Brett Phillips could not touch major league pitching last year, but raked at Norfolk - why might this matter??

[deward]

2 hours ago, Sanity Check said:

The ghost of Henry Urrutia still haunts me, similar to Jim Fuller from the 70's and Jeffrey Hammonds from the 90's and others.  Many up here couldn't wait for Urrutia to get called up and dominate at the major league level, only to find out he couldn't even pull the ball with any consistency.  We have very few guarantees from AAA to the major league level.

But, to my main point - Brett Phillips was a train wreck for all of 2022 at the major league level, then he goes to Norfolk and dominates.  In fact, he raked, and out-OPS'ed everyone else on the team (ok, Connor Norby was higher, but small sample size with only 39 at bats).  Even when Nevin was called up last year, he was hitting very well at Norfolk.....even though his final stats don't look all that great, he struggled mightily after being sent back down and that pulled down his impressive, pre-callup numbers.  But my poiont here is, Nevin was hot when he got called up, and it didn't translate at the major league level.

I see a lot of assumptions in the threads about how certain players' bats will "play" at the major league level.  Am I the only one worried that some of the bats that we think will play at the major league level actually won't?  As much as I'd love to see the next Bobby Grich and Don Baylor rise from farm, I feel like some of us might be getting way ahead of ourselves.....and possibly setting ourselves up for disappointment, all over again.

Am I just too pessimistic, on my own island here, or does anyone else feel like we could be setting ourselves up for more Urrutia moments??  (And I sure do hope that I'm wrong.....but the fact that Phillips and Nevin did pretty well in AAA and suffered miserably in the Majors has me really tentative about how anyone really translates without really knowing).

Anyone want to talk me off the ledge?  Do I just need to put my orange colored glasses on a assume they will all turn out like Adley and Gunnar???

 

I don't get lumping Urrutia and Hammonds together. I don't recall anyone having very high expectations for Urrutia, and while Hammonds may not have met the expectations for his draft status, he had a few very good major league seasons. However, your general point that not all prospects will pan out is well taken. It would be wildly over-optimistic to assume that every top prospect will ultimately become a significant major-league contributor. Someone out of the current group will likely fail. Any team ushering in a wave of prospects to the big leagues needs to be prepared to adapt the plan based on what they are seeing.

[Sanity Check]

20 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Sounds like your life story.

Three drinks in now? 

[deward]

1 hour ago, owknows said:

 

Ya know 'em when ya see 'em

Henderson? check

Rutchman? check

Westburg? check

Kjerstad? check

Cowser? Probably

Mayo? Probably

The rest of 'em?  We'll see.

 

At least one of those six guys is going to fail to meet expectations. Quite possibly more. It'd be great if all six turn into all-stars, but I wouldn't want to bet on it.

[Sanity Check]

13 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Its a tough game.   Frazier might be washed up, but his career 12.4 WAR is an achievement its probably more likely that zero of Westburg, Norby and Ortiz will match than any of them.

A few 2-WAR seasons at the league minimum is still like a $50mm asset.

This possibility is not very encouraging, hence, my worry about how well they develop beyond AAA.

[Orioles4Life21]

My mind went immediately to the legend of Lew Ford lmao. Granted he was 35 when he dominated at Norfolk…

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

25 minutes ago, Orioles4Life21 said:

My mind went immediately to the legend of Lew Ford lmao. Granted he was 35 when he dominated at Norfolk…

Jake Fox from 2011 Spring Training says hello.

10 years ago, an unknown reigned at camp

Quote

Yet, somehow, in March 2011. For one month. For one Spring Training. Jacob Quirin Fox was on top of the baseball world.

In 27 games, he hit .297/.325/.797 with 10 homers and seven doubles. That averages out to 60 dingers over a 162-game season. He was hitting bombs off Max Scherzer. The Baltimore Sun was giving him the NBA Jam treatment.

