Let’s Be Buyers

[Sports Guy]

The bottom line is this..who do you see being part of a long term winner and what needs to be added to become a long term winner.

Those are 2 big questions to ask and now that they are on the doorstep, those are questions that not only do you need to answer but ones you need to now act on.

I think most of our guys are going to fetch more as part of a package deal vs by themselves.

For example, packaging Santander and Tate will bring back more than either of them by themselves.

It will also be interesting to see if the team tries to make a move before the draft to obtain any other picks.

[oriolefan1035]

26 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

We are 20 games out with 3 in our own division in front of us. If they buy a SP that has several years of control fine. But, they should still be looking to trade Trey, Santander, Tate, and Lopez is they get aggressive bidders.

And it would be foolish to chase the wild care….perhaps tempting for fans. I doubt Elias will cave to it.

The key there is “if they get aggressive bidders”. We have several long threads on who our trade bait, and I don’t think anyone there actually believes we’ll get substantial returns for those guys. We have the best farm system in baseball and don’t need to add a thousand C level prospects at this point. We’re now within 6 games of all 3 Wild Card spots and if not buy, should not be sabotaging our playoff chances for this year by trading everything not nailed down to add more guys to our 21-30 prospect range.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Jagwar said:

When has that ever happened? Not trying to be snarky, just wondering if a team has ever approached the deadline as a buyer and a seller and successfully pulled off trades. 

I feel like it has happened.  I’d have to go back and look.  I would say it likely hasn’t happened to the scale I would like to see it.

That said, sometimes you can buy and sell in one deal.  Let’s just say, for example, you could deal Mullins for Meyer and Lopez.  (Not saying you can although I do think it’s possible)

That would be a deal where you are buying and selling within the same trade.  
 

That’s what I would like to see.  I would sell off the role player pieces like Santander, Mancini and Tate and then use Mullins or Hays to acquire cost controlled, ML (or near ML) ready pitching.

The wild card, for me, is Lopez.  No idea what his market is.  My gut feeling would be that his market won’t be great because he just hasn’t done it enough but teams do get desperate for late inning relievers at the deadline, so we shall see.

But I wouldn’t hesitate to move some younger prospects in a deal for something we need either.

[oriole]

I don’t really think being buyers is the greatest idea in the world but if Elias decided to not be sellers either, that would be interesting. Mancini would walk at the end of the year, but let’s be honest…he isn’t bringing much back that’s going to add much to one of the best farm systems in baseball. Same goes for Santander. Only exception could be Lopez, who is probably having an outlier year, but I wouldn’t be upset if they chose to keep him. It’s not like he’s a free agent this off-season. 
 

Let’s also keep in mind that Tyler Wells will be out of the rotation at some point and the rest of the rotation is playing above their heads. It’s fun, but let’s not make any assumptions about how things will go when we’re finishing up our schedule vs the AL East. 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Chelsea_Phil said:

No way.  Once we get back to playing Eastern division teams, we will be playing .400 ball at best, Unfortunately.  Heck, even Boston is playing lights out for the last month or so.

We have played .441 ball against the AL East so far.   I think it’s realistic to think we could do that well in the second half, especially since we’ve only got 6 games remaining with the Yankees.   

I do not think we will be WC contenders in any scenario, but let’s see what the situation is in three weeks.  
 

[wildcard]

There are 10 games coming up this month with the Rays and Yankees.  That will be a good indicator of how good the O's are at this point.   If the O's play well vs those two teams Elias can:

1)  Extend Mancini if he is a integrate part of the winning solution.   Then revisit this off season how he fits into the O's future.

2) Call up  DL Hall.   Right now the 5 starters the O's have are doing well.  But the Yanks and Rays will test Voth and Watkins. Sulser can be optioned.

3) Evaluate Odor vs Vavra.   Odor seems to be a key part of the O's mojo.   But Vavra has that .400 OBP.   There is no hurry to make a move here if Odor is helping the team win.  He is not going to bring much in trade anyway.  They are both primarily 2B without much versatility.  Though Vavra could play LF on the road.  He is not going to play over Hays.  Vavra is not going to play CF over Mullins and McKenna.

4) There is a decision on whether to promote Westburg to help at 3B.   Urias  can play there.  They are using Arauz some.  He is not has good as Westburg.   This would be adding Westburg to the 40 man before the Rule 5 draft so Elias will need to be pretty sure the O's are contenders before he does it.

The O's are probably seller if they don't do well vs the Yanks and Rays. But if they do well in those ten games the O's should be promoter of their AAA prospects.  Those prospects are probably better than what Elias can get on the market.

 

 

[wildcard]

20 minutes ago, oriolefan1035 said:

The key there is “if they get aggressive bidders”. We have several long threads on who our trade bait, and I don’t think anyone there actually believes we’ll get substantial returns for those guys. We have the best farm system in baseball and don’t need to add a thousand C level prospects at this point. We’re now within 6 games of all 3 Wild Card spots and if not buy, should not be sabotaging our playoff chances for this year by trading everything not nailed down to add more guys to our 21-30 prospect range.

