Henderson, Hall, Westburg, and Stowers - Potential unintended consequence of the new service time rules?

[Hallas]

7 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I’m not waiting until mid to late April of next year to call him up.  
 

Again, winning has to start to matter, not this service time bs.  We have to start valuing the reason you are supposed to play the game.

Baseball teams don’t exist so they can game service time and say that they lay claim to the #1 farm system.  They exist to win and make money.  Go win and make money.  

 

Maybe I'm nuts, but I really, really think that potentially an extra full season (e.g. 4-5 WAR) of cost control vastly outweighs the 0.5-1 win that he migth provide in 2 weeks.

 

Using Fangraphs' estimation for present value (WAR * 0.92^(number of years)) Henderson's extra cost controlled season is worth at least 2.5 wins.  He's unlikely to produce more than 1 win in the month of April of 2023.  And if he performs really well and ends up getting the extra arb year anyway, I'm ok with gambling there.

[emmett16]

4 minutes ago, Hallas said:

 

Maybe I'm nuts, but I really, really think that potentially an extra full season (e.g. 4-5 WAR) of cost control vastly outweighs the 0.5-1 win that he migth provide in 2 weeks.

 

Using Fangraphs' estimation for present value (WAR * 0.92^(number of years)) Henderson's extra cost controlled season is worth at least 2.5 wins.  He's unlikely to produce more than 1 win in the month of April of 2023.  And if he performs really well and ends up getting the extra arb year anyway, I'm ok with gambling there.

Flags fly forever.  

[Hallas]

3 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

Flags fly forever.  

Yeah I'm not making that bet in April.

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

Flags fly forever.  

I don’t get the idea that people are ok with not doing your best to win.  It’s just nonsensical to me.  The Orioles fan has become so accustomed to losing that they don’t place value on winning.  

I just can’t get behind the mindset.  They would rather have the best farm system and say we get to keep our player 1 more year, a year we may not even want, vs winning.  
 

And don’t tell me that a few weeks doesn’t matter..of course it matters.  Every game means the same.  

 

Edited August 11, 2022 by Sports Guy

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t get the idea that people are ok with not doing your best to win.  It’s just nonsensical to me.  The Orioles fan has become so accustomed to losing that they don’t place value on winning.  

I just can’t get behind the mindset.  They would rather have the farm system and say we get to keep our player 1 more year, a year we may not even want, vs winning.  
 

And don’t tell me that a few weeks doesn’t matter..of course it matters.  Every game means the same.  

 

Owner's profits are paramount.

All real fans know that.

[emmett16]

14 minutes ago, Hallas said:

Yeah I'm not making that bet in April.

The fantastic thing about a pipeline is that there will be players right behind the AAAers & AAers that could be just as impactful.  It’s time to win now.  Not to mention these guys probably won’t be around for Arb 3, it’ll be another teams problem at that point.  

[Hallas]

24 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t get the idea that people are ok with not doing your best to win.  It’s just nonsensical to me.  The Orioles fan has become so accustomed to losing that they don’t place value on winning.  

I just can’t get behind the mindset.  They would rather have the best farm system and say we get to keep our player 1 more year, a year we may not even want, vs winning.  
 

And don’t tell me that a few weeks doesn’t matter..of course it matters.  Every game means the same.  

 

I think that Henderson should come up for the remainder of the season, because he can retain rookie eligibility and we can shuffle the IF around to replace Odor with Henderson in the fold.  I think that service time games for next season has a pretty big benefit for the O's.

I disagree that the games mean the same either way.  We know the results of this season's games, and that increases the leverage for the rest of this season's games.  There's a lot that can happen between April and August, unrelated to Henderson or any other prospect with whom we'd want to play service time games, that can positively or negatively affect our 2023 playoff chances.

Edited August 11, 2022 by Hallas

[geschinger]

1 hour ago, Hallas said:

 

Maybe I'm nuts, but I really, really think that potentially an extra full season (e.g. 4-5 WAR) of cost control vastly outweighs the 0.5-1 win that he migth provide in 2 weeks.

 

Using Fangraphs' estimation for present value (WAR * 0.92^(number of years)) Henderson's extra cost controlled season is worth at least 2.5 wins.  He's unlikely to produce more than 1 win in the month of April of 2023.  And if he performs really well and ends up getting the extra arb year anyway, I'm ok with gambling there.

It's a much complicated analysis now with the new incentives and disincentives for high performing rookies.  The value of a potential pick and the cost of forgoing that 0.5-1 win and still not getting an extra year have to be factored into decision making.

Edited August 11, 2022 by geschinger

[Sports Guy]

23 minutes ago, geschinger said:

It's a much complicated analysis now with the new incentives and disincentives for high performing rookies.  The value of a potential pick and the cost of forgoing that 0.5-1 win and still not getting an extra year have to be factored into decision making.

Sure but decisions that outweigh winning in seasons in which winning is the #1 priority are wrong decisions imo.

[geschinger]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Sure but decisions that outweigh winning in seasons in which winning is the #1 priority are wrong decisions imo.

