Specific Trade Ideas

[tntoriole]

45 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

He used the misjudged the market excuse during the offseason.

If you continually misjudge the market the issue is you, not the market.

Yes… i would rather he just say.. there is a plan to win five years in a row and if it is not in our long term interest to trade the projected value players for current big leaguers, then I don’t trade. 

[Sports Guy]

2 hours ago, MurphDogg said:

Nah, I would be shocked if any pending free-agent other than Ohtani required anyone above the Ortiz/Norby tier.

A Westburg/Cowser type would require a player with at least one more year of control.

Not sure Ortiz should be separated from Cowser and certainly not Westburg.

Agree that Norby is a tier below.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, RarityFlaherty said:

I guess my issue has more to do with calling it an excuse, than whether he “judged the market accurately” beforehand. It’s not necessarily an incorrect move if he went in to the market looking for a good deal, didn’t find one, and decided against making any moves at all. 

I think saying he used it as an excuse for not doing more in the offseason is accurate.

You can of course feel free to disagree.

I'm clearly not talking about the trade deadline which hasn't expired yet.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Tryptamine said:

Comparatively, remember that last year for David Robertson the Cubs got Ben Brown who is a back end of the top 100 prospect. I'd be surprised if Povich was the leading piece for Hader. 

Povich is a top 100 guy for some.

[Sports Guy]

55 minutes ago, Greg Pappas said:

That have a very good 2B already.  I doubt Norby would be targeted.  They could use a CF and 1B/DH type... and pitching, naturally.

Norby is probably an OFer though.

[Sports Guy]

27 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

I don't mean this as a shot at the team, but the Orioles can't really afford to just do nothing at the deadline. They've given no indication that they're going to significantly raise payroll so you only have so many years of these guys on the cheap before they start hitting arbitration. They don't have to chase the best of the best, but they have no excuses at all not to find pieces that make them better. 

They have to find pieces that help them in the playoffs. Trading for players just for poops and giggles isn’t smart.

There are only so many true upgrades for them out there.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Sydnor said:

The walks are definitely an issue, but you have to look past that the surface numbers. His expected ERA is a 3.94, and his xFIP is 4.18. The expected batting averages on his pitches are .196 on the changeup, .204 on the 4 seam, .236 on the curve, .208 on the slider, and .316 on the sinker. Everything is above average except the walk rate, which is poor, and the barrel rate, which is below average. 

I understand you’d like more help this year, but I don’t see Elias giving up a lot for a rental. Cabrera wouldn’t be FA eligible until 2029, and he would have the potential to help down the stretch and would probably be the second most talented pitcher in the MLB rotation next year (the team would have to help hIm get to that talent by improving his control and command). I also know you like rankings, so before Cabrera graduated, he was ranked 44 in the top 100 by Kiley McDaniel and 33 in the top 100 by Keith Law.

I don’t think it will happen, but I do think it would be a creative trade that could benefit the organization this year, with the potential for Cabrera to become a mid to top of the rotation starter in the future.

Cabrera was a target of mine in the offseason.

It’s all about the walks with him. Love the upside. Adding him or a guy like Woo or Miller for one of our young bats makes tons of sense. I said Cowser for Woo or Miller. This trade is in that same vain. Love the idea.

[MurphDogg]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Not sure Ortiz should be separated from Cowser and certainly not Westburg.

Agree that Norby is a tier below.

Keith Law and Fangraphs would agree with you. MLB Pipeline,and Baseball America have some separation between Ortiz and Cowser and Westburg. Norby definitely a half-step below, probably on his own tier before the Hall/Beavers/Basallo/Bradfield/Fabian tier.

[Hallas]

10 hours ago, EddeeEddee said:

I think that was true last season or in the offseason, but I suspect the Angels realized they would not get what they were wanted for 2 months of Ohtani.  So they changed course and decided to go for broke instead.  Still I think most Angels fans love the move even if it feels hopelessly too little too late to anyone not an Angels fan.  They could get a few unlikely lucky breaks and somehow get in.

