Adam Frazier 2023

[wildcard]

I still think Frazier is traded in July.   He is on a one year contract.   Elias would trade him for a prospect.  His recent surge just helps his trade value if he can maintain it.   With Urias, Westburg and Ortiz available I don't see Elias holding on to Frazier all season.

[EddeeEddee]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I still think Frazier is traded in July.   He is on a one year contract.   Elias would trade him for a prospect.  His recent surge just helps his trade value if he can maintain it.   With Urias, Westburg and Ortiz available I don't see Elias holding on to Frazier all season.

Or he could trade Urias or Mateo if those players bring more value in a trade.  Frazier is a big reason the O's have won the past several games.  He may just be on a hot streak; but the next 6 weeks or so will tell if he's just got hot or if he's still consistently contributing.

[Mr-splash]

16 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I still think Frazier is traded in July.   He is on a one year contract.   Elias would trade him for a prospect.  His recent surge just helps his trade value if he can maintain it.   With Urias, Westburg and Ortiz available I don't see Elias holding on to Frazier all season.

Frazier has more value to us than he does to other teams. He is what he is. A solid veteran on a 1 year deal. People are over analyzing it. He is here. He is playing well. And we are winning. At some point we should actually try and make the playoffs.

[Frobby]

19 minutes ago, EddeeEddee said:

Or he could trade Urias or Mateo if those players bring more value in a trade.  Frazier is a big reason the O's have won the past several games.  He may just be on a hot streak; but the next 6 weeks or so will tell if he's just got hot or if he's still consistently contributing.

Players aren’t metronomes.  Their performance fluctuates up and down. Some fluctuate more extremely than others, like Mateo.  But they all do it to one degree or another and you never really know when a guy will go hot or cold.  So, I’m not sure that whatever Frazier does the next 6 weeks will affect his trade value much.  

Chances are we could get a prospect for Frazier, if there are teams in the race who need a 2B.   The two teams who were expected to contend that have done poorly at 2B are Houston and Seattle.  For Houston, Altuve has just returned after missing the first 7 weeks of the season, so problem solved.  Seattle (22-24) may not be in contention by the trade deadline, and therefore may not be in trading mode.   Kolten Wong has been very bad this year and they’ve been playing Jose Caballero there more of late.  They traded for Frazier in 2021, would they do it again?   Maybe, but they probably wouldn’t give up much.  Last time, they traded a player ranked 18th in their system and a 27-year old minor leaguer.  https://www.lookoutlanding.com/platform/amp/2021/11/27/22804744/mariners-acquire-adam-frazier-from-san-diego-padres-for-two-prospects-ray-kerr-corey-rosier

So, I doubt we would get anything meaningful for Frazier in a trade.  

[Mr-splash]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Players aren’t metronomes.  Their performance fluctuates up and down. Some fluctuate more extremely than others, like Mateo.  But they all do it to one degree or another and you never really know when a guy will go hot or cold.  So, I’m not sure that whatever Frazier does the next 6 weeks will affect his trade value much.  

Chances are we could get a prospect for Frazier, if there are teams in the race who need a 2B.   The two teams who were expected to contend that have done poorly at 2B are Houston and Seattle.  For Houston, Altuve has just returned after missing the first 7 weeks of the season, so problem solved.  Seattle (22-24) may not be in contention by the trade deadline, and therefore may not be in trading mode.   Kolten Wong has been very bad this year and they’ve been playing Jose Caballero there more of late.  They traded for Frazier in 2021, would they do it again?   Maybe, but they probably wouldn’t give up much.  Last time, they traded a player ranked 18th in their system and a 27-year old minor leaguer.  https://www.lookoutlanding.com/platform/amp/2021/11/27/22804744/mariners-acquire-adam-frazier-from-san-diego-padres-for-two-prospects-ray-kerr-corey-rosier

So, I doubt we would get anything meaningful for Frazier in a trade.  

So he has more value to us being on the MLB roster than he does via trade. 

[wildcard]

21 minutes ago, Mr-splash said:

Frazier has more value to us than he does to other teams. He is what he is. A solid veteran on a 1 year deal. People are over analyzing it. He is here. He is playing well. And we are winning. At some point we should actually try and make the playoffs.

