Here is where Elias’ job gets hard

[Ohfan67]

Unfortunately, there's a pretty high probability that the Orioles are going to get their butts kicked multiple times over the next few weeks. A five game losing streak will provide a pretty clear and different perspective on the way forward. 

[interloper]

I agree now it's the fun part for Elias. He's going to be judged more heavily on this next phase than he was the last few years. Things are about to get exciting.

[Roll Tide]

50 minutes ago, ScGO's said:

We DO NOT have the pitching to make the playoffs in 2022; even if by chance we did earn a WC spot, we don't have the pitching to go deep in the playoffs.

I think you bring in more youth for Mancini, Lyles, Santander, Lopez, etc.  You really aren't losing a ton at the MLB level with that group.  The O's may even be able to stay competitive after trading that group.

But again, we don't have the pitching to go deep in the playoffs this year.  Next year we get Means and Gray Rod back, and I would expect Elias to be creative and find another quality arm or two through free agency or through trade.

A Starting 5 of Means, Gray Rod, Wells, Kremer, +1 or 2 acquistions could be interesting.  Bullpen could be strong or need a few holes plugged if Elias trades both Lopez and Tate.

I think you need to use the final 2 months of the season to see what you have in Henderson, Westburg, Vavra, Diaz, Stowers, Neustrom, etc to see who is ready to help with a playoff run in 2023.

We'll see what Elias brings in for pitching, but I think can compete for a playoff spots if we go into 2023 with:

C- Rutchman

1B- Mountcastle

2B - Vavra/Urias

3B - Westburg/Henderson

SS - Henderson/Westburg

OF - Hays/Mullins/Stowers

DH - Urias/?

Super Utility- Mateo

I said earlier ….. trading Lyles without bringing in another SP that gives you 5-6 every start could be a serious mistake and cause the pitching staff to detonate. Wells will be shutdown at some point, you can’t expect anything  from Gray Rod, and per admission by Elias 2 days ago Hall isn’t ready.

[RZNJ]

I don't think you're going to see the bullpen guys moved.  The bullpen has been the backbone of the team and that bullpen depth is fragile.  It's not quite as easy to put a bullpen together as people think.  None of those guys are pending FA's either.  It would have to be a no brainer offer.

[InsideCoroner]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

Plus we have talent that can help us now for a shot at pulling off a miracle in 22. I really see no reason to hold off on Vavra or Westburg at minimum.

I guess the biggest decision is do you trade Mancini, Santander, or both. Or what happens if someone makes a wow offer for Lopez. 

I have to think the winning streak might have complicated matters a bit for the FO. When they’re 35-44, dealing some guys before the deadline probably wouldn’t have caused many waves. But now, two games under .500 and drawing some more fan attention, there could be some backlash if people feel like they move in the wrong direction before the deadline (even if it’s for the greater good, or they’re able to land some better-than-expected prospects in return). 

I don’t think it will change their actions, but there’s certainly a little more scrutiny than there was a week ago. 

[btdart20]

Up to now, Elias has focused on long term org building.  He’s had to make a few decisions each year to scab in gaps but signing Lyles was the start of something different.
But now Elias has to balance the long term goal of being a perennial contender making deep runs in the playoffs vs. short term goals of being more competitive this year.  It’s possible to do both but the tension between those goals is real.  Elias’ job become harder only if he has conflicting goals.  It sounds like he doesn’t given he’s spoken about being a “buyer” and “seller”.  He’s building an org for perennial competition (at least as far as he’s concerned).
Comparing our starting line up with our competitors I’m not convinced we have the horses for 2022. If buying (to us) is promoting prospects and holding our guys, then (on paper) we’re not keeping up with the pace of improvement the teams ahead of us will make.  
Let’s revel in the unexpected joys of the now but keep our eye on the WS prize in decisions!  The plan is seeing fruit!

[LookinUp]

The only guy I’d sell for not above market is Santander and that’s because his replacement may be better.

Otherwise, you don’t have to deal. Not even Mancini, though I’d be fine with trading him or Santander depending on who brings the most back.

