2022 2nd Round Pick Comp B (#67): Jud Fabian - OF - (Jr) Florida University

[lovetoaster]

23 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

So against decent college pitching he was Rob Deer. Yikes.

I am still trying to figure out how a Rob Deer comp was thrown out on MLB Network as a positive for some kid tonight. Not sure who it was, but it wasn't one of our picks. I was baffled. 

[Jammer7]

I’ve seen him a lot for six years now. Excellent defender. The hit tool will be better as a pro. UF has had several very good prospects lose their way recently with the bat. Fabian enrolled early, so he’s just 21. Hard working competitive  kid.

The next pick will tell us a lot. Reserving my thoughts until then. 

[CharmCityHokie]

35 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

I’ve seen him a lot for six years now. Excellent defender. The hit tool will be better as a pro. UF has had several very good prospects lose their way recently with the bat. Fabian enrolled early, so he’s just 21. Hard working competitive  kid.

The next pick will tell us a lot. Reserving my thoughts until then. 

I'm just curious as to why you feel the hit tool will improve from college to pro ball? This is the pick I like the least because of the hitting stats and am interested to learn more about what you've seen that makes you believe he'll get better against tougher competition. (and definitely not challenging your view and opinion, I'm scouting stat lines and video clips and have never seen him play in person, so I'm just genuinely curious).

[ShoelesJoe]

3 hours ago, Jammer7 said:

I’ve seen him a lot for six years now. Excellent defender. The hit tool will be better as a pro. UF has had several very good prospects lose their way recently with the bat. Fabian enrolled early, so he’s just 21. Hard working competitive  kid.

So he's an OF version of Cadyn Grenier?

[Moose Milligan]

3 hours ago, Jammer7 said:

 

The next pick will tell us a lot. Reserving my thoughts until then. 

You mean the next college outfielder we take? 

[Can_of_corn]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

You mean the next college outfielder we take? 

They have to take a catcher at some point.

[Can_of_corn]

5 hours ago, Remember The Alomar said:

Totally. Not complaining. But also not going to pretend I knew anything about these kids (after Jackson) before reading their scouting reports as they were drafted. I'll take athletes over Hogoods and DJ Stewarts, for sure. 

So Josh Hart?

[Frobby]

6 hours ago, lovetoaster said:

I am still trying to figure out how a Rob Deer comp was thrown out on MLB Network as a positive for some kid tonight. Not sure who it was, but it wasn't one of our picks. I was baffled. 

Rob Deer was a 13.8 rWAR player.   Very few of these guys will have as good a career as Rob Deer.   

[Frobby]

Longenhagen likes Fabian a lot, had him at the 26th best prospect.  

“It's been somewhat trendy for a top prospect or two to skip the draft as a high school senior and early-enroll in college to reach college eligibility a year sooner, and that's what Fabian did in 2018. He had a good freshman season for a rookie in the SEC then went to the Cape and raked, which he continued to do during his COVID-shortened sophomore year. His junior year featured an exorbitant number of strikeouts, but also lots of home runs: Fabian had the second-most strikeouts in Division-I with 80 in 270 plate appearances and was eighth in homers. The strikeout issues needed to be viewed in the context of Fabian's age: this was a 20-year-old center fielder in the SEC hitting for huge power. Ultimately, there was a gap between what teams were willing to do to sign Fabian and what he thought he could get in 2022 as a junior, so he didn't sign and went back to school. He did quell his strikeout issues somewhat, with his K% dropping from 29% to 22%, though he still has a hole at the very top of the zone and tends to pull off of in-zone sliders. Fabian's power is still likely to play in games because he has great feel for the zone and lifts the ball consistently, and he has some room to strike out in excess because of his defense in center field. There's definitely bust risk associated with the strikeouts, but there's also clearly everyday ability.”

[DocJJ]

Can’t imagine how someone who hits .239 in the SEC will ever hit MLB pitching….?

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, DocJJ said:

Can’t imagine how someone who hits .239 in the SEC will ever hit MLB pitching….?

He was actually under .200 in conference games. 

[LTO's]

5 minutes ago, DocJJ said:

Can’t imagine how someone who hits .239 in the SEC will ever hit MLB pitching….?

If there was anyone in the SEC that had his power and defensive ability with a better hit tool, that guy would've been a top 5ish pick. 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, LTO's said:

If there was anyone in the SEC that had his power and defensive ability with a better hit tool, that guy would've been a top 5ish pick. 

I get that but if he can't hit, at all, the other tools are irrelevant.

It's the one tool that absolutely needs to be present at some level.

[Tony-OH]

8 hours ago, lovetoaster said:

I am still trying to figure out how a Rob Deer comp was thrown out on MLB Network as a positive for some kid tonight. Not sure who it was, but it wasn't one of our picks. I was baffled. 

I don't think those are positive comps. While Deer did have a decent career, and some of these kids would be happy to have his career, Deer is usually thrown out there for low average, high strikeout players.

[MurphDogg]

I didn't love the idea of Fabian for $3M last year at #41, but have no problem paying him slot at #67.

His floor is probably something like Ryan McKenna and he is more likely to reach the Majors than most picks in this range.