Rutschman vs Witt

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, sevastras said:

Like Manny?

Yes and had they been more aggressive earlier, he would have been signed.  He wanted to and they reports were they were 10M (total dollars) apart.

[interloper]

15 hours ago, Filmstudy said:

 

It sure looks like the Orioles drafted the right guy.

 

Wayyyyy too early to be declaring this. Lol. You present a nice analysis, and then totally sink it with this comment. Do I think eventually it will be correct. Yes. I think they did draft the right guy. But you can't have this tiny sample of rookie season numbers and even come close to confidently declaring Adley is the better draft pick. 

[yark14]

Both players are the right fit for what their respective organizations needed.

[Filmstudy]

9 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

I'd say it looks pretty close and it is way too early to tell which has the better career. I am certainly happy with Adley's production and everything he has brought to our team.

How are you calculating .515 vs .497? Does it factor in that Adley has accumulated his WAR in approximately half the AB's as Witt? Adjusting for AB's, bbref has Adley significantly better than Witt, Fangraphs less so. 

Using WAA.  Adley is .515 in his playing time and Witt is .497.  From BBRef.com

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

4 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Yes and had they been more aggressive earlier, he would have been signed.  He wanted to and they reports were they were 10M (total dollars) apart.

And even if the Orioles still traded Manny, he would have fetched a better trade package already being under contract for several of his free agency seasons.

Just a complete misfire from a team that bid against itself and signed Chris Davis to a seven year contract. Manny’s early injuries definitely scared off Angelos without taking into account his health post surgery. 

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

And even if the Orioles still traded Manny, he would have fetched a better trade package already being under contract for several of his free agency seasons.

Just a complete misfire from a team that bid against itself and signed Chris Davis to a seven year contract. Manny’s early injuries definitely scared off Angelos without taking into account his health post surgery. 

Horrendous in every way possible.  The whole way they handled Manny was horrible.

[Remember The Alomar]

5 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

And even if the Orioles still traded Manny, he would have fetched a better trade package already being under contract for several of his free agency seasons.

Just a complete misfire from a team that bid against itself and signed Chris Davis to a seven year contract. Manny’s early injuries definitely scared off Angelos without taking into account his health post surgery. 

This has been litigated millions of times, but that combination of moves (plus others) effectively added half a decade to any hope of the Orioles fielding a competitive team. And has potentially resulted in a long-term reluctance for the franchise to ever seriously commit to spending again (I guess more of a wait and see there, though.) 

Just such mind-bogglingly bad decision making--at the time and, especially, with hindsight. 

[LA2]

11 hours ago, Remember The Alomar said:

This has been litigated millions of times, but that combination of moves (plus others) effectively added half a decade to any hope of the Orioles fielding a competitive team. And has potentially resulted in a long-term reluctance for the franchise to ever seriously commit to spending again (I guess more of a wait and see there, though.) 

Just such mind-bogglingly bad decision making--at the time and, especially, with hindsight. 

Yes, no matter how many times litigated (clever word choice there, Alomar!) the outright stupidity of the entire series of bad moves (wrong players signed, wrong players wasted in bad late trades) never ceases to astound me.

[Frobby]

22 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Positional advantage goes to catcher.   Do you disregard all of the sites that give more importance to the catching position?

I don’t think that the bigger positional adjustment given for catchers necessarily means that it is the more important defensive position.   It means it’s harder to find a good hitter at catcher than it is at shortstop.   And the reason is, playing catcher is more physically and mentally exhausting.

You can certainly argue that catcher is also more important defensively.   I just don’t think positional adjustment is proof of that.

 

[turtlebowl]

14 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Horrendous in every way possible.  The whole way they handled Manny was horrible.

Totally agree they screwed the Manny situation about as bad as you could of.  The Rays would of traded Manny the year prior than the O's did and probably gotten 2 future all-stars for him.  

Saying that I am really happy we didn't sign Manny to a big money long term contract.  Last night was a perfect reminder when you saw him barely jogging to first after he hit a ball sharply in the hole.  I would rather slightly overpay Trey M to be the leader to the younger players coming up than to have watched Manny set the example of how not to play the game the right way.  

He is a talented guy and you can win with him but he can't be "the guy" on your roster that players are going to look up to.  

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, turtlebowl said:

Totally agree they screwed the Manny situation about as bad as you could of.  The Rays would of traded Manny the year prior than the O's did and probably gotten 2 future all-stars for him.  

Saying that I am really happy we didn't sign Manny to a big money long term contract.  Last night was a perfect reminder when you saw him barely jogging to first after he hit a ball sharply in the hole.  I would rather slightly overpay Trey M to be the leader to the younger players coming up than to have watched Manny set the example of how not to play the game the right way.  

He is a talented guy and you can win with him but he can't be "the guy" on your roster that players are going to look up to.  

I was good with signing him or trading him.  His lack of maturity gave me pause.  That said, jogging down to first base in an AS is a non starter for me.  If he was busting his ass and hurt a hammy, that would have been terrible.

[LTO's]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t think that the bigger positional adjustment given for catchers necessarily means that it is the more important defensive position. 

 

It definitely is, at least for the foreseeable future. Catchers handle literally every pitch of the game. It doesn't make any sense to consider any other position to be more important. You can argue about how much more important it is relative to the other positions but this is basically unanimously agreed upon. 

[RZNJ]

21 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t think that the bigger positional adjustment given for catchers necessarily means that it is the more important defensive position.   It means it’s harder to find a good hitter at catcher than it is at shortstop.   And the reason is, playing catcher is more physically and mentally exhausting.

You can certainly argue that catcher is also more important defensively.   I just don’t think positional adjustment is proof of that.

 

Right.   It's more valuable to have a good hitting catcher than a similar hitting SS because the catcher is harder to find.  Agreed?

[Sports Guy]

13 minutes ago, LTO's said:

It definitely is, at least for the foreseeable future. Catchers handle literally every pitch of the game. It doesn't make any sense to consider any other position to be more important. You can argue about how much more important it is relative to the other positions but this is basically unanimously agreed upon. 

They handle every pitch and that makes it more important?  Do you know how many people in the world can sit back there and catch the ball?  You think that makes it the most important position?

 

People asked me about the data and all the years of it..well guess what, the running game used to be more important.  Catchers used to always call their own games.  Now with analytics and stuff like that, they get told what to call, stolen bases aren’t as prevelant, etc…

Saying they handle every pitch therefore it’s really important is like saying first base is the most important IF position because most outs are made at first and they handle the ball all the time.

There is way more to it than that.

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, LTO's said:

It definitely is, at least for the foreseeable future. Catchers handle literally every pitch of the game. It doesn't make any sense to consider any other position to be more important. You can argue about how much more important it is relative to the other positions but this is basically unanimously agreed upon. 

My statement was just talking about the statistical meaning of the positional adjustment.   

As to which position is more important, I think there are lots of ways to look at it.  Certainly the catcher handles the ball more than any other position.   How much of that is absolutely routine though?   Catching a pitch is pretty easy about 80% of the time (wild-assed estimate).   You’ve got a number of pitches that are tough to catch, which only matters if runners are on base.   You’ve got pitches where framing comes into play, but that’s a fraction of all pitches, and the consequence of a good or bad frame doesn’t necessarily determine the outcome of the at bat (though it can).   I’d say that making a routine play at SS is significantly more difficult than catching most pitches.   Making a difficult play at SS is probably more challenging than anything a catcher does.   But, even with all the qualifiers I mentioned, the catcher does get the most opportunity to influence the game with his defensive skill, I’d say.  So in the end, I agree with your conclusion, but it’s debatable I think.