John Angelos/Mike Elias 1 hour interview 105.7 today

[HakunaSakata]

12 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I understand your overall point, but I don’t see any players value dropping out of Westburg, Cowser, Ortiz, and Norby, unless there is an injury. They all had some success in AAA last year, and they will be repeating that level. Hall, Kjerstad, and Mayo, are all a bit more risky, but also a chance to boom as well. 
 

I’m not saying we hold onto all of them.  I’m saying that we should wait till the deadline. I like our chances with the values going up. 

With our prospects, yes. With guys like Santander, Ortiz, and Mateo specifically, I'd say their value is much more likely to go down than up. Hope I'm wrong, but I think the odd's are probably against it. 

[LTO's]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Saying we need ELITE pitching for Santander is one of the most over the top, absurd statement I have seen on here.  It’s laughable.  
 

I never said trades were easy.  But if you are going to be that dumb and completely overrated players, I agree they are almost impossible.

Yes, we shouldn't be trading above average established MLB regulars for some of the mid-tier options you have floated in previous threads. It makes no sense. Obviously, even with Mullins, you would have to include a good prospect or two to get the elite pitching but you don't just trade good players because their FA years are approaching. We don't need to operate that way. There's value to having good players on your team for a few years even if you know you won't extend them. You are aware of this right? If they had traded him in 2020 when you and others were saying they should have, they would have sold low AND missed out on 30+ 120 wRC+ season for the big league team. You and a few others are under the delusion that no matter what, the prospects are going to be better than the big leaguers you have out there and thus you HAVE to trade them. 

In any event, you never even answered the question. Who are the big league players on this roster that are going to fetch you good SP? By saying "They probably should have done it already" you are admitting you don't understand how this works. If you want to say everyone is dumb and unrealistic then make some suggestions. 

[LTO's]

3 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

With our prospects, yes. With guys like Santander, Ortiz, and Mateo specifically, I'd say their value is much more likely to go down than up. Hope I'm wrong, but I think the odd's are probably against it. 

Why are you so sure Satander's value is so likely to go down? Everyone said this in 2020 and then he hit the ball harder and walked way more in 2022 and did it over a FULL season. If anything, his stats and the new shift rules point to him having a better year. He also will be DHing a lot more. 

Mateo, sure. But you have to find someone who wants him. If someone is not giving you fair market value for him then just keep him. He's the best base stealer and defensive infielder in your entire org. Injuries and prospect flameouts will help sort things out anyway. 

[btdart20]

3 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

With our prospects, yes. With guys like Santander, Ortiz, and Mateo specifically, I'd say their value is much more likely to go down than up. Hope I'm wrong, but I think the odd's are probably against it. 

Agree on Santander and Mateo.  Their risk factor is pretty high.  Similar to what we faced with Mullins heading into 2022.  And other teams know that too.  Which is why I've been saying we have to be willing to take a haircut on these types of players.  Mateo/Urias are replaceable (with a few shots on goal toward mitigating prospect risk).  Santander is too, but the offense will be missed more for him.

Ortiz - This sheep says "meh".  He's a prospect on an uptrend and a ton of positive chatter about work ethic.  And the floor is supported by top shelf defense.  Which I'd say is better than a prospect on a downtrend.  But I'm in the group that stupidly overvalues our prospects. 

 

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, LTO's said:

Yes, we shouldn't be trading above average established MLB regulars for some of the mid-tier options you have floated in previous threads. It makes no sense. Obviously, even with Mullins, you would have to include a good prospect or two to get the elite pitching but you don't just trade good players because their FA years are approaching. We don't need to operate that way. There's value to having good players on your team for a few years even if you know you won't extend them. You are aware of this right? If they had traded him in 2020 when you and others were saying they should have, they would have sold low AND missed out on 30+ 120 wRC+ season for the big league team. You and a few others are under the delusion that no matter what, the prospects are going to be better than the big leaguers you have out there and thus you HAVE to trade them. 

In any event, you never even answered the question. Who are the big league players on this roster that are going to fetch you good SP? By saying "They probably should have done it already" you are admitting you don't understand how this works. If you want to say everyone is dumb and unrealistic then make some suggestions. 

I have answered your question and have said it many times this offseason. Santander, Hays, Mateo, Urias, Mountcastle and Mullins all should have been shopped. Their returns will vary for sure and some of them, you should be ok with prospects.

