Jackson Holliday 2023

[LookinUp]

32 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I want to know what has you so convinced that Holliday is a “special” 1:1. I am not saying he’s not, but I’m trying not to look at him with Orange-colored glasses. It’s not like he was a consensus 1:1. There were many posters and pundits who wanted to use the 1:1 pick on Druw Jones or someone else.  He played well in limited action last year, but it’s not like he posted a 1.000 OPS in low A.   It was .772, largely driven by walking a lot.  I think we’ve established that he has elite strike zone judgment, but we haven’t really established much else.  Fabian had a 1.322 OPS in low A, Beavers .999, Wagner .841.  So it’s not like he was outperforming the college guys drafted below him.  

Again, I’m not saying he won’t be a great player, or can’t move up the ladder fast.  
But for me, he still has to prove it, I’m not going to just assume it. 

I think the prospect list types really started hyping him this offseason. One person, I don't remember who, said it's not even close about who was the best prospect in the last draft. At the time a lot of us wanted Jones, some Johnson, etc. But Holliday is now the consensus highest rated guy.

Or at least that's the narrative. I'm with you. Let's get beyond SSS territory and see real production over time. We love what we've seen so far though.

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I think the prospect list types really started hyping him this offseason. One person, I don't remember who, said it's not even close about who was the best prospect in the last draft. At the time a lot of us wanted Jones, some Johnson, etc. But Holliday is now the consensus highest rated guy.

Or at least that's the narrative. I'm with you. Let's get beyond SSS territory and see real production over time. We love what we've seen so far though.

Yeah, no complaints.   My feeling is, there’s always a lot of hype with each year’s top prospects.  Some live up to it or exceed it, some do okay but are mildly disappointing considering the hype, some never amount to much.  I’m rooting for Holliday to fit the first category, but also trying not to put ridiculous expectations on the kid.  He’s not starting in AA this year or reaching the majors by the end of the year.  Not happening.  If he ends the year with a few weeks of AA, that would be great.   That’s what Gunnar did in 2021, and he was a year older than Holliday is now and had the benefit of having spent time at the alt site with a bunch of major leaguers and AAA level guys the year before that, which helped to push him along in 2021.   

[sportsfan8703]

57 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It wouldn’t surprise me if Holliday could come up and give the team a 625-650 OPS and very good defense but I don’t think that’s worth using up a service time season to get.

Now, starting in 2024?  That may be a different story. 
 

I don’t think his age needs to matter. How good you are is what matters.  And going to the minors out of HS is a good thing for maturity reasons, getting used to the life, etc…

I agree, but after June 1st the service issue would be the same as if he started 2024 OD on the MLB club. 
 

I’m not saying it should happen, but post June 1… it may be option. Instead of having Mateo batting 9th, you could have Holliday. It’s not that far out there. Especially if Holliday is having a Gunnar 22’ type season. 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I agree, but after June 1st the service issue would be the same as if he started 2024 OD on the MLB club. 
 

I’m not saying it should happen, but post June 1… it may be option. Instead of having Mateo batting 9th, you could have Holliday. It’s not that far out there. Especially if Holliday is having a Gunnar 22’ type season. 

But what are you gaining? Holliday isn’t likely to be your best SS option for 2023 and even if he is, the difference is minimal. 

[Frobby]

39 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

But what are you gaining? Holliday isn’t likely to be your best SS option for 2023 and even if he is, the difference is minimal. 

He obviously has an extremely high opinion of what Holliday may be able to do.  

I’m just going to take things as they come.  If Holliday is posting a .900 OPS at whatever level he starts at this year, I expect he’ll move up a level after 30-60 days.   If not, he may move a little slower.  The initial question is, does he start at Delmarva or Aberdeen?   Like I said, I think it’s 60/40 in favor of Delmarva, but Aberdeen won’t shock me.  Either way, his play will dictate how fast he moves up the system.  
 

