Connolly: Don’t see the Os going beyond 2-3 years

[RZNJ]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

You guys didn’t want them to go for it in 2022 because “it was a year too early”. That proved to be wrong.

This year, if they don’t make real upgrades and go for it, what happens if the team regresses and wins 75 games? Will they “go for it” next offseason or will they need another season of evaluation?

Yeah, we didn't go for it like Texas did last year.  

[Aristotelian]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

You guys didn’t want them to go for it in 2022 because “it was a year too early”. That proved to be wrong.

This year, if they don’t make real upgrades and go for it, what happens if the team regresses and wins 75 games? Will they “go for it” next offseason or will they need another season of evaluation?

Not sure who you are talking to. I wanted them to sign Robbie Ray. Now I'm glad they didn't. 

[Aristotelian]

14 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

To add to this, every single prospect in the system is stoked about the talent that surrounds them and is really buying into what the organization is putting together.   I think Adley and Gunnar, to this point are stoked about playing with Stowers, Vavra, Westburg, Ortiz, Cowser, Norby, etc.  These guys talk to each other, play video games with each other.   What could be better than playing and winning ML baseball games with your buddies.  Of course, winning is the most fun but we are headed in the right direction and this offseason is far from over.  

This is absolutely true. I sat with one of our prospects' parents at a game this year and his dad was absolutely gushing about the organization and the vibe of this group. He specifically mentioned video games, lol. 

[Frobby]

I wish I could read the entire Elias quote, as the Ruiz tweet cuts off words on both sides of the quote.  But honestly, it does sound a little sad-sack.  I agree with Elias’ core point that the organization should not prioritize winning a division title in 2023 over being competitive year after year, given the long odds of succeeding at the former and since making the playoffs this year would still give us a shot at the World Series.  But I’m getting a little tired of hearing how “daunting” it is to play in the AL East, and I certainly think the team can and should make needle-moving acquisitions without jeopardizing the long term future of the team.   

But honestly, I don’t care about dissecting this quote.  I care about what moves the Orioles make and how the team plays going forward.  I don’t feel like the O’s are going to stand pat the rest of the offseason and I don’t feel that the lack of completed moves over a 4-day period in early December means that nothing significant will happen this offseason.   So I will continue to watch what happens and not pass judgment on this offseason until it’s over.
 

 

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Yeah, we didn't go for it like Texas did last year.  

Texas was stupid and they don’t have the foundation we do.

[Bemorewins]

9 minutes ago, geschinger said:

Some other teams seemed to be on their way to trying it but didn't stick with it or failed in it's implementation.

Ownership could still step in and sabotage it but to this point one cannot argue that the Orioles haven't been extrodinarily successful with the tank and farm system rebuild.  Elias has arguably learned from some of the mistakes and been even more successful in stocking the farm system in his second chance of implementing the approach. 

I just don't understand why if he's been so successful in phase one that anyone would want to blow that up and change course instead of wanting to give him a shot to implement phase two.  Usually when a plan seems to be working it's wise to stick with that plan instead of abandoning it.

Never said nor do I want them to blow anything up. But as you mentioned with the phase phrase, the goals are now different. The goal is no longer tearing down and establishing a healthy foundation. We've already done that. Now it's time to start building upon what you have to put a championship frame in place.

We're not going to get any trophies, banners, or titles for "the best farm system". At some point we have to be able to turn all the assets we have into success in terms of wins and losses. And then the postseason. Adding free agents does not have to preclude us from keeping the org healthy and stocked with young talent. But it can supplement the talent we have to increase our chances for post season success. An 80 million dollar payroll will not kill the Orioles this season coming or cause them to have to readjust what they have been doing from a development standpoint.

[Aristotelian]

10 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

 

As far as Gunnar and Adley, I ask from a rational standpoint why would they be happy with what's happening? Are you telling me that they are like no please don't add any really good players because they might have bad contracts after 2026? Or is it more reasonable for them to think, I wonder why everyone else is adding to their team and we are standing pat?

Hey I don't know them personally and never have talked to them so maybe you are right? It just doesn't make a lot of rational sense for competitors to be worried more about how much money the org saves so the owner can make rather than how they can win more games by having better players arounf them.

No, I think they would likely welcome a FA with open arms, but I also think they are buying into the organization and trust the process as long as it seems headed in a positive direction, which it 100% is. 

[geschinger]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

You guys didn’t want them to go for it in 2022 because “it was a year too early”. That proved to be wrong.

This year, if they don’t make real upgrades and go for it, what happens if the team regresses and wins 75 games? Will they “go for it” next offseason or will they need another season of evaluation?

If the team regresses because Grayson, Hall, Adley, Gunnar, Cowser, Ortiz, Stowers, Westburg et al either regress or are not ready I'll be disappointed but I'd prefer that over signing a bunch of players to take ABs and innings away from them to maximize W/L in 2023 but make it more difficult to field the best possible team in 2026 and beyond

I'm not disappointed we didn't sign some of the guys that interested posters last year Eduardo Rodriguez or Kris Bryant come to mind.  What I'd prefer to see them do this year is give a bigger 1 or 2 year deal to a pitcher who isn't getting the type of deal he expected.  I'd like to see us trade for a Pablo Lopez.  Those kind of moves where you improve for 2023 without taking away flexibility in 2026 and beyond.  I just don't see how to spin overpaying in FA as being a better option than that.