But you could have unquestionably gotten ML pitching for them, especially Mullins and probably Santander.

Even if it was something like Urias for Carrasco(as an example).  The trades are there.

You don’t seem to understand value. It’s above your head. A guy like Santander has real value right now but that value could go down the tubes quickly.  To think you have to get Burnes for him is moronic. 

If you can a 2-3 WAR Santander for a 2-3 WAR pitcher, you do it. Your team didn’t get worse there and a 2-3 WAR pitcher isn’t some elite level guy. A Pablo Lopez type guy for Santander would be perfectly fine.

The Orioles have chosen not to draft pitching (which I agree with). They have chosen not to spend stupidly in FA (which I agree with). They have chosen not to spend mid level FA money (agree on some, not on others)

But if you want to win, you do need pitching and we don’t have much of it unless Hall and GRod are ready to be studs right now and Kremer and especially Bradish are as good as the second half last year.  But all of those aren’t likely.

So, you have to get impact pitching somehow and through trades is really the only way to do it for this organization.

And if no one wants the MiL talent for it(which I find laughable but teams are dumb so whatever), then you absolutely need to trade your ML talent to get it. 
 

There is almost zero doubt that the Marlins would have taken Mullins over Arraez. Not saying I would have dealt Mullins for that deal but we could have likely gotten Cabrera+ for Mullins and that’s something we should have been all over.

[Frobby]

39 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Of course. He’s probably THE guy that trading was more of a must than anyone. A player who, before 2022, had issues with availability and getting on base, who is now set to make 20ishM the next few years and you have in house replacements for him.

His value will never be higher than it is right now and it could significantly drop if he goes back to being injury prone. 

Santander is set to earn 20ish mm?  I don’t think so.   Put it this way, even if he repeats 2022 the next two years, I doubt anyone pays him that in free agency.  

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Santander is set to earn 20ish mm?  I don’t think so.   Put it this way, even if he repeats 2022 the next two years, I doubt anyone pays him that in free agency.  

He’s getting 7.5M this year. If he happens to stay healthy and repeats 2022, he will get 10-13M in arb next year.

At worst, he’s getting 14-16M.

Edited January 23, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He’s getting 7.5M this year. If he happens to stay healthy and repeats 2022, he will get 10-13M in arb next year.

At worst, he’s getting 14-16M.

That, I’d believe.  I hope it happens, because it will mean he stayed healthy and reasonably productive.  

[LTO's]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Even if it was something like Urias for Carrasco(as an example).  The trades are there.

First of all, again, you have NO idea what trades are there. There has been some smoke around Mateo having value but we have heard nothing about Urias. He's as valuable, if not moreso, than Carrasco and way cheaper and younger. That trade would be terrible and a clear example of forcing it. 

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

You don’t seem to understand value. It’s above your head. A guy like Santander has real value right now but that value could go down the tubes quickly.  To think you have to get Burnes for him is moronic. 

If you can a 2-3 WAR Santander for a 2-3 WAR pitcher, you do it. Your team didn’t get worse there and a 2-3 WAR pitcher isn’t some elite level guy. A Pablo Lopez type guy for Santander would be perfectly fine.

I'll go back and read through the Santander threads from a few years ago when he was in trade rumors and everyone (including myself probably) was saying his value would drop quickly. He just had a year in which he hit the ball harder and walked way more than he ever has and it was over a full season. He also crushed LH pitching this year which increases his value as a switch hitter.  His value is now higher than it has ever been. So again, when everyone is so sure a certain player's value is going to drop, that doesn't mean it is. Santander, Cowser and one of the INFs for Burnes should be the target. Lopez is OK but you are implicitly recognizing that would be a lateral move. This allows Milwaukee to remain competitive while doing their normal song and dance with their pricy in house FAs and the Orioles to get a true ace to make moves in the East. 

15 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

There is almost zero doubt that the Marlins would have taken Mullins over Arraez. Not saying I would have dealt Mullins for that deal but we could have likely gotten Cabrera+ for Mullins and that’s something we should have been all over.

