Corbin Carroll 8/111….

[OriolesMagic83]

47 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He can still get that contract

Just not likely from the DBacks.  He is more to get that contract from 2031's version of the Padres or Mets.

[Sports Guy]

Just now, OriolesMagic83 said:

Just not likely from the DBacks.  He is more to get that contract from 2031's version of the Padres or Mets.

Good. You may not want him at that point. 

[geschinger]

2 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

 Best case for Carroll if he doesn't sign this contract is that he goes into his free agent year looking for a 10 year/$350-400 mill deal that maybe the DBacks can't afford.  The DBacks likely just got him for the peak of his career w/o signing him to a much more costly extension.

 

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

He can still get that contract

This is why the deal makes a lot of sense AZ.  They believe he's going to develop into a great player.  They get him for 8 or 9 years including what is likely to be at least 80-100% of his peak years for $111m or $139m.  Without this deal the cost of getting what are most likely going to be his 2-3 years is one of those 10/300 type contracts almost none of which end up being good deals for the team.  If he is as expected, that is a home run to get those years and then let someone else give him a stupid contract.

I would love to see the Orioles sign Adley to an 8 year extension now even if it was without a discount to have his entire peak locked up whereas to get his best years will require what would almost certainly be a huge mistake - signing him to a market rate mega extension 4 or 5 years from now that takes him into his mid to late 30s.

[Sports Guy]

22 minutes ago, geschinger said:

 

This is why the deal makes a lot of sense AZ.  They believe he's going to develop into a great player.  They get him for 8 or 9 years including what is likely to be at least 80-100% of his peak years for $111m or $139m.  Without this deal the cost of getting what are most likely going to be his 2-3 years is one of those 10/300 type contracts almost none of which end up being good deals for the team.  If he is as expected, that is a home run to get those years and then let someone else give him a stupid contract.

I would love to see the Orioles sign Adley to an 8 year extension now even if it was without a discount to have his entire peak locked up whereas to get his best years will require what would almost certainly be a huge mistake - signing him to a market rate mega extension 4 or 5 years from now that takes him into his mid to late 30s.

The 9th year option is great.

The contract is fine but it’s not a bargain and you have committed $111M for 2 years.  It’s a lot and it’s why these deals are, imo, not slam dunks.

But I would still give them to certain guys.

[CaptDbog]

14 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

The 9th year option is great.

The contract is fine but it’s not a bargain and you have committed $111M for 2 years.  It’s a lot and it’s why these deals are, imo, not slam dunks.

But I would still give them to certain guys.

Curious. If you were the Orioles GM, what kind of contract would you offer Gunnar and Adley? 

[Sports Guy]

42 minutes ago, CaptDbog said:

Curious. If you were the Orioles GM, what kind of contract would you offer Gunnar and Adley? 

Gunnar basically the exact deal Carroll got. I have been saying a similar deal to this all offseason. May have to make it 115-120M for the Boras tax but Carroll sets the precedent there.
 

Gunnar won’t go longer but maybe Adley will. I would be tempted to go 9-10 years if you had to for him but I would rather that not guarantee the  9th year or 10th year.  Making them team Option years and/or buyouts would be the way I would go.

We have to remember that Adley is a year ahead of those guys in terms of service time as well, so his deal wouldbe more.

Adley will probably make about 40M the next 5 years if all things go well. And then he gets 25-30M a year in his FA years, ala Carroll. So, 8/120-130, 9th year team option at 30M.  Maybe if you include buyouts, you add in 5M to that total.  So, deal could be 125-135 guaranteed for 8 years or up to 10/190.
 

So, both get similar guaranteed deals. Adley should get more because of the extra year of FA but the Boras tax (pay extra to get deal done) closes the gap.

Both deals carry a tremendous amount of risk, especially since we are talking about a catcher in one of them. Still, I sign those deals and hope.

Edited March 14, 2023 by Sports Guy

[CaptDbog]

33 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Gunnar basically the exact deal Carroll got. I have been saying a similar deal to this all offseason. May have to make it 115-120M for the Boras tax but Carroll sets the precedent there.
 