 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

7 minutes ago, geschinger said:

I just don't understand why if he's been so successful in phase one that anyone would want to blow that up

This is mostly a strawman. The team has a bottom 2 payroll and could easily add a few mid-tier free agents that would improve their near-term chances of competing without hurting the long-term plan at all. 

 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, geschinger said:

If the team regresses because Grayson, Hall, Adley, Gunnar, Cowser, Ortiz, Stowers, Westburg et al either regress or are not ready I'll be disappointed but I'd prefer that over signing a bunch of players to take ABs and innings away from them to maximize W/L in 2023 but make it more difficult to field the best possible team in 2026 and beyond

I'm not disappointed we didn't sign some of the guys that interested posters last year Eduardo Rodriguez or Kris Bryant come to mind.  What I'd prefer to see them do this year is give a bigger 1 or 2 year deal to a pitcher who isn't getting the type of deal he expected.  I'd like to see us trade for a Pablo Lopez.  Those kind of moves where you improve for 2023 without taking away flexibility in 2026 and beyond.  I just don't see how to spin overpaying in FA as being a better option than that.

 

They need to improve the team..a lot. How they do it can be debated. I don’t want them to sign stupid deals either.  However, I don’t want them to do nothing and act like they can’t be really good right now.

[Bemorewins]

7 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

We were only 3 back of Tampa. 6 wins from the prospects and one-year FA's would get us there. 

How much do you follow Tampa?

You do know that they did that without having their best player for most of the season Wander Rodriguez. And next year they may get back Baz who had a higher profile at one point than McClanahan. Plus they added Eflin and will have a full season of Glasnow.

[Bemorewins]

5 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

No, I think they would likely welcome a FA with open arms, but I also think they are buying into the organization and trust the process as long as it seems headed in a positive direction, which it 100% is. 

We're going to have to agree to disagree which is fine.

IMO we were headed in a wonderful direction until this last week's nightmare. Now, I'm nowhere near as confident.

I'm sure you looked around this site today. Have you checked out Orioles Twitter or Facebook? Not too many fans are signing the orgs praises like you after this free agency fiasco. You have found a way to block out the orgs ugly history or being a disaster for much of the last 30 years and I commend you for that!

However, to much of the fanbase I believe they were cautiously optimistic that we had turned a corner. But with this debacle, I'm not sure how many will still share that point of view.

Personally before free agency started I was ready to purchase a season ticket package for me and my family. Now, I'm not sure if I will be attending many if any games. I just can't support the idea of a billionaire on a budget. I'm fundamentally opposed to the idea of being invested in the rich getting richer and deciding to pocket profits instead of adding to the product. In no other field/industry would paying customers accept this.

[geschinger]

Just now, Bemorewins said:

Never said nor do I want them to blow anything up. But as you mentioned with the phase phrase, the goals are now different. The goal is no longer tearing down and establishing a healthy foundation. We've already done that. Now it's time to start building upon what you have to put a championship frame in place.

We're not going to get any trophies, banners, or titles for "the best farm system". At some point we have to be able to turn all the assets we have into success in terms of wins and losses. And then the postseason. Adding free agents does not have to preclude us from keeping the org healthy and stocked with young talent. But it can supplement the talent we have to increase our chances for post season success. An 80 million dollar payroll will not kill the Orioles this season coming or cause them to have to readjust what they have been doing from a development standpoint.

You are saying you want them to go big in FA which is blowing up the plan for long term success.  Saddling the team with long term contracts where the back end is almost certainly going to be wasted money is inconsistent with and would be abandoning that approach.

What you are saying is you don't believe that phase two of the approach that worked so well for the reigning world champions cannot work in Baltimore.  What evidence is there that it will not work and that we should abandon that approach?  

[Sydnor]

4 hours ago, RZNJ said:

 He might be right but it begs the question, what is he basing this theory on?

Is he saying we didn’t offer more than 3 years to any FA or just that he doesn’t see us offering more than 3 years to the remaining FA.  I think when a reporter puts something like this out there he owes it to his readers how much is based on inside knowledge and how much is speculation on his part.   It sounds like he knows something but he may not know anything.

I didn’t see this posted, but I didn’t read the entire thread. He said this in response to someone who asked, in essence, what you are asking…

 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, geschinger said:

You are saying you want them to go big in FA which is blowing up the plan for long term success.  Saddling the team with long term contracts where the back end is almost certainly going to be wasted money is inconsistent with and would be abandoning that approach.

What you are saying is you don't believe that phase two of the approach that worked so well for the reigning world champions cannot work in Baltimore.  What evidence is there that it will not work and that we should abandon that approach?  

I mean, this isn’t really true. If the Os signed Correa tomorrow and the last 3 years was 100M down the drain, they can still easily contend with that issue.

It may make things harder but it’s not like their whole plan blows up in their faces over one bad deal.