of time.    

We don’t know how long Elias’ contract is.   We don’t know what he was told about what resources would be made available to him and when.   We don’t know what the Angelos family was told about how long the rebuild process would take.   So, we really don’t know a damned thing relevant to the question of how long Elias might stay.    
 

[UMDTerrapins]

I think he’s already made a good impression by turning around the farm system and will be in demand…it’s not just anyone who can do what he’s done. While he’s done a really good job at accumulating talent, he is entirely unproven at roster construction. I’d guess that if can craft that raw talent into a winner at the ML level, he’ll be a really hot commodity. The better we do, the more certain it is that he’ll be poached. 

[jabba72]

Unknown what Elias is thinking. If the Orioles open up the payroll for him he may be inclined to stay. For some reason though I dont trust the Angelos family to get the next hire right. Two good VP hires in a row seems like a stretch for them. 

[btdart20]

In general, I think Elias has been a success.  The budget constraints (even this year) have probably been 'part of the plan' to date though.  (Whether you agree/disagree with that approach is a separate matter.)  Elias and the rebuild projects he's led are the only bright spots in the org.  But the team/fans can't continue on the 'rebuild' path forever...  I honestly think we're at the tail end of the rebuild (at least if Elias has his way).  And we need to start seeing the sweat/blood paying off as we transition to an ongoing and sustainable mindset (whatever that looks like).

ML lack of spending and talent shield the average fan from how good Elias has been on the whole.  However, engaged/competing owners know the value of a guy who can identify and develop talent better than competitors.  Elias' value would be much higher if the ML team is winning, but it's not the same shield within the industry as it is for outsiders.

I can see three paths:

1. He's not paid by the Angelos family because...  they are cheap, want more, whatever...

2. He's paid because they know he's returning value for a lower cost.  Same as most businesses and mid/upper management.  If Elias meets whatever ROI goals he has, then I bet he's paid.

3. He's offered more because the Angelos family sees that Elias is adding value, but Elias walks because the Angelos family isn't meeting Elias' spending/competing hopes.

[Three Run Homer]

Elias has made some unorthodox decisions in how to build the farm system--especially his decision to focus his high draft picks and international bonuses almost exclusively on position players rather than pitchers.   Maybe he thinks the O's will be able to sign free agent pitchers when the time comes (perhaps with the help of the new dimensions in left field), or maybe he thinks he'll be able to trade young position players for young pitchers. 

The jury is out on whether this approach will work, and I don't think he will be seen as a hot commodity until the O's have success on the field.  The O's currently have enough good position players in the system to envision a playoff-caliber lineup. but they are a long way from having enough pitching talent in the system for this team to be competitive.  

[Can_of_corn]

Right now he's a one trick pony and they just took the trick away.

[LookinUp]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

... He isn’t doing anything most teams don’t do already. 

Completely disagree with the above. I'd wager the O's are top 5-7 in innovation in the minors. Maybe higher. I think we have a really smart approach for the first time in a long, long, time.

I do agree though that the jury is out on pitching, which is kind of a huge deal. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, LookinUp said:

Completely disagree with the above. I'd wager the O's are top 5-7 in innovation in the minors. Maybe higher. I think we have a really smart approach for the first time in a long, long, time.

I do agree though that the jury is out on pitching, which is kind of a huge deal. 

Got any examples?

[waroriole]

1 minute ago, LookinUp said:

Completely disagree with the above. I'd wager the O's are top 5-7 in innovation in the minors. Maybe higher. I think we have a really smart approach for the first time in a long, long, time.

I do agree though that the jury is out on pitching, which is kind of a huge deal. 

The jury is only out on pitching because he’s ignored it. You can’t just ignore an assignment and get an extension. He’s been able to get by because the prior regime left 2 TOR prospects. It’s easier to assemble a great group of batting prospects when it’s the only thing you draft. 