I don't think replacing Frazier with Urias, Westburg or Ortiz would change the O's chances of making the playoffs or winning playoff games.   I am betting Elias feels the same way.

[owknows]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

1.  It’s not true that Frazier had a negative WAR through March/April.   You may have seen that I am tracking WAR in 18-game segments.   Frazier had 0.6 rWAR, 0.3 fWAR in the first 18 game segment.  Per information earlier in this thread, that had dipped to 0.4 rWAR, 0.0 by April 29, before he hit his 3rd homer on April 30.  He was worth 0.8 rWAR, 0.3 fWAR at the end of the second 18-game segment.   Before last night (10 games into the third segment), he was at 0.9 rWAR, 0.6 fWAR.   So by rWAR, he’s been positive pretty much from day one.   By fWAR, he started positive, dropped to around zero but never got below it towards the end of the month, and is now sturdily positive.   

2.  Yes, he did have a career low .612 OPS last year.  And yet, as I stated before, he was still worth 0.7 rWAR, 1.1 fWAR.   That’s not slightly below replacement. 

3.  So, I am not relying on Frazier’s current .742 OPS to state that it’s incorrect to say he’s a slightly below replacement player.   I’ll come right out and say it: I don’t expect Frazier will end the year at .742 OPS, though it’s possible.  He’ll probably end up lower.  But that won’t make him a slightly less than replacement level player.   

4.  It’s worth noting that, going into last night, Frazier’s wOBA was 6 points lower than his xwOBA.   So while he may be on a hot streak, there’s no evidence that l his current numbers are based on luck. In his career-worst offensive year last year, his wOBA was 23 points below his xwOBA, so pretty unlucky.  

5.  So, there is nothing hyper-emotional about my view on this subject.  I speak with Spock-like detachment when I say there’s no evidence supporting a statement that Frazier is a slightly less than replacement level player.  Not in his career, not last year, and not this year.   


 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=fraziad01&year=2023&t=b#month

You may have noticed that I said nothing about Frazier's first 18 games. I was discussing his first 28 games (March/April)

I mentioned his March/April Stats (.663 OPS) vs. his May stats. (.840 OPS)

Over his first 18 games... you had his OPS at .759. Quite a difference from the March/April stats that I was discussing, where his actual OPS was .663

I mentioned that difference (March/April v May) because I thought it relevant... and to me suggestive that May's performance is a hot streak. I may be wrong. And as an O's fan I hope that I am.

You pointed out in this thread that his WAR had dipped to 0.1 pm April 30th. When his OPS was .759

I thought I had read that the WAR number that corresponded to his March/April .663 OPS was -0.2, but can't find that number now.. so will concede the point.

My characterization of your response as hyper-emotional had nothing to do with your substance. And everything to do with your style.

You entered the conversation by saying "please stop being ridiculous" and "it's ludicrous to say".. which I thought were both a bit hyperbolic, and a bit out of character. And I thought unwarranted. I don't mind being called to task if you think I'm wrong... but at least have a conversation.

 

Edited May 22, 2023 by owknows
spelling

[wildcard]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Players aren’t metronomes.  Their performance fluctuates up and down. Some fluctuate more extremely than others, like Mateo.  But they all do it to one degree or another and you never really know when a guy will go hot or cold.  So, I’m not sure that whatever Frazier does the next 6 weeks will affect his trade value much.  

Chances are we could get a prospect for Frazier, if there are teams in the race who need a 2B.   The two teams who were expected to contend that have done poorly at 2B are Houston and Seattle.  For Houston, Altuve has just returned after missing the first 7 weeks of the season, so problem solved.  Seattle (22-24) may not be in contention by the trade deadline, and therefore may not be in trading mode.   Kolten Wong has been very bad this year and they’ve been playing Jose Caballero there more of late.  They traded for Frazier in 2021, would they do it again?   Maybe, but they probably wouldn’t give up much.  Last time, they traded a player ranked 18th in their system and a 27-year old minor leaguer.  https://www.lookoutlanding.com/platform/amp/2021/11/27/22804744/mariners-acquire-adam-frazier-from-san-diego-padres-for-two-prospects-ray-kerr-corey-rosier

So, I doubt we would get anything meaningful for Frazier in a trade.  

Injuries happen and what we see now around the league will change.  

