8 turns through the rotation (sort of)

[Frobby]

Our OD starter makes his 9th start today, so we’ve gone through the rotation 8 times, though only two of our pitchers have actually made 8 starts.  Let’s see what we have.

- Kyle Gibson (4-2) has made all 8 starts, throwing 47.0 innings to a 4.40 ERA (99 ERA+).  He’s only failed to go 5 innings once, and has gone 6+ five times.  We’re getting exactly what we paid for.

- Dean Kremer (4-1) also has made all 8 starts, throwing 41.2 innings to a 4.97 ERA (88 ERA+).  He’s failed to go 5 innings twice (both in his first 3 starts), and has gone 6+ three times (including his last two).   I expected some ERA regression from last year based on his 2022 xERA, but this had swung way too far in the other direction.   He’s looked good his last two outings and I expect improvement from here.  

- Tyler Wells (3-1) has had 8 appearances, including 7 starts and an emergency long relief appearance in his first outing of the year when Kyle Bradish took a line drive off his foot.  
He’s thrown 47.0 innings to a 2.68 ERA, going at least 5 innings every time (including his relief appearance) and going 6+ four times.  For a guy who had to earn his rotation spot, he’s been our most reliable and consistent starter by far.  

Grayson Rodriguez (2-0) has made 7 starts, stepping into the rotation when Bradish got hurt.  He’s thrown 33.2 innings to a 5.08 ERA (86 ERA+).  He’s failed to go 5 innings twice and hasn’t made it through 6 yet.  He’s intriguing and somewhat maddening to watch, doing what rookies do as he’s learning. He’s leading the staff in strikeouts despite having pitched far fewer innings than Gibson, Kremer and Wells, and yet you can see him have trouble finishing off batters at times.  I look forward to seeing how he develops. 

Kyle Bradish (1-1) has made 6 starts, the first of which was cut short when he was hit by a line drive in the 2nd inning, forcing him to miss his next two turns. He’s thrown 25.2 innings to a 4.56 ERA (96 ERA+). He’s failed to go 5 innings in 3 of his six starts, including the game where he got hurt.  He’s gone 6 innings twice, including his last outing.  Now that he’s healthy and getting into rhythm, I expect to see improvement from here.  

Cole Irvin (0-2) was expected to be a mainstay of the rotation and an innings eater, but was pulled from the rotation after only three starts when Bradish returned.  He had a 10.66 ERA in 12.2 innings, failing to go 5 innings in any of his starts.  Since his demotion, Irvin appears to nave righted the ship, throwing at least 5 innings in each of 5 outings and going 6+ in four of the five.  He’s carrying a 3.19 ERA for Norfolk.  He looks ready to return to the majors, but presently there’s no room at the inn.

Overall, Wells has exceeded expectations and Gibson has met them.  Kremer, Rodriguez and Bradish have all been mild disappointments, but show signs of improvement and I expect all three to be better and mire consistent going forward than they were in the first 8 turns.  Irvin was uncharacteristically bad but seems ready to step up should the need arise.  

Overall I’d grade the first 8 turns as a C-.   Nice for the team to have a 26-13 record despite that, with the starters going 14-7 (including Wells’ relief win).
I think they can be considerably better as a group from here.  They may need to, as the bullpen and offense may have played a bit over their heads to date. 



 

[Sports Guy]

Gibson is doing what Lyles did. Not better but not worse. 
 

Of the 5 current members, my worries would be Kremer and health, especially with Wells simply because of his history.  Once Wells pitches his next start, he will be over half way to the most innings he has ever thrown.  Have to monitor that for him.

[Just Regular]

I had joked earlier this week about BAL finally rating the A block of MLB Now after the Rays series win, but the panel's spin was how the poor Rays were BABIP'd and they could have won or even swept the series.

As they were painting the Orioles as "fake good", they put up a graphic with the Rotation ERA over 5.00, and the only playoff teams from MLB history to do that and make the playoffs were a few from the Chicks Dig the Long Ball times.

They didn't give context on Irvin being shunned like a bad penny, or Grayson cutting teeth.

Anyhow, after Wells gem last night, Starters ERA now 4.75 and 18th MLB wide.     Now, BOS at 5.75 on the other hand...

[Aristotelian]

Overall, rotation ranks #18 in MLB with a 4.75 ERA. I guess I can see C- for that if you are including Irvin's F performance prior to his demotion. Where they are currently I would consider more like B-. I also like that Kremer and Bradish appear headed in the right direction following early struggles, especially Bradish who has given up 4+ runs only once.

Last year we were 21st with a 4.35 ERA so it appears we are better on a relative basis but only because league offense must be up. 4.75 isn't too bad when you consider F rotations OAK 7.58 and CIN 6.57 at the bottom, and CWS, COL, KC, NYM, and STL all in the 5's.

Individually I would say something like:

Wells A

Gibson B-

Bradish C+

Kremer C-

Grayson C-

Irvin F

If you take the current top five I would argue for a C+.

[sportsfan8703]

Interesting that Grayson has the lowest ERA+ at 86 of our current rotation. Spenser Watkins had a 84 ERA+ last year. Just another interesting stat. 
 