 

Edited December 19, 2022 by OsFanSinceThe80s

[OriolesMagic83]

David Newhan looked like a sure fire Hall of Famer for about a month and then when back to being David Newhan.

[owknows]

5 hours ago, now said:

Not to nitpick, but the OP was about translating from minors to majors. So I see only two to check there, so far. And Henderson, though impressive, only had 132 plate appearances. 

Phillips and Urrutia aside, not even every phenom pans out. 

Yes.

My post was predictive.

[now]

5 minutes ago, owknows said:

Yes.

My post was predictive.

In that case, fair enough!

[Jammer7]

Let’s take a look at three “no doubt” hitters of recent times.

Spencer Torkelson hit .203/.285/.319/.604 last year in 360 at bats, and he was a sure thing. A top 3 prospect in baseball, #1 pick in the draft in 2020. There are doubts about his glove, but never any doubts he will hit. And he still should. He is a major reason the Tigers underachieved in 2022. 

Jarred Kelenic has hit .168/.251/.338/.589 in 500 at bats with Seattle. Another top 5 prospect in baseball. Everyone said he’d hit, and he probably still can. Seattle made the playoffs despite not getting much from him.

Keston Hiura, a guy with a 60 hit tool, had a great showing in 2019 in 314 at bats, .303/.368.570/.938. Then followed that up with a .707 OPS in 2020 and a .557 in 2021. He isn’t the same prospect status as the other two cited, but he was the #9 pick in 2017. He is not a silver slugger type at this point, but he did have a .765 OPS (wRC+ of 115) in 2022. A 41% K rate is awful, but has great EV numbers.

The point is, prospects, even the most talented sure things, they start slow. They slump. They even fail. It’s a tried and true baseball sure thing. When they hit like Adley and Gunnar, be grateful, because they all will not be like that. For as much grief as Elias has gotten for not promoting prospects when some think he should, his philosophy of making sure they are as ready as they can be seems to be working, so far. Perhaps he is hesitant to promote Westburg, or play Stowers last year much more because he just felt they are not or were not ready to succeed just yet. 

Edited December 19, 2022 by Jammer7

[HakunaSakata]

2 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

Let’s take a look at three “no doubt” hitters of recent times.

Spencer Torkelson hit .203/.285/.319/.604 last year in 360 at bats, and he was a sure thing. A top 3 prospect in baseball, #1 pick in the draft in 2020. There are doubts about his glove, but never any doubts he will hit. And he still should. He is a major reason the Tigers underachieved in 2022. 

Jarred Kelenic has hit .168/.251/.338/.589 in 500 at bats with Seattle. Another top 5 prospect in baseball. Everyone said he’d hit, and he probably will. Seattle made the playoffs despite not getting much from him.

Keston Hiura, a guy with a 60 hit tool, had a great showing in 2019 in 314 at bats, .303/.368.570/.938. Then followed that up with a .707 OPS in 2020 and a .557 in 2021. He isn’t the same prospect status as the other two cited, but he was the #9 pick in 2017. He is not a silver slugger type at this point, but he did have a .765 OPS (wRC+ of 115) in 2022. A 41% K rate is awful, but has great EV numbers.

The point is, prospects, even the most talented sure things, they start slow. They slump. They even fail. It’s a tried and true baseball sure thing. When they hit like Adley and Gunnar, be grateful, because they all will not be like that. For as much grief as Elias has gotten for not promoting prospects when some think he should, his philosophy of making sure they are as ready as they can be seems to be working, so far. Perhaps he is hesitant to promote Westburg, or play Stowers last year much more because he just felt they are not or were not ready to succeed just yet. 

I know it's not really the point of the thread, but my biggest takeaway from your comment is the part that I bolded. With that in mind perhaps we shouldn't so quickly dismiss the idea of trading a prospect or two for a major league ready piece if it fills a void? 

Of the prospects you mentioned, I think Hiura is toast and Kelenic is on the verge of being toast. Mostly because they haven't shown the ability to fix the holes in their games. With Hiura it's the strikeouts and with Kelenic it's his inability to hit anything but a fastball. I still think there's hope for Torkelson. 

