Eovaldi vs Bassitt

[MarCakes21]

2 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

I think there are ceilings with the FAs.  Guys to target in trades have a potential next gear.  
 

We have an abundance of IFs and I think the prudent thing to do is take advantage of that resource.  Especially since we are dealing with confederate money in FA negotiations.  

There's sides to that though:

- you can trade guys like Ortiz/Westburg/Mayo/Hall, who are near ready but will need a package.  

- you can wait a year and these borderline top 100 guys could be top 50 guys and you get more value

- you can trade from the MLB choke point which is Urias/Mateo.

I prefer the second option on the list given the state of the MLB team.

[eddie83]

Syndergaard is the kind of a guy who if he was sitting there on a one year deal may interest me. No way would I make a move to go after him.  

[emmett16]

1 minute ago, MarCakes21 said:

There's sides to that though:

- you can trade guys like Ortiz/Westburg/Mayo/Hall, who are near ready but will need a package.  

- you can wait a year and these borderline top 100 guys could be top 50 guys and you get more value

- you can trade from the MLB choke point which is Urias/Mateo.

I prefer the second option on the list given the state of the MLB team.

I think we are going to run out of places to play IFs.

1. Mateo

2. Urias

3. Gunnar 

4. Vavra

^^^*already on MLB^^^

5. Westburg

6. Ortiz

7. Norby

^^^already in AAA^^^

8. Mayo

9. Hernaiz

10. Prieto 

^^^already in AA^^^
11. Bencosme

12. Young

13. Holiday 

 

what happens when everyone moves up this year?

 

[MarCakes21]

1 minute ago, emmett16 said:

I think we are going to run out of places to play IFs.

1. Mateo

2. Urias

3. Gunnar 

4. Vavra

^^^*already on MLB^^^

5. Westburg

6. Ortiz

7. Norby

^^^already in AAA^^^

8. Mayo

9. Hernaiz

10. Prieto 

^^^already in AA^^^
11. Bencosme

12. Young

13. Holiday 

 

what happens when everyone moves up this year?

 

That's my point.  They don't.  They gain one more year of value by improving or repeating levels.  Is it wrong to keep Westburg/Norby/Ortiz at AAA?

[emmett16]

3 minutes ago, MarCakes21 said:

That's my point.  They don't.  They gain one more year of value by improving or repeating levels.  Is it wrong to keep Westburg/Norby/Ortiz at AAA?

Yes.  They are assets to help your MLB team this year either from their production or their trade value.  
 

Goal for each of those players listed is to move up at least one level.  There will be another draft this year in July

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, emmett16 said:

I think we are going to run out of places to play IFs.

1. Mateo

2. Urias

3. Gunnar 

4. Vavra

^^^*already on MLB^^^

5. Westburg

6. Ortiz

7. Norby

^^^already in AAA^^^

8. Mayo

9. Hernaiz

10. Prieto 

^^^already in AA^^^
11. Bencosme

12. Young

13. Holiday 

 

what happens when everyone moves up this year?

 

This year won’t be a problem.  They’ll make room for at least one.  None of them have a full year of AAA but it’s not hard to envision Westburg, Ortiz, and Norby deserving a spot on the roster at some point this year.  It’s possible Mayo and Hernaiz could be in the same position as those guys were this year by the end of 2023.  Then you have to trade or make positional changes.    The optimal trade value would, for instance, would be Westburg having a strong rookie season and then trading him to clear way for Norby.  I’m not advocating that but Westburgs value would be much greater IF that were to happen than it is now.

[emmett16]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

This year won’t be a problem.  They’ll make room for at least one.  None of them have a full year of AAA but it’s not hard to envision Westburg, Ortiz, and Norby deserving a spot on the roster at some point this year.  It’s possible Mayo and Hernaiz could be in the same position as those guys were this year by the end of 2023.  Then you have to trade or make positional changes.    The optimal trade value would, for instance, would be Westburg having a strong rookie season and then trading him to clear way for Norby.  I’m not advocating that but Westburgs value would be much greater IF that were to happen than it is now.

The Curveball is Holiday who will likely move quick, be a priority play, and become a disruptor as he moves upward past the eleven (I just choked) middle infielders ahead of him right now.  

[emmett16]

Sorry to detail thread.  Back to Bassitt & Eovaldi  

[Sydnor]

1 hour ago, MarCakes21 said:

I lean towards both.  I think of both as solid no 2s when pitching well.  And both have the QO attached, so doesn't that decrease the cost of the second pick?  Ie, if you're going to lose one pick, might as well lose two?

If the Orioles signed two players that received a qualifying offer, the penalty would result in the team losing its third- and fourth-highest picks (their Competitive Balance Round B selection after the second round and their third round pick).

[MarCakes21]

5 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

Sorry to detail thread.  Back to Bassitt & Eovaldi  

It’s relevant. Are these guys more valuable as a pair, or should you trade. I advocate sign both (or Rodon). Need two pitchers, and move Wells/Voth to supplement the pen

[RZNJ]

Pretty good chance the 2025 infield has Gunnar at 3B and Holliday at SS. That means Westburg, Norby, Ortiz, and Hernaiz are playing 2B here, another position here, or somewhere else.  Saying this makes it seem impossible for Coby Mayos future as an Oriole to be at 3B.   Not even worry about Bencosme, Carter Young, etc. until they make noise at AA.

[emmett16]

4 minutes ago, MarCakes21 said:

It’s relevant. Are these guys more valuable as a pair, or should you trade. I advocate sign both (or Rodon). Need two pitchers, and move Wells/Voth to supplement the pen

Someway somehow they need to bring in 2 SPs.  If they both came via FA I wouldn’t be mad.  I just want the best possible talent and we have a few avenues to explore to bring in that talent.   Wells & Voth both should be in the pen IMO. 

[RZNJ]

They are only signing one FA pitcher.  They might trade for a second but no way they get two FA pitchers.   If there’s no lost pick for Bassitt that might swing things in his favor.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

41 minutes ago, MarCakes21 said:

  Is Lopez or some other target significantly better than just signing one of those guys above?

3 Year Average ERA+

Lopez: 119

Eovaldi: 120

Bassitt: 128

Taillon: 100 

Eovaldi has been a tick better than Lopez but Lopez has a better health record and adding him will not help our divisional rival by giving them an extra draft pick. Lopez would require trade capital but be much cheaper in terms of payroll allocation.

Bassitt has been the best of the bunch but is also the oldest and will require the highest salary in addition to a compensation draft pick for the Mets.

Taillon is only a marginal improvement over what Lyles gave us last year and should not even be in the discussion if we are actually trying to meaningfully improve.

I would love to add both Bassitt and Lopez, but I guess I would choose Bassitt if I can only have one since he only costs money and a compensation pick (unless he requires more than 3 years, then I'd prefer Lopez).

[wildcard]

This starter search is beginning to have a Ubaldo Jimenez feel to it.   A starter has a good season and the O's sign him for 3 or 4 years and wishes they hadn't.