[terpoh]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

I still think Frazier is traded in July.   He is on a one year contract.   Elias would trade him for a prospect.  His recent surge just helps his trade value if he can maintain it.   With Urias, Westburg and Ortiz available I don't see Elias holding on to Frazier all season.

I just dont see it. Frazier will never be as valuable as even Jorge Lopez was a year ago because he is a rental. The point isnt will the Orioles drop off if we trade Frazier the point is we wont get anything back of real value. 

The scenarios in July are:

1) Orioles are playing well and so is Frazier

2) Orioles are not playing well and Frazier is playing well

3) Orioles are playing well and Frazier is not playing well

4) Orioles are not playing well and Frazier is not playing well

Scenario 1 if the Orioles are contending and Frazier is a big part of that, why in the world would they trade him? Scenario 2 is the most likely to try to move him where we are out of it and he is playing well. Also probably the least likely of scenarios to be true with how we are currently playing. Scenario 3, well I guess a trade in that case could be the move but what will you get for Frazier if hes not playing well and is a rental? Scenario 4- same thing he just doesnt have value at that point if hes not contributing. 

In other words- I just dont see a way that Frazier gets traded- either because he is helping us win or because he wont bring anything of value in return. 

[Moose Milligan]

This thread is hilarious 

[Sports Guy]

7 hours ago, Frobby said:

Sure, just draw the at bat line wherever it best suits your argument at some random point in the middle of 2021.  Meanwhile, he’s at .742 this season and has reached base 19 games in a row.  I’m enjoying that ride.   

Would Westburg be doing better?   Why don’t we be honest about it and admit we don’t know.  He’s hitting very well in AAA.   We’ve had a lot of debuts the last two years and some guys make a smooth transition, some guys don’t.  I would rather have given Westburg the shot, but we didn’t.  Frazier is doing a solid job, he’s hot right now, and I’ll root for him to stay hot.
 

1) That isn’t some new line. People like to talk about his 2021 season but the first half was helped but a very high and unsustainable BABIP and he has been awful since. This has been argued since the offseason. If you don’t find that relevant, I don’t know what to tell you other than you are wrong.

2) It has been clearly stated, in this thread, that we don’t know what Westburg would be doing up here…but yet we have one poster acting as if it’s a foregone conclusion that Frazier would be doing better.

3) I’m glad you will root for him. Definitely needed to be said.

Edited May 22, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Moose Milligan]

Let the record show that SG has a hard time counting to three. 

[Moose Milligan]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

1) That isn’t some new line. People like to talk about his 2021 season but the first half was helped but a very high and unsustainable BABIP and he has been awful since. This has been argued since the offseason. If you don’t find that relevant, I don’t know what to tell you other than you are wrong.

2) It has been clearly stated, in this thread, that we don’t know what Westburg would be doing up here…but yet we have one poster acting as if it’s a foregone conclusion that Frazier would be doing better.

4) I’m glad you will root for him. Definitely needed to be said.

Quoted for posterity. 

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, terpoh said:

I just dont see it. Frazier will never be as valuable as even Jorge Lopez was a year ago because he is a rental. The point isnt will the Orioles drop off if we trade Frazier the point is we wont get anything back of real value. 

The scenarios in July are:

1) Orioles are playing well and so is Frazier

2) Orioles are not playing well and Frazier is playing well

3) Orioles are playing well and Frazier is not playing well

4) Orioles are not playing well and Frazier is not playing well

Scenario 1 if the Orioles are contending and Frazier is a big part of that, why in the world would they trade him? Scenario 2 is the most likely to try to move him where we are out of it and he is playing well. Also probably the least likely of scenarios to be true with how we are currently playing. Scenario 3, well I guess a trade in that case could be the move but what will you get for Frazier if hes not playing well and is a rental? Scenario 4- same thing he just doesnt have value at that point if hes not contributing. 

In other words- I just dont see a way that Frazier gets traded- either because he is helping us win or because he wont bring anything of value in return. 

Mancini was a rental last year with a 751 OPS at the deadline.   Elias traded him for Seth Johnson and Chayce McDermott.   Elias will not want prospect(s) that need to be on the 40 man roster.   That will be pretty full.  He will want young guys.

[RZNJ]

24 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Let the record show that SG has a hard time counting to three. 

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