5 games out of the WC.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, oriole said:

I don’t really think being buyers is the greatest idea in the world but if Elias decided to not be sellers either, that would be interesting. Mancini would walk at the end of the year, but let’s be honest…he isn’t bringing much back that’s going to add much to one of the best farm systems in baseball. Same goes for Santander. Only exception could be Lopez, who is probably having an outlier year, but I wouldn’t be upset if they chose to keep him. It’s not like he’s a free agent this off-season. 
 

Let’s also keep in mind that Tyler Wells will be out of the rotation at some point and the rest of the rotation is playing above their heads. It’s fun, but let’s not make any assumptions about how things will go when we’re finishing up our schedule vs the AL East. 

I think for most of us the idea of being a buyer is to set the team up starting in 2023.

Sometime over the next month, assuming health and continued performance (or close to it), the Orioles will bring up Westburg, Henderson, Vavra, Stowers and Diaz…and in the pitching side, Hall will be up…perhaps Baumann back up if he keeps pitching well.

Gone will/should be Odor, Mancini, Santander and perhaps others.  Maybe a guy like Urias, who I still like and feels can have a good role in 2023, would be part of a trade for a pitcher.

We should really get a good view of those guys heading into the offseason.

Its hard to expect a lineup of homegrown players to be successful but I think it’s fair to assume, unless trades occur, that they Os go into next year with Rutschman, Mountcastle, Henderson, Westburg, Stowers, Hays and Mullins all starting.  That leaves us with the need for one IFer (that could be Vavra, it just depends on where you play Henderson and Westburg) and someone to DH.  Diaz could be in that role and your 4th OFer.  But there likely will be room to add a bat somewhere.

I don’t think the Os, again unless they make a trade with some of these guys in it, will block any of those guys for 2023.

Pitching wise, for 2023, if healthy should see Hall, GROd and Wells in the rotation.  Means is back at some point.  Bradish is a mystery. No one else is really likely cracking the rotation.

So, I think it’s fair to say you need to add 2 starters heading into next year. Nothing wrong with going out and getting those guys right now.

[foxfield]

I'd love to see the Orioles acquire a quality SP... I am just not sure that other than younger players we have anything that will bring that back.  The best chance is if a bat and arm are moved together.

The reality is that what we need, is pitching but what we can get for what we are making available may not bring that.  

Of course I am happy to be surprised.  Hopefully there are deals to be made.

[Sports Guy]

Just now, foxfield said:

I'd love to see the Orioles acquire a quality SP... I am just not sure that other than younger players we have anything that will bring that back.  The best chance is if a bat and arm are moved together.

The reality is that what we need, is pitching but what we can get for what we are making available may not bring that.  

Of course I am happy to be surprised.  Hopefully there are deals to be made.

It’s an interesting discussion.  What is needed more…an AS level CFer who will be on the wrong side of 30 soon enough and making a good salary or young pitching?

Mullins is certainly more of a sure thing, at least in the near future.

[Frobby]

36 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Should be buying and selling.

 

28 minutes ago, Jagwar said:

When has that ever happened? Not trying to be snarky, just wondering if a team has ever approached the deadline as a buyer and a seller and successfully pulled off trades. 

Without actually looking, I’d guess that Oakland and Tampa have done this at times.  

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Frobby said:

 

Without actually looking, I’d guess that Oakland and Tampa have done this at times.  

Yep.  That was my first thought too, especially Tampa.  I feel like they have traded some guys while adding relievers or something along those lines.

[oriolefan1035]

4 minutes ago, wildcard said:

5 games out of the WC.

5 out of the 3rd WC, 6 out from the 1st WC. I’ve seen it pointed out that there are other teams ahead of us for the 3rd WC, but the reality is that it’s tight on the other end too. We’re not chasing a single vulnerable playoff spot.

 

I think your other post is spot on by the way. We have some big promotion decisions coming up that could be a bigger help to the Orioles than trading for players.

[beantownrefugee]

4 hours ago, wildcard said:

O's won, Jays lost.   O's are 5 back.

Yes!  This post has me giddy. Been way too long since we've watched the nightly results and re-calculated the standings.  Fun, fun!

If the O's can keep within striking distance as the trade deadline approaches, that would leave Elias in an outstanding negotiating position. Always want the best Option B.  Elias can tell other teams that he can stand pat and keep going for a wild card berth, but make me an offer I can't refuse.  Far better than Option B being keeping the team intact for (relatively) meaningless games.

I'd look to trade all of the players people are mentioning....Mancini, Santander, Lopez, Tate...and I'd add in Lyles to that mix.  A key to a good return will be whether the O's provide salary relief to the other team, esp. for a Mancini or Lyles trade.  Hopefully the answer is yes.  Those costs were already planned to be allocated this season.  Let's not dampen our return for the sake of a few bucks.

[Flash- bd]

Please no! Last thing I want to see is the Davies, Rodriguez, etc. deals repeated. We are 5 games under at the best point in our season, and it's not like we are some team that planned on competing this year, that put a lot of money into certain expectations this season, that is falling below them, we are still in a rebuild and have no need to force it. 

Sellers all the way this season until at least next. 

18 minutes ago, beantownrefugee said:

I'd look to trade all of the players people are mentioning....Mancini, Santander, Lopez, Tate...and I'd add in Lyles to that mix.

Do agree with this, though. And would probably add Mullins there.