Why is there zero doubt here? It has been said like a million times that the Marlins were prioritizing hitting over everything. So reality would seem to be the exact opposite of what you are so sure of. Cabrera for Mullins right now is a gigantic risk. He doesn't have any sort of long track record of big league success, was very fortunate last year and walks everyone. Giving up a sure fire 4 WAR CF for that doesn't seem like the move the O's should be considering at this stage. And thankfully Elias agrees. 

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, LTO's said:

First of all, again, you have NO idea what trades are there. There has been some smoke around Mateo having value but we have heard nothing about Urias. He's as valuable, if not moreso, than Carrasco and way cheaper and younger. That trade would be terrible and a clear example of forcing it. 

I'll go back and read through the Santander threads from a few years ago when he was in trade rumors and everyone (including myself probably) was saying his value would drop quickly. He just had a year in which he hit the ball harder and walked way more than he ever has and it was over a full season. He also crushed LH pitching this year which increases his value as a switch hitter.  His value is now higher than it has ever been. So again, when everyone is so sure a certain player's value is going to drop, that doesn't mean it is. Santander, Cowser and one of the INFs for Burnes should be the target. Lopez is OK but you are implicitly recognizing that would be a lateral move. This allows Milwaukee to remain competitive while doing their normal song and dance with their pricy in house FAs and the Orioles to get a true ace to make moves in the East. 

Why is there zero doubt here? It has been said like a million times that the Marlins were prioritizing hitting over everything. So reality would seem to be the exact opposite of what you are so sure of. Cabrera for Mullins right now is a gigantic risk. He doesn't have any sort of long track record of big league success, was very fortunate last year and walks everyone. Giving up a sure fire 4 WAR CF for that doesn't seem like the move the O's should be considering at this stage. And thankfully Elias agrees. 

1) Carrasco is a larger need this year. He’s still good and can still be a MOR guy. Urias is a good player but he’s a luxury right now and having Carrasco in our situation is better for winning in 2023.

2) Your second point is laughable. Milwaukee isn’t trading Burnes to get a player back who is gone in 2 years, as one of the main pieces. And Santanders value did drop in 2021. He wasn’t worth much of anything after that season but it went up again this year because he stayed healthy, something he rarely does.

3) Miami has been priorizing a CFer for 2 years. Every single report said that and has said that. But they couldn’t get one, so they went with the next best thing in their mind and are now going to hope Jazz can do it.

First of all, I said Cabrera+.(that + sign means more than just him in case you weren’t aware). Secondly, Mullins wasn’t even a 4 WAR guy last year.  And lastly, we agree there is risk there but Cabrera (your analysis of him as is as laughable as the Santander/Elite pitching thing) has elite upside and TOR potential. He definitely has to throw more strikes but he’s very young and if this organization is good at developing pitching (and I bet we can find stuff where you say just that), I think they can “fix him” to throw more strikes and get that walk rate down from just over 4 to 3 or less and if that happens , he could be a stud starting pitcher.  You take that, along with whatever else you would get.

4) and yes, I will take the lateral move from Santander to another pitcher because the pitcher is more important. The WaR may be the same but having another arm that can throw innings is big when you have young pitchers who will only throw so many innings and when you want to protect your pen some.  We have the position guys to replace AS.

[LTO's]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Carrasco is a larger need this year. He’s still good and can still be a MOR guy. Urias is a good player but he’s a luxury right now and having Carrasco in our situation is better for winning in 2023.

For that production and cost you'd be way better off just paying Wacha.  

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Your second point is laughable. Milwaukee isn’t trading Burnes to get a player back who is gone in 2 years, as one of the main pieces. And Santanders value did drop in 2021. He wasn’t worth much of anything after that season but it went up again this year because he stayed healthy, something he rarely does.

Milwaukee will assuredly be looking for established big leaguers as well as prospects. They aren't going to tank. That package is a good starting point. A few top 100 prospects and a big leaguer is about all teams with aces with only year and a half or so left on their rookie contracts can expect nowadays. We have concrete proof of this so...not laughable. 

13 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

First of all, I said Cabrera+.(that + sign means more than just him in case you weren’t aware). Secondly, Mullins wasn’t even a 4 WAR guy last year.  And lastly, we agree there is risk there but Cabrera (your analysis of him as is as laughable as the Santander/Elite pitching thing) has elite upside and TOR potential. He definitely has to throw more strikes but he’s very young and if this organization is good at developing pitching (and I bet we can find stuff where you say just that), I think they can “fix him” to throw more strikes and get that walk rate down from just over 4 to 3 or less and if that happens , he could be a stud starting pitcher.  You take that, along with whatever else you would get.

