Jordan Lyles 2023?

[emmett16]

Pass.  I want two studs to complement or cache of young arms.  Not the year for an innings eater.  

[jamalshw]

2 minutes ago, AnythingO's said:

I would do this as well and then sign someone better as a FA too. My reason is Means isn't likely to be up to ML before ASB or so, so Lyles for half year, trade for whatever at deadline, replaced by Means in second half

Or just as likely, a couple guys will be on the IL by the time Means is back. Lyles is a serviceable back of the rotation option. Perhaps Hall is still struggling with command. If he ultimately doesn't pan out as a starter or someone else (Bradish for instance) falters, having extra starters is great. We got lucky this year to have guys like Watkins, Kremer, Voth, etc perform solidly in the rotation. We're not likely to pick up a 30-year old with a career 5.70 ERA off waivers and have him pitch to a 3.19 ERA again next year. Nor are we likely to out of desperation plug in a 29 year old who was coming off a 8.07 ERA in a 54.2 inning rookie campaign the year before and have him throw 15 starts with a ERA+ of 100. 

I agree that we should bring back Lyles (or another veteran arm like him) in addition to a TOR starter. The Orioles have used 10 starters this year and 31 pitchers (if you include the likes of Chris Owings in mop up relief) this year. We need way more than 5 starters and someone "reliable" like Lyles would be nice to have as one of those 10 getting some starts in a season. 

[ScGO's]

If Lyles finishes strong, he might get a 2 or 3 year deal from someone else. I can't see Elias matching that at all.

Next year we will go into ST with GrayRod, Bradish, Kremer, Watkins, Hall, Wells, Zimmerman, Voth, Vallimont, and maybe even Alexander Wells competing for the Rotation depending on who gets DFA'd between now and the end of the offseason.  Means will be back mid season too, but I would go after one pitcher, probably through a trade over FA, and then let the others fight it out for the final 4.  My guess is GrayRod, Wells, Bradish, and Kremer to go along with whoever they acquire. I think Hall goes to the Bullpen, hopefully in a Hader or Andrew Miller type role.  When Means comes back, he can replace the weakest link in the rotation, or if there isn't a weak link, we can look to trade.

[Frobby]

If I were sure we could sign two starters who were substantially better than Lyles to reasonable contracts, I’d decline the Lyles option.  Problem is, we have to fish or cut bait on the option before we know who else we will be able to sign.  So that leaves me on the fence about what to do.  Honestly I’d like to see how Lyles finishes the year and study the available FA pitchers a bit more before answering the question.   

[wildcard]

8 hours ago, jamalshw said:

Or just as likely, a couple guys will be on the IL by the time Means is back. Lyles is a serviceable back of the rotation option. Perhaps Hall is still struggling with command. If he ultimately doesn't pan out as a starter or someone else (Bradish for instance) falters, having extra starters is great. We got lucky this year to have guys like Watkins, Kremer, Voth, etc perform solidly in the rotation. We're not likely to pick up a 30-year old with a career 5.70 ERA off waivers and have him pitch to a 3.19 ERA again next year. Nor are we likely to out of desperation plug in a 29 year old who was coming off a 8.07 ERA in a 54.2 inning rookie campaign the year before and have him throw 15 starts with a ERA+ of 100. 

I agree that we should bring back Lyles (or another veteran arm like him) in addition to a TOR starter. The Orioles have used 10 starters this year and 31 pitchers (if you include the likes of Chris Owings in mop up relief) this year. We need way more than 5 starters and someone "reliable" like Lyles would be nice to have as one of those 10 getting some starts in a season. 

I think you are missing the point on Voth and Watkins.  The O's analytics identified Voth based on his stuff not his record.  And Holt coached him on using his plus pitches and not his below average ones.

Holt taught Watkins two pitches over the last two seasons to make him a different pitcher than what he was before the O's got him.    

Elias trades reliever Lopez for starter Povich based on the analytics.   It looks like the O's uses analytics to find pitchers that other teams don't value as much but that Holt can coach into valuable parts of the pitching staff.  And yes, I think they will continue to do this in the future.

Edited August 11, 2022 by wildcard

[wildcard]

7 hours ago, ScGO's said:

If Lyles finishes strong, he might get a 2 or 3 year deal from someone else. I can't see Elias matching that at all.

Next year we will go into ST with GrayRod, Bradish, Kremer, Watkins, Hall, Wells, Zimmerman, Voth, Vallimont, and maybe even Alexander Wells competing for the Rotation depending on who gets DFA'd between now and the end of the offseason.  Means will be back mid season too, but I would go after one pitcher, probably through a trade over FA, and then let the others fight it out for the final 4.  My guess is GrayRod, Wells, Bradish, and Kremer to go along with whoever they acquire. I think Hall goes to the Bullpen, hopefully in a Hader or Andrew Miller type role.  When Means comes back, he can replace the weakest link in the rotation, or if there isn't a weak link, we can look to trade.