This isn't a season where winning is the #1 priority.   A team like the Mariners made winning in 2022 their #1 priority and I 100% think the Orioles would have been wrong to have done similar.

Bringing up GH is obviously a less consequential move than trading 3 top 5 orgnizational prospects to make a run at it in 2022.   But as discussed in previous posts I think it's a crapshoot whether or not GH helps or hurt the playoff chances in 2022.  If we get Machado first 25-30 games production - helpful.  If we get JRod/BWitt first 25-30 games production - hurtful to playoff chances. 

We both agree it should be done but we have to agree to disagree on when.  From previous posts you think it's worth forgoing any potential compensation for 12 additional days (11 now).  I don't.  Considering it's coin flip whether or not he helps or hurts the playoff chances I would keep the possibility of earning comepensation alive.  

[Frobby]

14 hours ago, cnmilton said:

I haven't seen it discussed (but I may have missed it), but it appears that a good bit of this year's Os success is based around the chemistry that everyone on the team seems to have. Bringing up unknown variables in young players like Henderson, Stowers, and Westburg could change that (due to changing the playing time for the people currently on this team) or personalities not gelling cohesively.  Chemistry is not something that analytics will show 

I’ve made this point myself, but here’s a counterpoint.  Brett Phillips isn’t exactly a long-standing member of our team. Replacing him doesn’t really affect our chemistry.  We were 16-9 in July without him.  And the chemistry has somehow survived the loss of Mancini and Lopez, to the tune of 8-1 since the Mancini trade.  

[wildcard]

5 hours ago, Frobby said:

I’ve made this point myself, but here’s a counterpoint.  Brett Phillips isn’t exactly a long-standing member of our team. Replacing him doesn’t really affect our chemistry.  We were 16-9 in July without him.  And the chemistry has somehow survived the loss of Mancini and Lopez, to the tune of 8-1 since the Mancini trade.  

Replacing Phillips has nothing to do with chemistry.  It has to do with him being a bench player and Elias wants Stowers and Gunnar to be regulars.  

[Sports Guy]

7 hours ago, geschinger said:

This isn't a season where winning is the #1 priority.   A team like the Mariners made winning in 2022 their #1 priority and I 100% think the Orioles would have been wrong to have done similar.

Bringing up GH is obviously a less consequential move than trading 3 top 5 orgnizational prospects to make a run at it in 2022.   But as discussed in previous posts I think it's a crapshoot whether or not GH helps or hurt the playoff chances in 2022.  If we get Machado first 25-30 games production - helpful.  If we get JRod/BWitt first 25-30 games production - hurtful to playoff chances. 

We both agree it should be done but we have to agree to disagree on when.  From previous posts you think it's worth forgoing any potential compensation for 12 additional days (11 now).  I don't.  Considering it's coin flip whether or not he helps or hurts the playoff chances I would keep the possibility of earning comepensation alive.  

Well, I was also talking about 2023 and waiting a few weeks to bring him up.  2023 is a year where winning should be the top priority.

And btw, it doesn’t matter that you entered 2022 with it not being your top priority, the bottom line is that it should be your top priority the rest of this season.

[seak05]

Many rookies come in and struggle in the short term offensively. If you are trying to win now, you probably don’t want a host of rookies in your starting lineup, and a reliever who isn’t consistent and struggles to throw strikes. Plus many of the regulars are performing well (or are defensively superior) You’re probably not often going to run a lineup of stowers/Adley/gunnar/vavra out there, since you also have Mullins, Hays, Santander, Urias, Mateo, and Mountcastle.

I think the best argument for bringing them up this year, isn’t actually winning this year, but having them get acclimated, in order to win next year.

But of the four of them, the only one who you’re that worried about a 7th year of control with is Gunnar. Not every decision is about “gaming the system” 

[Roll Tide]

10 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t get the idea that people are ok with not doing your best to win.  It’s just nonsensical to me.  The Orioles fan has become so accustomed to losing that they don’t place value on winning.  

I just can’t get behind the mindset.  They would rather have the best farm system and say we get to keep our player 1 more year, a year we may not even want, vs winning.  
 

And don’t tell me that a few weeks doesn’t matter..of course it matters.  Every game means the same.  

 

I don’t think it’s the fans Rob. It’s the organizations approach to the plan. They obviously aren’t going to be swayed by fans. I’m not advocating for how it’s being done. Just stating the facts for the guys with unrealistic optimism that Stowers and Hall could be called up at any moment. 
 

Elias chose when he traded for Phillips and his salary. In Halls case , we don’t need a 5 inning starter as the guys are all doing pretty well. When Elias said that there are guys at AAA that can help he’s talking about the RP shuttle and Harvey. An injury could force his had but that’s what it would take. It makes no sense to bring those guys up to be spectators. McKenna and Nevin are used so sparingly it’s hard to figure out what you have. It’s easy to say that Nevin is a AAAA player but he’s only gotten 200 ABs and most players need longer to adjust. McKenna has looked good but won’t play when Hays is healthy. I refuse to believe that Vavra’s defense is worse than what we saw from Odor the other night. He has limited range but is good at turning the double play.

Edited August 11, 2022 by Roll Tide