Gunnar won’t go longer but maybe Adley will. I would be tempted to go 9-10 years if you had to for him but I would rather that not guarantee the  9th year or 10th year.  Making them team Option years and/or buyouts would be the way I would go.

We have to remember that Adley is a year ahead of those guys in terms of service time as well, so his deal wouldbe more.

Adley will probably make about 40M the next 5 years if all things go well. And then he gets 25-30M a year in his FA years, ala Carroll. So, 8/120-130, 9th year team option at 30M.  Maybe if you include buyouts, you add in 5M to that total.  So, deal could be 125-135 guaranteed for 8 years or up to 10/190.
 

So, both get similar guaranteed deals. Adley should get more because of the extra year of FA but the Boras tax (pay extra to get deal done) closes the gap.

Both deals carry a tremendous amount of risk, especially since we are talking about a catcher in one of them. Still, I sign those deals and hope.

I think those deals are very possible to do.  Lots of Risk but having top talent signed long term is a nice reward.  If I had to pick, I would want to sign Adley long term. Leadership skills, defensive value, and high offense potential.  Adley's OPS+ was 128 last year and when comparing to Buster Posey who had 133+ his rookie year, shows me his offensive potential to be rather high. 

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, CaptDbog said:

I think those deals are very possible to do.  Lots of Risk but having top talent signed long term is a nice reward.  If I had to pick, I would want to sign Adley long term. Leadership skills, defensive value, and high offense potential.  Adley's OPS+ was 128 last year and when comparing to Buster Posey who had 133+ his rookie year, shows me his offensive potential to be rather high. 

I think part of the reason people would prefer to extend Adley is because he has been looked at as the franchise guy since he was drafted 2019.

Gunnar was a bit of an after thought and then he exploded and I would bet that, deep down, people wonder if he has peaked and isn’t as good as we hope.

There is no doubting of Adley.

 

[Frobby]

22 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I think part of the reason people would prefer to extend Adley is because he has been looked at as the franchise guy since he was drafted 2019.

Gunnar was a bit of an after thought and then he exploded and I would bet that, deep down, people wonder if he has peaked and isn’t as good as we hope.

There is no doubting of Adley.

 

Exactly.  I still have plenty of confidence in Gunnar, but there’s risk there.   Adley is a no-doubt stud.   

[Moose Milligan]

Adley's bat and hitting approach will transfer wherever he goes after he's done playing catcher, such as 1st base. 

Gunnar is more of a risk but I don't think Gunnar, at his worst, will be completely awful to make that Carroll-esque contract a complete albatross.  

 

[CaptDbog]

8 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Adley's bat and hitting approach will transfer wherever he goes after he's done playing catcher, such as 1st base. 

Gunnar is more of a risk but I don't think Gunnar, at his worst, will be completely awful to make that Carroll-esque contract a complete albatross.  

 

For sure Adley's offensive potential will transfer anywhere, but how much does his value decrease when moving from the catcher position?  He had a 1.5 dwar for 113 games last year. 

[Moose Milligan]

3 minutes ago, CaptDbog said:

For sure Adley's offensive potential will transfer anywhere, but how much does his value decrease when moving from the catcher position?  He had a 1.5 dwar for 113 games last year. 

It'll decrease for sure.  We'll have to hope that he can remain a strong defender at catcher for awhile.  

[interloper]

Extensions are the biggest remaining question about this version of the Orioles ownership/baseball management group. Will Elias try to sling a bunch of extensions and hope a couple of them hit, like the Astros? Will JA actually be down to lock up players early? Will any of the players actually sign up for this or are they all looking at this insane past offseason and saying screw that give me free agency? 

Edited March 16, 2023 by interloper

[eddie83]

The Athletic has a bunch of stories this week on extensions. Calling it extension week. Today is pre arb players. 
 

For Adley they have 9/134. 
Gunnar is 8/120 with perhaps a club option of $30M for a possible total of 9/150. 

[joelala]

I said in another thread earlier this winter that extensions would be the biggest off-season/ early season development for me, and I stand by it. It will be a huge indicator of how they plan to run their business. Are there currently any teams that don’t give out early extensions? I would imagine the A’s don’t. Marlins as well. Basically the two cheapest teams in baseball.