[Sanity Check]

20 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

I know it's not really the point of the thread, but my biggest takeaway from your comment is the part that I bolded. With that in mind perhaps we shouldn't so quickly dismiss the idea of trading a prospect or two for a major league ready piece if it fills a void? 

Of the prospects you mentioned, I think Hiura is toast and Kelenic is on the verge of being toast. Mostly because they haven't shown the ability to fix the holes in their games. With Hiura it's the strikeouts and with Kelenic it's his inability to hit anything but a fastball. I still think there's hope for Torkelson. 

And here's the kicker....even if we are willing to trade our prospects, while Adley. Gunnar, GRod and maybe Hall are likely untouchable in Elias's mind (speculating here, not saying it's a fact), we may not have a lot of flexibility in determining who we'd have to include in a trade for a high level pitching prospect.  And what I mean is, as much as we'd love to say, "take Urias, take Norby or take Hays", if another team has what we want, I think they will be picking their favorites from our system, rather than getting getting the guys we want them to take.  I think that is lost on a lot of folks here.  Unless there is a high demand for our specific guys, we either give them away or we keep them.  I imagine guys like Westburg, Ortiz and maybe Cowser would be drawing the most interest from our AAA team, not the lesser guys that we might WANT them to take.

[btdart20]

Maybe Phillips (and others) knows how to take professional at bats?  Meaning he can set up developing pitchers to win more ABs compared to MiLB prospects.  

Raw talent has an adjustment period to catch up to experience.  Every hitter struggles against top pitching.  That’s the nature of the game.  Sometimes the raw talent can adjust.  Sometimes they can’t.  That’s why the approach matters (along with the talent).

[Frobby]

I think the point in the OP, that minor league success doesn’t always translate to major league success, is worthwhile to remember.   It’s the job of our front office to evaluate and project who will be successful at the major league level.  They won’t always be correct, but that’s part of the job, and it informs decisions on who to keep and who to trade away, and who needs more development time in the minors to work on certain things even though their basic numbers look good.   

So when I see the team acquiring players to fill positions that could be covered by players who’ve had success in AAA (and may have had limited time in the majors, too), it makes me think that the front office isn’t that confident about some of our prospects even though the numbers look good.  
 

[Tony-OH]

17 hours ago, yark14 said:

I was thinking about this same thing while hiking today.  It's anything but an exact science of who translates well from AAA to the majors.  Some with incredible AAA stats flame out, while others actually improve their stats when jumping to the majors. 

I think there are several factors, but the biggest are above the shoulders.  In this modern age with analytics and advanced scouting reports, the pitcher knows more about the hitter than his own mother; and vice versa.  

IMO, the ones that dominate high minors but flame out in the majors fall into one (or more) of these categories:

•  Unwilling to put in the work to learn advanced scouting reports
•  Unable to grasp or apply those advanced details (got by on skill alone)
•  Lifestyle #1 - the big leagues have a lot more distractions.  Life is much simpler when you're 20 and traveling on a bus from Norfolk to Durham.
• Lifestyle #2 - adapting to the changes your body goes through as your youth body changes into adulthood and you actually have to work to stay in playing shape.  Miguel Sano is example A.

I would say the number one reason some good AAA players flame out in the majors is they are good enough against AAA level players, but good enough for the majors.

There is no bigger jump then AAA to the majors. The consistency of talent at the major league level is what stands it a part. 

I watch a lot of AAA while scouting players and while they are all good ball players to get to that level, and some are obvious future major leaguers, you can typically tell the guys that are missing stuff. 

Saying that, they now have metrics where they can see how good a hitter does against major league caliber breaking pitches and velocity. I wish I had that minor league statcast data because I really do think I could give a very accurate scouting assessment on who will do well after studying the numbers for a bit.

Ultimately though, the only real way to know if a player can play in the major leagues is to give him a legitimate chance.