Are the Orioles a legitimate playoff contender (Going into Spring training)?

[interloper]

Let's put it this way.

They were contenders last year and the following was true:

Means missed basically the whole year.

Kremer and Wells had significant time on IL.

Adley wasn't there the whole year. 

Gunnar only had two months.

Mountcastle and Hays had iffy seasons. 

Mullins took a step back.

Odor and Chirinos played significant roles.

Bradish took his lumps as a rookie.

[NCRaven]

Voted Yes.  If Rodriguez and Hall perform up to their potential (question marks for sure) the rotation could seriously outperform projections.  With Rutschman and Henderson up for full season, the lineup could produce as well.  Lots of "ifs" but a lot of upside, too.

[BrendanPlutschak]

True PLAYOFF contenders? Absolutely yes

 

True division title contenders? Probably not but maybe

 

True world series contenders? Not yet as currently constructed, but could get aggressive at trade deadline if we're competing. 

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, interloper said:

Let's put it this way.

They were contenders last year and the following was true:

Means missed basically the whole year.

Kremer and Wells had significant time on IL.

Adley wasn't there the whole year. 

Gunnar only had two months.

Mountcastle and Hays had iffy seasons. 

Mullins took a step back.

Odor and Chirinos played significant roles.

Bradish took his lumps as a rookie.

They also had a lot go their way.  The position players had an extremely injury-free season.  It is unlikely that will occur again.  I do think the O’s are well-equipped to deal with injuries at most positions, however, as discussed in a recent thread.

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, BrendanPlutschak said:

True PLAYOFF contenders? Absolutely yes

 

True division title contenders? Probably not but maybe

 

True world series contenders? Not yet as currently constructed, but could get aggressive at trade deadline if we're competing. 

This might seem counterintuitive, but I actually think our WS odds are higher than our division odds.

I think we have a much better chance against the NYY in a 7 game series than a 162 game season.

[interloper]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

They also had a lot go their way.  The position players had an extremely injury-free season.  It is unlikely that will occur again.  I do think the O’s are well-equipped to deal with injuries at most positions, however, as discussed in a recent thread.

That's really the thing for me is they have so much more depth this year. 

[Owen21]

I think they are still a year away, but I still voted yes.

[yark14]

Yes.

Next question.

[sevastras]

I expect Gunnar and Adley to combine for at least 13 war.  If the pitching holds it together, I expect them to be competitive. 

[Spy Fox]

I think they have better than even odds of being seriously in the race in September, but less than even odds of actually coming away with one of the six playoff spots this year. 

Last year they won 83 games and finished 7th in the league. This year I'd predict they win a couple more games, still likely finish 7th in the league, but with a chance of getting a WC if another expected WC contender or two flame out. 

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, sevastras said:

I expect Gunnar and Adley to combine for at least 13 war. 

I’ll take the under.  That’s expecting an awful lot.   

I’m voting yes, but the real answer is, I don’t know.   I’m pretty sure we won’t be hopelessly out of it by midseason, like we were in 2018, 2019 and 2021.   Whether we get over the top or hang in as long as we did in 2022 depends on a lot of variables.   We are not a no-doubt contender, but we could be one if things go reasonably well.
 

[BrendanPlutschak]

9 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

I think they have better than even odds of being seriously in the race in September, but less than even odds of actually coming away with one of the six playoff spots this year. 

Last year they won 83 games and finished 7th in the league. This year I'd predict they win a couple more games, still likely finish 7th in the league, but with a chance of getting a WC if another expected WC contender or two flame out. 

I don't disagree with this take as currently constructed. I think the difference is last year we sold at the trade deadline. If we're in the same spot, within 5 games of a playoff spot, I think we could become MAJOR buyers at the deadline which should push us over the top if it's the right guy.

[Sports Guy]

I would put the Os, as of today, definitely behind NY, Tor, Tampa, Cle, Hou and Sea. 
 

I would put the Os in the group with Minn, Boston, Texas(if they can stay healthy) and the CWS as teams that have a chance with Minnesota being the team I have the most confidence within that group because of their division.

So I’m saying no.  I think they could be a playoff team but I don’t trust legit in season additions to be made and I don’t think they did enough this offseason to be part of that first group. That group is how I would define legit playoff contender.

All that said, the way this poll question is asked is different, imo, than the 2 questions you can choose.  They have a chance to be in it on Sept 1st but I think that’s different than asking if they are legit contenders as of right now.

 

Edited February 17, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Moose Milligan]

I think so. But they won’t be there by much. 

[btdart20]

Is there a 40% chance we'll still be in the playoff hunt in September?  Yes.  But I don't think there's a 40% we'll make the playoffs.

ALE - NYY/TOR... TB

ALC - CLE

ALW - HOU

I rank the next tier of playoff contenders as:  SEA, LAA, MN, O's and TEX.

Let's go!