Get Westburg, Stowers, Henderson, Hall and Vavra up around 8-1 and let them play. Hopefully Rodriguez is ready on 9-1. 
 

Figure out a SP acquisition in the off-season.

[OriolesMagic83]

I don't see Elias trading for anyone before the trade deadline.  The improvement in the O's will likely make him hang onto any controllable players.  For instance, I can't see Hays or Mullins being traded now because it would open major holes on the 2023 team.  I will be surprised if Mancini and/or Santander are not traded and at least reliever. 

[sportsfan8703]

Gunnar Gunnar nothing funner. 

[scbalt52]

Here is how I hope we proceed with this situation with the deadline and semi-trying to compete this year now:

• Trade Santander + Tate for a MLB ready SP or decent vet under control for at least a few years (Pitcher X) + decent prospect or 2 depending on SP we get
• Call up Stowers as Santander's replacement
• Call up Bradish for Watkins (or Voth, take your pick)
• Call up Hall and Westburg (might be a little early for Westburg but let's go for it) for Nevin + Garcia
• Call up Harvey for McKenna
• Call up Bannon
• Call up Diaz for Uruaz (Let's see what we have for a month of Bannon and Diaz playing sporadically before giving up hope on them, I want to see them vs. Aruaz + McKenna)

6 man rotation to extend Wells' innings:

• Wells
• Bradish
• Kremer
• Lyles
• Pitcher X
• Harvey

Lineup:

• Mullins
• Mancini
• Hays
• Mountcastle
• Rutschman
• Urias
• Stowers
• Westburg
• Odor

Bench:

• Chirinos
• Mateo
• Diaz
• Bannon

Bullpen:

• Voth (or Watkins)
• Akin
• Baker
• Bautista
• Krehbiel
• Perez
• Lopez

What does that sound like? We make a trade but improve the current and future team still, IMO. I think Santander and Tate have some value as a package.

I'd be fine with Vavra replacing Odor at any point. We can have Baumann replace Voth at any point, too. I think they wait on Gunnar until next year. If we're really in the thick of the wildcard race still in September, maybe we pull the trigger on him coming up. I don't think we'll get any significant offer for Mancini and we decide to just keep him around for the rest of the year.

I'm hoping Hall gets called up for this Cubs series but I think we will wait until after all-star break. We might wait a little longer for Westburg, around August 1st, but I'm hoping we surprise and pull the trigger on him for the Cubs series, too.

[sportsfan8703]

Rosters expand by 2 spots in 9/1. That’s 7 weeks away. It would be nice to trade for a SP, thus bumping Voth or Watkins to the pen.
 

Hall and Westburg should be considered to be called up. Small upgrades over McKenna(Stowers) and Nevin(Westburg) would be welcomed. If we don’t want to call up any prospects we should look to add vets via low cost trades. 
 

That’s the bare minimum. If we’re serious we should either call up our prospects and trade for a SP. Or trade for a SP, Nevin upgrade, McKenna upgrade, and a vet back end reliever like Givens. 
 

We can “go for it” in a blended way with prospect call ups and small trades. This roster needs a rake and not a bulldozer. 

[Aristotelian]

13 hours ago, scbalt52 said:

Here is how I hope we proceed with this situation with the deadline and semi-trying to compete this year now:

• Trade Santander + Tate for a MLB ready SP or decent vet under control for at least a few years (Pitcher X) + decent prospect or 2 depending on SP we get
• Call up Stowers as Santander's replacement
• Call up Bradish for Watkins (or Voth, take your pick)
• Call up Hall and Westburg (might be a little early for Westburg but let's go for it) for Nevin + Garcia
• Call up Harvey for McKenna
• Call up Bannon
• Call up Diaz for Uruaz (Let's see what we have for a month of Bannon and Diaz playing sporadically before giving up hope on them, I want to see them vs. Aruaz + McKenna)

6 man rotation to extend Wells' innings:

• Wells
• Bradish
• Kremer
• Lyles
• Pitcher X
• Harvey

Lineup:

• Mullins
• Mancini
• Hays
• Mountcastle
• Rutschman
• Urias
• Stowers
• Westburg
• Odor

Bench:

• Chirinos
• Mateo
• Diaz
• Bannon

Bullpen:

• Voth (or Watkins)
• Akin
• Baker
• Bautista
• Krehbiel
• Perez
• Lopez

What does that sound like? We make a trade but improve the current and future team still, IMO. I think Santander and Tate have some value as a package.