Kremer was sitting 94-96 his last start. Bradish was sitting 94 with his sinker and 95/96 with his fastball. Wells’ 8 Ks were pretty good for a guy that doesn’t get strikeouts. 
 

I like that are guys adjusted and have improved. Especially against better comp and big moments. They improved last year too. Kudos to them and the coaching. 

[sportsfan8703]

Just now, Aristotelian said:

Overall, rotation ranks #18 in MLB with a 4.75 ERA. I guess I can see C- for that if you are including Irvin's F performance prior to his demotion. Where they are currently I would consider more like B-. I also like that Kremer and Bradish appear headed in the right direction following early struggles, especially Bradish who has given up 4+ runs only once.

Last year we were 21st with a 4.35 ERA so it appears we are better on a relative basis but only because league offense must be up. 4.75 isn't too bad when you consider F rotations OAK 7.58 and CIN 6.57 at the bottom, and CWS, COL, KC, NYM, and STL all in the 5's.

Individually I would say something like:

Wells A

Gibson B-

Bradish C+

Kremer C-

Grayson C-

Irvin F

If you take the current top five I would argue for a C+.

18th in MLB but when you factor in that we face AL East teams we might be closer to 10th over than 20th. 

[wildcard]

Most of the starters had a bad April.   Maybe it was them  getting stretched out.  Maybe the weather. Maybe because they were playing bad teams and they played to that level.   But In May when the competition got tough they stepped up.  The team is is 5-3 vs the Braves, Rays and two vs the Pirates.   Ben said the starters  have a 1.74 ERA in those games.  

I think we are seeing a confidence group of starters reaching what they are capable of doing.   I  posted before the season that I expected:

Wells 3.38 like he did in the 1st half of 2022

Bradish 3.28 like he did in the 2nd half of 2022

Kremer 3.23  like he did last year

Gibson 3.96  because of the defense, Adley, the wall and Holt plus what he did in Texas in 2021

GRod 3.50 because he was the best starter  in the minors last season

I still think all that is possible and Hall is near ready if needed,  Irvin is ready, and Rom is a few starts from being ready.  

Don't underestimate these guys.   They are on a mission.

 

 

 

[Just Regular]

63 AL Active Roster starters have completed 20 innings YTD - the BAL guys K-BB rank are 20, 24, 39, 42 and 50.    Bradish in the bottom half is the one that feels likeliest to flip halves.

The 2012 Orioles SP were six deep as Tillman finally threw 80 good innings after 5.50+ ERA's for three painful years.      75 AL Starters passed 80 innings then, with Chen, Miggy, etc placing 15, 24, 30, 32, 50 and 59.     

Bradish or Kremer improvement and one above average import is I guess what it would take to get the '23 Orioles equipped with four starters above the league 50-yard line.      

 

Edited May 14, 2023 by Just Regular

[dystopia]

It's going to be interesting when Means comes back assuming there are no injuries. Someone will have to go, but there's no standout candidate.

Still got a couple months before worrying about that though.

[Sports Guy]

15 minutes ago, dystopia said:

It's going to be interesting when Means comes back assuming there are no injuries. Someone will have to go, but there's no standout candidate.

Still got a couple months before worrying about that though.

There are multiple pitchers they probably don’t want to go past 150 innings. 
 

I think this will take care of itself.

[Mooreisbetter27]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Gibson is doing what Lyles did. Not better but not worse. 
 

Of the 5 current members, my worries would be Kremer and health, especially with Wells simply because of his history.  Once Wells pitches his next start, he will be over half way to the most innings he has ever thrown.  Have to monitor that for him.

Yes but Lyles has been a dumpster fire for KC so it appears they made the right choice.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Mooreisbetter27 said:

Yes but Lyles has been a dumpster fire for KC so it appears they made the right choice.

Well, this assumes 2 things:

1) that these 2 were your only choices.(yuck)

2) That Lyles pitches the same here as he has. The homers are up for him this year. Maybe that’s not an issue pitching at Walltimore.

 

[Aristotelian]

45 minutes ago, dystopia said:

It's going to be interesting when Means comes back assuming there are no injuries. Someone will have to go, but there's no standout candidate.

Still got a couple months before worrying about that though.

An injury or two could solve the "problem". If not I would guess Grayson to the bullpen to limit innings, or Kremer optioned if he stays inconsistent. Means does have options, which is interesting. If he is still pseudo rehabbing he does not have to do it at the MLB level.

[OriolesMagic83]

33 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

There are multiple pitchers they probably don’t want to go past 150 innings. 
 

I think this will take care of itself.

I would guess Wells and GrayRod are at the top of that list.  Which is worrisome, because that could be the O's 2 best starters going forward.  Maybe they can skip a start or two, at different times of course.  Wells just looks like a horse.

[Spy Fox]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

18th in MLB but when you factor in that we face AL East teams we might be closer to 10th over than 20th. 

The games that scare me most are the games at each of the division teams. Last year the staff as a whole posted ERAs of 6.00, 5.33, 5.13, and 5.12 in Boston, TB, Toronto, and NY. They were better at home against all four opponents, significantly better in the cases of Boston/TB/NY. 

We've only played 3 of our 26 scheduled games in those locations so far. The upcoming road trip to Toronto and NY will be a great test. 

Edited May 14, 2023 by Spy Fox