Who do you want? Who do we take?

[Just Regular]

I noticed this pull from Fangraphs 2019 draft coverage in the Gunnar draft pick thread from three years back, as Elias sifts some more high school bats this year.

 

Full Report

Henderson has late helium to multiple teams in the teens but may fall more into the late 20s or 30s, which is where most scouts have him. He's shown performance at times, but faced weak competition this spring, so some clubs are still skeptical about the offensive ceiling.

[Kaven5]

Has to be Jones. The last thing the Orioles need is to miss like last year.  Jordan Lawlar, .354ba  7hr  23rbi   18sb 1.056ops, was the obvious pick last year but not for Elias. The Diamondbacks will reap the reward for Oriole budget ball.

[emmett16]

Want: Jones

Take: Jones

[Sports Guy]

 

[OriolesMagic83]

19 hours ago, Kaven5 said:

Has to be Jones. The last thing the Orioles need is to miss like last year.  Jordan Lawlar, .354ba  7hr  23rbi   18sb 1.056ops, was the obvious pick last year but not for Elias. The Diamondbacks will reap the reward for Oriole budget ball.

I agree, the great thing about drafting in the top 5 or first is not that you can take an overslot in the 3rd round, it's that you can get premium talent that other teams not drafting in the top 5 can't get unless they want to pay market free agent rates.  Picking the 10th best player with a top 5 pick is stupid and gives away all the advantage your team got by having a terrible year.  It's not like the O's are stacked with SS prospects.  Imagine how much Lawler would help Elias' precious farm rating if he was with the O's instead of the Diamondbacks.

[RZNJ]

Law thinks 5 guys are worthy of the #1 pick.  Who is his top 5?

 

His top 3 were 1. Jones.  2. Collier 3. Johnson.   4 ? Holliday  5? Lee

[Sydnor]

6 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Law thinks 5 guys are worthy of the #1 pick.  Who is his top 5?

 

His top 3 were 1. Jones.  2. Collier 3. Johnson.   4 ? Holliday  5? Lee

1. Jones

2. Collier

3. Johnson

4. Green

5. Lee

6. Holliday

https://theathletic.com/3366251/2022/06/16/mlb-draft-prospects-kumar-rocker/?source=user_shared_article

[RZNJ]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

 

Almost sounds like Law has them grouped by tier even though his board has a #1, a #2, etc.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

Almost sounds like Law has them grouped by tier even though his board has a #1, a #2, etc.

No, that never happens!

[Go_Os]

I want Jones or whichever HS bat Elias thinks has the most upside.

I think we will get just that.  My guess is that Elias knows this is probably our last chance to have the #1 pick, so it makes sense to take the best player available.  

[Sports Guy]

13 hours ago, Frobby said:

No, that never happens!

No one said they don’t do it by some kind of tier…but there is a ranking.  There is a “I think this guy is the best”..”this guy is second best”, etc…

For some, there is separation.  For others, there isn’t much at all but there is a ranking.

There isn’t a 3 way tie for first place.  

[Frobby]

33 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

No one said they don’t do it by some kind of tier…but there is a ranking.  There is a “I think this guy is the best”..”this guy is second best”, etc…

For some, there is separation.  For others, there isn’t much at all but there is a ranking.

There isn’t a 3 way tie for first place.  

Obviously, they don’t just flip a coin.  But in some cases the difference can be small and depends on how you weigh upside vs. risk or how you rank certain skills in terms of importance.   One guy is likely to have the better bat.   The other guy is sure to have the better glove.   Who do you choose?   Depends on (1) just how likely you think it is that one guy has the better bat, and (2) how much offense will do you think you need to overcome the other player’s defensive advantage?  These are tough calls, and people can see them differently.   You’ve got 10 scouts who’ve seen them.  Six prefer player A.  Four prefer player B.   Your computer model has a slight preference for B.   You easily can see that in a case like that, a sizable difference in bonus demand could drive a decision.  

[RZNJ]

47 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

No one said they don’t do it by some kind of tier…but there is a ranking.  There is a “I think this guy is the best”..”this guy is second best”, etc…

For some, there is separation.  For others, there isn’t much at all but there is a ranking.

There isn’t a 3 way tie for first place.  

Ok, but Law is saying he's got 5 guys where the difference is so small that he basically has no idea which player is going to turn out better.  How else does he justify passing on Jones for $2 million?  And he's one person.  As Frobby points out the Orioles evaluators could be split on 3-4 players.  Law is singular and he can't decide that there's much difference between his 1 and his 5.  In fact, he's willing to take his #5 to save $2M.  Now what?

[Sports Guy]

27 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Ok, but Law is saying he's got 5 guys where the difference is so small that he basically has no idea which player is going to turn out better.  How else does he justify passing on Jones for $2 million?  And he's one person.  As Frobby points out the Orioles evaluators could be split on 3-4 players.  Law is singular and he can't decide that there's much difference between his 1 and his 5.  In fact, he's willing to take his #5 to save $2M.  Now what?

Great..none of this actually addresses the point I was making In response to Frobby’s incorrect post.

That said, ok..Law sees it as close. And?  I mean, different evaluators see things differently.  Law thought Jahmai Jones was a top 10 prospect for us.  You pointed out his Adam Hall obsession.

Law is also assuming the Os will take the money saved and go big on another player or 2 that makes it worth it to pass on the top guy.  They didn’t do that last year and there is nothing that says they definitely do it this year…and they can do it anyway even if they pay slot for the first pick.

Others see Jones as more clearly the top guy.   Some may not have him as the top guy at all.

This is all very simple.  You take the #1 player on your board.  There is a reason you have that guy first. You have the luxury of taking any player you want in this draft when you have the first pick and the player you want the most should be the player you choose.  And yes, it is that simple because the Os have a ton of money they can spend in this draft.

[RZNJ]

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Great..none of this actually addresses the point I was making In response to Frobby’s incorrect post.

That said, ok..Law sees it as close. And?  I mean, different evaluators see things differently.  Law thought Jahmai Jones was a top 10 prospect for us.  You pointed out his Adam Hall obsession.

Law is also assuming the Os will take the money saved and go big on another player or 2 that makes it worth it to pass on the top guy.  They didn’t do that last year and there is nothing that says they definitely do it this year…and they can do it anyway even if they pay slot for the first pick.

Others see Jones as more clearly the top guy.   Some may not have him as the top guy at all.

This is all very simple.  You take the #1 player on your board.  There is a reason you have that guy first. You have the luxury of taking any player you want in this draft when you have the first pick and the player you want the most should be the player you choose.  And yes, it is that simple because the Os have a ton of money they can spend in this draft.

Simple. 100%. Black and white. Crystal clear.   Law said, for him, it’s not that simple. There may be other professional evaluators who feel it’s not that simple.  It’s great that it’s simple for you.  That way your head won’t hurt.

Btw, where did Law say “go big” on another guy?  He just said he would used the $2M elsewhere.