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Jud Fabian 2023

Frobby

By Frobby
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Jammer7
Jammer7

He was a year older, sure. It didn’t matter because he enrolled early at UF. When we drafted him last year, he was 21 and turned 22 in late September. Age wasn’t a factor. He skipped his senior season

CaptainRedbeard
CaptainRedbeard

Something I haven’t seen mentioned so far - Fabian’s splits:  vs. RHP: .215/.339/.405, 391 PA, 60 BB, 128 K vs. LHP: .248/.381/.541, 134 PA, 21 BB, 41 K Interesting that the K/BB was ab

Alasdaire
Alasdaire

2022 is probably my favorite Orioles draft under the Elias/Sig front office. Holliday was not the slam dunk 1:1, but they had the conviction to do it and were right. And then they got three guys

Tony-OH Hangout Grand Counsel

Tony-OH

Posted
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8 hours ago, Frobby said:

Guys who are hitting .177 in AA aren’t a perfect fit for anything yet.  

I guess if there was any kinda good news is that he slashed a Rob Deeresque .214/.398/.443/.841 with 5 HR, 19 BB and 31 K in 93 PAs in his last 20 games.

While I won't bury him until he gets another full AA season under his belt, his 108 Ks in 288 AA PAs his not only a red flag, but it's an entire fire truck of red lights going off along with sirens. He is a good defensive outfielder and he did hit lefties ok, even at Bowie where he slashed .206/.359/.476/.835, but with still to much miss (29K in 78 PAs).

Unless there was something physically wrong with him that we don't know about, to say I'm concerned about his future ability to hit major league pitching can not be understated. 

He needs to come back a different hitter in 2024 and his rankings will suffer due to his AA numbers.

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RZNJ Hangout Grand Counsel

RZNJ

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13 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I guess if there was any kinda good news is that he slashed a Rob Deeresque .214/.398/.443/.841 with 5 HR, 19 BB and 31 K in 93 PAs in his last 20 games.

While I won't bury him until he gets another full AA season under his belt, his 108 Ks in 288 AA PAs his not only a red flag, but it's an entire fire truck of red lights going off along with sirens. He is a good defensive outfielder and he did hit lefties ok, even at Bowie where he slashed .206/.359/.476/.835, but with still to much miss (29K in 278 PAs).

Unless there was something physically wrong with him that we don't know about, to say I'm concerned about his future ability to hit major league pitching can not be understated. 

He needs to come back a different hitter in 2024 and his rankings will suffer due to his AA numbers.

According to Bref, overall against LHP he struck out 41 times in 134 PA.

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btdart20 Hangout Veteran Council

btdart20

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51 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I guess if there was any kinda good news is that he slashed a Rob Deeresque .214/.398/.443/.841 with 5 HR, 19 BB and 31 K in 93 PAs in his last 20 games.

While I won't bury him until he gets another full AA season under his belt, his 108 Ks in 288 AA PAs his not only a red flag, but it's an entire fire truck of red lights going off along with sirens. He is a good defensive outfielder and he did hit lefties ok, even at Bowie where he slashed .206/.359/.476/.835, but with still to much miss (29K in 278 PAs).

Unless there was something physically wrong with him that we don't know about, to say I'm concerned about his future ability to hit major league pitching can not be understated. 

He needs to come back a different hitter in 2024 and his rankings will suffer due to his AA numbers.

I've gotta think Elias is fading Fabian's odds of success too.  The hit tool is the tool that rules all tools.  This is why I was asking about Beavers yesterday.

All due respect to Rob Deer, he never struck out 200 times.  :) Chris Davis averaged about 200 Ks over a 4 season span.

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RZNJ Hangout Grand Counsel

RZNJ

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2 hours ago, btdart20 said:

I've gotta think Elias is fading Fabian's odds of success too.  The hit tool is the tool that rules all tools.  This is why I was asking about Beavers yesterday.

All due respect to Rob Deer, he never struck out 200 times.  :) Chris Davis averaged about 200 Ks over a 4 season span.

Deer did strike out 177 times in 474 AB’s in AA which is a 37% strikeout rate.  Fabian struck out 37% at AA.   Maybe there’s hope.

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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9 hours ago, Rbiggs2525 said:

Maybe I am in the minority but I believe in the player. He may never be a full time starter but I see the perfect 4th/5th OF with Pop and can grab a base. The strikeouts are alarming but I believe in the Orioles development team. 

I think there is potential there, but the contact rate is a huge obstacle.  2024 will be a huge developmental year for him and by the end of it we’ll have a better idea of what he can become.   

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Tony-OH Hangout Grand Counsel

Tony-OH

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5 hours ago, Frobby said:

I think there is potential there, but the contact rate is a huge obstacle.  2024 will be a huge developmental year for him and by the end of it we’ll have a better idea of what he can become.   

By the end of next season we'll know if he's McKenna with more pop, or Zach Watson.

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nvpacchi Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

nvpacchi

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Jose Siri accumulated 2.7 fWAR this season through plus defense and good pop- all while never having a BB rate >10% at any stop anywhere in the minors or majors (plus K rates north of 30% at all stops in the upper minors and MLB).

That's where I see Fabian now - Siri with a great eye.  If there's a path anywhere in his game to get a K rate close to 30% that'd feel like a really useful player.

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