I think Zimmermann and Vallimont are DFA'd after the season.  They could pass through waivers and stay in the system.  Alex Wells will depend on what he does the rest of the season.

[Sports Guy]

8 hours ago, Frobby said:

If I were sure we could sign two starters who were substantially better than Lyles to reasonable contracts, I’d decline the Lyles option.  Problem is, we have to fish or cut bait on the option before we know who else we will be able to sign.  So that leaves me on the fence about what to do.  Honestly I’d like to see how Lyles finishes the year and study the available FA pitchers a bit more before answering the question.   

Do you think teams will be clamoring to sign Lyles this offseason?

You take the “risk” of letting the mediocre pitcher go and then come back to him if needs be.

[Frobby]

15 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Do you think teams will be clamoring to sign Lyles this offseason?

You take the “risk” of letting the mediocre pitcher go and then come back to him if needs be.

Clamoring?  No.  But he might have done enough to get a 2-year contract somewhere and I don’t think we want him for more than one in any event.  As I said, I need to study the FA pitcher market a bit more.  But I probably won’t do that until the season ends, in the days before the team has to make it’s decision on Lyles.  

[LookinUp]

56 minutes ago, Frobby said:

As I said, I need to study the FA pitcher market a bit more.

This is where I stand too.

I think one thing most of us agree on is our position players are pretty much set for next year. You can always argue we could trade for an upgrade here or there, but it isn't a necessity at this point.

That means that most of the focus of the offseason needs to be on improving our starting pitching. Doing so should further strengthen our bullpen. Where does Lyles fit? I have no idea. Is there value in a guy who can give innings like Lyles does as the #4/5 starter, yes. Is it worth the money? That depends on what else we do.

So the Lyles discussion has to happen in the context of other things. That's just not a discussion that I have enough information on yet.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

This is where I stand too.

I think one thing most of us agree on is our position players are pretty much set for next year. You can always argue we could trade for an upgrade here or there, but it isn't a necessity at this point.

That means that most of the focus of the offseason needs to be on improving our starting pitching. Doing so should further strengthen our bullpen. Where does Lyles fit? I have no idea. Is there value in a guy who can give innings like Lyles does as the #4/5 starter, yes. Is it worth the money? That depends on what else we do.

So the Lyles discussion has to happen in the context of other things. That's just not a discussion that I have enough information on yet.

You need to strengthen the pen too.  
 

Now, that may come in the form of guys like Kremer and Bradish going to the pen but it needs to be better(better relative to realistic 2023 predictions based off of current stats) and have some different arms out there. 

Edited August 11, 2022 by Sports Guy

[LookinUp]

11 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

You need to strengthen the pen too.  
 

Now, that may come in the form of guys like Kremer and Bradish going to the pen but it needs to be better(better relative to realistic 2023 predictions based off of current stats) and have some different arms out there. 

Yeah, I expect the pen to be strengthened from our own guys. The biggest team need is starters.

As you and others have pointed out, if we can get even one upgrade, and we get to add Rodriguez, the entire staff gets so much better. Get two legit upgrades plus Rodriguez, hoping on Hall and waiting on Means, and you're onto something.

Payroll flexibility is there. Depth of prospects/ML players for trades is there. Just do it.

[baltfan]

Lyles has been integral to this teams success this year.  His innings and ability to stay healthy have allowed the bullpen to stay reasonably well-rested. He has gone 5+ innings in 19 of his 23 starts.  In 2 of the others, he went 4+ innings.  One time he didn't get out of the 3rd inning.  There is value for a bullpen to this consistency.  Guys getting blown-up in the first can really kill a bullpen.  If he goes, the Orioles need a similar style guy (innings and health) next year.  It's clear that Sig has a way to value this in his model and they prioritized signing Lyles early. 

[Just Regular]

Lyles got 2 years from Texas off his good part year in Milwaukee, but he's older now.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/12/rangers-to-sign-jordan-lyles.html

I believe the flattery option was 98% to hold Lyles' take home from $7mm to $6mm on the off chance he pitched somewhere between his 70th percentile and 95th percentile and could be of use to someone in a Scott Feldman type role.

I doubt we will get 2 SP better than him, and believe Elias will try and finesse that tasteful 1-2 of declining the option but telling the player, "Hey, we're still interested - you're just more like a 7 than a 10".     Maybe don't say the last part.

[MurphDogg]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Do you think teams will be clamoring to sign Lyles this offseason?

You take the “risk” of letting the mediocre pitcher go and then come back to him if needs be.

I think Lyles will get more than $10M guaranteed if the Orioles decline his option. Probably not $10M a year, but 2/$16M seems about right.

[Sports Guy]

Just now, MurphDogg said:

I think Lyles will get more than $10M guaranteed if the Orioles decline his option. Probably not $10M a year, but 2/$16M seems about right.

Maybe.  That will be partially determined but how he ends the year.  Lyles has been a product of the wall in many ways.  I’m sure teams will take that into account.

Now, with that said, eating innings and taking the ball every 5th day is important.  Whether or not those are good innings remains to be seen.