They still get an end-of-first-round comp pick if he walks, and a better shot at re-signing him.  I think the Angels' closest shot at competing in the next 5 years hinges around keeping Ohtani and getting their heads out of their butts with the rest of their roster.

Edited July 27, 2023 by Hallas

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, MurphDogg said:

Keith Law and Fangraphs would agree with you. MLB Pipeline,and Baseball America have some separation between Ortiz and Cowser and Westburg. Norby definitely a half-step below, probably on his own tier before the Hall/Beavers/Basallo/Bradfield/Fabian tier.

Basallo is above all of those guys.

Cowser is getting extra love in the rankings because of draft position. 
 

Ortiz is putting up as good numbers in the minors as him and Westburg and plays elite defense and probably can be a GG caliber defender at 3 positions.

Cowser is the youngest, which gives him the leg up but I wouldn’t put Westburg over Ortiz or at least not with any amount of separation. They are on the same tier

[RarityFlaherty]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think saying he used it as an excuse for not doing more in the offseason is accurate.

You can of course feel free to disagree.

I'm clearly not talking about the trade deadline which hasn't expired yet.

I guess you could call it an excuse, but then that just feels like you’re looking for reasons to be upset about what he did in the offseason. I just don’t think it was necessarily a mistake to not make a move. Looking at our record, it doesn’t seem like him “not doing more in the off-season” has hurt us all that much. As much as we might disagree with what he did this off-season, maybe it was the right move to be more conservative. 

[e16bball]

I think the one major mistake Elias has made, both last offseason and at this trade deadline, is in hesitating.

I think (though it’s absolutely total speculation on my part) that his biggest regret in the offseason was letting the Rays jump on Eflin right out of the gate. I suspect he felt like he could let that opportunity go because there would be other comparable options developing later in the offseason — but there just weren’t many good deals to be had after that, as everyone wanted pitching and there just weren’t enough quality pitchers to be had.

I’m afraid that’s where things are headed at this deadline. They missed the boat on Chapman, and that’s one I think they’ll regret. Texas is a likely postseason competitor, and they landed the exact type of player we need for an absolute song. They got out ahead of the deadline frenzy, and they’ll reap some rewards for that, as I suspect we’ll end up paying at least as much (and perhaps appreciably more) for a lesser reliever. There are only a handful of sure sellers, and everyone + their brother is chasing the pitching that’s out there. 

I think that constitutes “misjudging the market,” though only in a general sense. If the supply exceeds the demand, waiting out the market can be an effective strategy. But when the reverse is true — and at this point, it seems to be exceedingly true — you’re going to end up forced to choose between overpaying and walking away.

[HakunaSakata]

2 hours ago, MurphDogg said:

Nah, I would be shocked if any pending free-agent other than Ohtani required anyone above the Ortiz/Norby tier.

A Westburg/Cowser type would require a player with at least one more year of control.

I don't know...the White Sox were able to land a top 60ish prospect for a worse SP and significantly worse RP than Snell and Hader. If that's the market value is it really that unrealistic to expect a top 30ish prospect to headline a deal with the Padres? Last I check Westburg was the 30th best prospect and I think some of the shine may have fallen off Cowser a bit because of his struggles at the major league level. 

[Bemorewins]

51 minutes ago, RarityFlaherty said:

Why do you assume he misjudged the market? He could have judged the market correctly, but decided it was too expensive to pursue certain options. 

In your opinion, was what the Angels gave up for Giolito "too expensive"? Do you think that the Orioles could have done that move or can make a similar move?

[HakunaSakata]

1 hour ago, Bemorewins said:

I appreciate the insight/explanation. He would be a cost-controlled option. 

But it seems like a risky proposition to me with everything we stand to gain or lose this year. I would rather an option that comes with less risk/more certainty.

But I give you an A for creativity! Lol

Why is there inherently anymore risk in someone like Cabrera than there is Cowser? As the other person pointed out Cabrera has A TON of upside Just as much if not more than someone like Cowser. That's the type of trade that would make a lot of sense for both teams, but it would be more about the future than ramping up for a playoff run this season.