[sportsfan8703]

40 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

But what are you gaining? Holliday isn’t likely to be your best SS option for 2023 and even if he is, the difference is minimal. 

We don’t know that for sure. A budding superstar like Holliday pushes us to a WC, and helps us in the WC series. Holliday at SS, Gunnar at 3B. My overall point is that it’s not crazy to think that Holliday isn’t the best option at SS or 2B post June 1. Look what a young Miguel Cabrera did for the Marlins during their surprise WS run. 
 

There’s a lot of season to play, but the Gunnar 22’ season should’ve showed us what immense talent can do. I know we have other options, but if we’re truly looking like a playoff team come June, then we should get our best talent out there. 

[seak05]

I think expecting Holliday to exceed Machado is silly. Even Manny had a full minor league season, plus a half season at double a (and his draft year season), and he put up a .749 ops. 

[Frobby]

[Frobby]

Photo courtesy of my bother-in-law today.  He also got him to autograph the bill of his cap.  

[Just Regular]

Ah, youth.    Its arbitrary end points that Wander Franco affiliates at 16, Jackson Holliday at 18, and GED enthusiast Bryce Harper at 17.     Can he crush full season minors at 19 like the legend of Wander from the alternate sites?     The Rays failed to optimize an opportunity, I feel, not entering him to the October 2020 tournament - Joey Wendle was 2-for-18 that World Series.

Hmmm....does Alek Manoah kind of look like Boagrius?     Club Management is definitely like Agamemnon.

 

[OriolesMagic83]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

Photo courtesy of my bother-in-law today.  He also got him to autograph the bill of his cap.  

Wait till Jackson hits puberty.  There will be no stopping him.

[IPlayGM]

1. To an earlier posters comment about ‘it depends what Mateo is doing’, no it doesn’t. Short of him playing 150 points above his career OPS, when the guys in the minors are ready, he will be replaced. Their talent exceeds his talent.

2. I think this Holliday to the majors talk would be somewhat more plausible if we didn’t have Westburg, Ortiz, Norby on the rosters.  Any one of them could come up and allow Gunnar to play short.

[Tony-OH]

On 2/26/2023 at 9:37 AM, Frobby said:

I wouldn’t put Frazier (.728 career OPS) in the same bucket as Mateo (.645).   And no, I wouldn’t bet on Holliday outhitting either one if he spent 2023 in the majors.  

Career OPS as your evidence? 

Seriously though, I think Holliday is going to be special but I think he may get put on the Gunnar schedule with a start at Delmarva to get him off to a good start before going to hitter's hell in the Sally League. 

 

[Frobby]

10 hours ago, IPlayGM said:

1. To an earlier posters comment about ‘it depends what Mateo is doing’, no it doesn’t. Short of him playing 150 points above his career OPS, when the guys in the minors are ready, he will be replaced. Their talent exceeds his talent.

Mateo was worth 3.5 rWAR, 2.8 fWAR last year.  That’s absolutely nothing to sneeze at.   It’s silly to just assume that Ortiz or Westburg could do better than that.  Maybe they could, but I wouldn’t bet on it.   

Also, I think you underestimate what a more modest offensive improvement from Mateo would do.   Roughly speaking, a 50 point OPS increase would translate to an extra 0.7 WAR.  So no, he doesn’t need to improve by 150 points to remain competitive with these guys.  
 

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Mateo was worth 3.5 rWAR, 2.8 fWAR last year.  That’s absolutely nothing to sneeze at.   It’s silly to just assume that Ortiz or Westburg could do better than that.  Maybe they could, but I wouldn’t bet on it.   

Also, I think you underestimate what a more modest offensive improvement from Mateo would do.   Roughly speaking, a 50 point OPS increase would translate to an extra 0.7 WAR.  So no, he doesn’t need to improve by 150 points to remain competitive with these guys.  
 

We also shouldn't assume that Mateo can do it again this season.