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Completely disagree with the above. I'd wager the O's are top 5-7 in innovation in the minors. Maybe higher. I think we have a really smart approach for the first time in a long, long, time.

I do agree though that the jury is out on pitching, which is kind of a huge deal. 

Yea I know you are in the contingent that we are re-inventing the wheel.

What is Happening in the minors Is great and is/was sorely needed.  But it’s not hard.  Losing on purpose isn’t hard.  
 

What matters is what you can turn that into for a ML winner.

So I stand by what I said…I don’t see him as some hot commodity until he starts to win.  It doesn’t mean he isn’t good at what he does, it just means he hasn’t really proven anything yet and until he does, it’s hard for me to believe that teams are knocking down his door to get him to come to them.

[Moose Milligan]

15 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Completely disagree with the above. I'd wager the O's are top 5-7 in innovation in the minors. Maybe higher. I think we have a really smart approach for the first time in a long, long, time.

I do agree though that the jury is out on pitching, which is kind of a huge deal. 

What innovations have the Orioles implemented to rank them so highly?

[geschinger]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

What matters is what you can turn that into for a ML winner.

So I stand by what I said…I don’t see him as some hot commodity until he starts to win.  It doesn’t mean he isn’t good at what he does, it just means he hasn’t really proven anything yet and until he does, it’s hard for me to believe that teams are knocking down his door to get him to come to them.

Not yet, the foundation he's created has to start producing at the MLB level.  But if it does, if he shows a legitimate pipeline successfully producing quality MLB talent and he's hamstrung from adding pieces to try to win there will be no shortage of teams looking for him to do similar but with the resources to win.

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

What is Happening in the minors Is great and is/was sorely needed.  But it’s not hard.  Losing on purpose isn’t hard.  

If there was any truth to what is happening with the Orioles farm system not being hard every team would be doing it and the Orioles wouldn't have been able to make up as much ground as they have in the last four years.  

Having the discipline to lose on purpose is extrodinarily hard. Ownerhsip gets impatient seeing attendance plummet, fans stop caring.  Critcism abounds, reputations are at risk if you don't get to follow through on the plan.  It's like organizational chemotherapy.  It's brutal.  But when it works, when the patient doesn't die and emerges cancer free it was worth it and the organization will be much better off than it would be if it hadn't gone through it.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:

What innovations have the Orioles implemented to rank them so highly?

The bar is so low for this organization that when they do things that make sense and other teams do, we elevate them higher than everyone else.

[interloper]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

Its only been two years really.  2020 doesn't count other than the 6 draft choices.   There was no  minor league season.

I expect that Angelos will spend when the fans return to Camden. Covid permitting.   If they are bringing in revenue he will spend.  

I think Angelos will want to keep Elias.  Its cheaper to spend on Elias than players.  Elias has bought into working with low payrolls.  Tampa style.

Will Elias want to stay?   I don't know, what will other  teams offer?

I don't understand why @Can_of_corndown voted this. There's nothing offensive or trolling about this post. 

[Sports Guy]

16 minutes ago, geschinger said:

Not yet, the foundation he's created has to start producing at the MLB level.  But if it does, if he shows a legitimate pipeline successfully producing quality MLB talent and he's hamstrung from adding pieces to try to win there will be no shortage of teams looking for him to do similar but with the resources to win.

If there was any truth to what is happening with the Orioles farm system not being hard every team would be doing it and the Orioles wouldn't have been able to make up as much ground as they have in the last four years.  

Having the discipline to lose on purpose is extrodinarily hard. Ownerhsip gets impatient seeing attendance plummet, fans stop caring.  Critcism abounds, reputations are at risk if you don't get to follow through on the plan.  It's like organizational chemotherapy.  It's brutal.  But when it works, when the patient doesn't die and emerges cancer free it was worth it and the organization will be much better off than it would be if it hadn't gone through it.

If/when the Orioles get back to winning, they will not have gotten back to win because of losing.  That’s a fallacy.