How is my analysis laughable? He was fortunate last year. His BB rate is terrible and his xstats were mediocre. I just find it odd that you would single out guys like Bradish and Kremer as clear regression candidates when compared to Cabrera. There are projections that like Kremer more than Cabrera and some that have Bradish and him as around equal. We have our own Cabrera with better stuff who throws from the left side. Let's get someone with more of track record of success if we're going to be shipping out one of our best players. 

[HakunaSakata]

49 minutes ago, LTO's said:

Santander, Cowser and one of the INFs for Burnes should be the target.

On a message board where most folks overvalue "our" players this might take the take. Not. Even. Close. And to your rebuttal point, Milwaukee has made ZERO mention of shopping or trading Burnes and the only need they have is in the OF, and Santander isn't going to fill that hole. They already have a better or equal version of Santander at DH in Winker. And if they weren't comparable with O. Miller at 2B then thy wouldn't have traded K. Wong. 

Edited January 23, 2023 by HakunaSakata

[AnythingO's]

1 hour ago, HakunaSakata said:

Miami wants an impact bat and MLB ready assets in return for pitching. Santander (571 AB) is more productive than Soler (270 AB) and Garcia (357 AB) who cost MIA $12 M and $13.25 M each. One can be traded and MIA saves money, gets more production, and gets younger: Santander (28 yrs), Soler (30 yrs), Garcia (31 yrs). Urias is reigning GG at 3B and his 403 AB replaces Rojas SS ABs traded to LA. Urias has better bat than Wendle (658 OPS) and Berti (662 OPS), is 28 with 4 years of control vs 32 for the other two. Lopez is off the board but has already been replaced by Cueto. Any of the remaining 3 would stabilize the SP staff while we determine what we have in Grod, Hall, Kremer, Bradish, and Means with Johnson and Povich coming. Santander and Urias are sell high candidates: will AS stay healthy again? does Urias have a position going fwd with Gunner at 3B? Seems to make sense for both teams so what am I missing?

 

[HakunaSakata]

15 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

On a message board where most folks overvalue "our" players this might take the take. Not. Even. Close. And to your rebuttal point, Milwaukee has made ZERO mention of shopping or trading Burnes and the only need they have is in the OF, and Santander isn't going to fill that hole. They already have a better or equal version of Santander at DH in Winker. And if they weren't comparable with O. Miller at 2B then thy wouldn't have traded K. Wong. 

Forgive my typos (too late to edit). That last sentence should have read - And if they weren't "comfortable" with O. Miller at 2B then "they" wouldn't have traded K. Wong. 

[Sports Guy]

35 minutes ago, LTO's said:

For that production and cost you'd be way better off just paying Wacha.  

Milwaukee will assuredly be looking for established big leaguers as well as prospects. They aren't going to tank. That package is a good starting point. A few top 100 prospects and a big leaguer is about all teams with aces with only year and a half or so left on their rookie contracts can expect nowadays. We have concrete proof of this so...not laughable. 

How is my analysis laughable? He was fortunate last year. His BB rate is terrible and his xstats were mediocre. I just find it odd that you would single out guys like Bradish and Kremer as clear regression candidates when compared to Cabrera. There are projections that like Kremer more than Cabrera and some that have Bradish and him as around equal. We have our own Cabrera with better stuff who throws from the left side. Let's get someone with more of track record of success if we're going to be shipping out one of our best players. 

1) Yes they could want MLers..but younger, cheaper further away from free agency guys.

2) His stat cast numbers were very good. His BB rate was high but he’s just 24. If we had a guy like him in our system, you would laugh at the poor analysis you just had. His upside is tremendous. Misses a lot of bats, doesn’t give up hard hits, etc…yes his FIP was higher than his ERA but the HR rate would come down here (and likely will come down anyway) and the BB rate will likely get better.  It’s called projection and he has a lot what you want to look for.

If GRod and/or Hall put up his numbers in 2023, everyone here, including you, would be excited. 
 

You want to put the Os players on some pedestal and talk everyone else’s guys down. It’s pretty typical orange colored glass type stuff.