I'd be fine with Vavra replacing Odor at any point. We can have Baumann replace Voth at any point, too. I think they wait on Gunnar until next year. If we're really in the thick of the wildcard race still in September, maybe we pull the trigger on him coming up. I don't think we'll get any significant offer for Mancini and we decide to just keep him around for the rest of the year.

I'm hoping Hall gets called up for this Cubs series but I think we will wait until after all-star break. We might wait a little longer for Westburg, around August 1st, but I'm hoping we surprise and pull the trigger on him for the Cubs series, too.

There is no way we are getting that return for Mancini/Santander. Any team interested in those players is going to want the give up long term prospects, not pitchers catchers ho can help them win now

 

[Sports Guy]

Trade Mullins to Miami for Meyer, Eder and Yiddi Cappe.

Trade Santander for Snell

Trade Tate and Mancini to the Mets for best package of prospects.  High upside guys but players not likely ready for a few years.

Cut/send down Arauz, Garcia and Nevin.  
 

Snell/Lyles/Wells/Kremer/Watkins 

Lopez/Bautista/Kreibhel/Perez/Akin/Baker

IF: Mountcastle, Westburg, Urias, Henderson

OF: Stowers, Hays, Diaz, McKenna

UTI: Mateo, Vavra

C- Rutschman, Chirinos 

Thats 23 spots. Some questions about the remaining spots:

1) Does Odor stay for his leadership?

2) When do bring up Meyer, Eder and Hall?  They could all be part of this team immediately or need to wait a little while longer.

3) What’s the plan for Wells?

4) Can Baumann come up and fill in for Tate at the back end of the pen?

You enter the offseason knowing that you can go into next year with a rotation of Snell, GRod, Wells and Meyer..with Hall and Eder competing for the other spot while we wait for Means.  
 

Henderson, Stowers, Diaz and Westburg get an extended look.  Diaz is fighting for his career and the other 3 are getting their feet wet in anticipation for being major pieces in 2023.

Enter the offseason with a good view of the young guys, another (hopefully) full season of Hays to evaluate his position with the team and the ability to spend whatever you want.  
 

 

[Gentile4]

Unless I'm overwhelmed, there's no way I'm trading Tate. They have, I think, four more years of control, and decimating the bullpen is a big mistake for a team that lives on the edge as it is. Yes, I know, relievers are a fickle bunch, but I really like what I see in Tate.

[Aristotelian]

56 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Trade Mullins to Miami for Meyer, Eder and Yiddi Cappe.

Trade Santander for Snell

Trade Tate and Mancini to the Mets for best package of prospects.  High upside guys but players not likely ready for a few years.

Cut/send down Arauz, Garcia and Nevin.  
 

 

Reportedly Miami wouldn't do Mullins for Meyer in the preseason. Why would they do Meyer now plus more guys, particularly after Mullins has shown some regression? 

Tate has three-plus years of control. I don't see the rush to trade him unless you believe this season is a fluke and he actually sucks. I see a guy who is coming into his own as a solid middle innings guy with the upside of a 7th-8th inning guy. 

At this point, I think my game plan would be to basically stand pat, improve from within, and see what happens. We're not getting much for Mancini rental, so let him finish out the season with the guys he has helped get to this spot, then let him walk at the end of the season. 

I would move Santander, ideally for a piece that can help us now. If we can get a starter like Snell in a salary dump that would be perfect. Then replace Santander with Stowers, bring up Westburg to help the infield. 

Call up Hall for the bullpen. Use Wells as a 1-2 inning opener and stretch out Akin a bit more to pick up his innings along with Hall. 

Maybe see if anyone would be interested in a replacement level starter for Yusniel Diaz.