What are your expectations by the trade deadline?

[btdart20]

3 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Is this a command?

Please.

[Roll Tide]

44 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Here’s a LHP under the radar type.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/perdoan01.shtml

Not saying they wouldn’t but he’s under control until 2009, cheap , and effective. Sounds l8ke a guy they’d want to hang onto. 

[RZNJ]

5 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Not saying they wouldn’t but he’s under control until 2009, cheap , and effective. Sounds l8ke a guy they’d want to hang onto. 

You’re right, BUT, Pittsburgh is a young rebuilding team and might think they are trading high on a reliever without much track record for a more valuable long term  piece.   Probably not but I was searching non contenders for LH bullpen pieces and came up with him and Brooks Riley of the Mets.   

[Brooks The Great]

1 hour ago, btdart20 said:

I expect Elias to NOT trade MLB offensive contributors like Santander, Hays, Mullins, or (shockingly) O'Hearn (and obviously guys like Gunnar and Adley).  Not that they are untouchable, but that value of the return won't improve the current value of those guys.  There's certainly a path (like trading Santander for an SP upgrade), but I just don't expect that to happen.

On the same page with you on all the trade pieces and what the O's are targeting, but I'd sell high on O'Hearn. Not only does he not have a place on the team long-term with so many elite prospects getting close to the majors, but Kjerstad is ready and should be called up right before the roster expansion deadline (like Gunnar was last year). That would push Santander to 1B/DH pretty much full time, or Kjerstad would get most of the DH at bats when he's not playing RF or 1B.

O'Hearn reminds me of Gerardo Parra when the Orioles traded for Parra. Older player having a career year who never came close to replicating it again, but a team desperate for offense overpaid. Unfortunately it was the Orioles who overpaid for Parra, but there will be a team in need of a lefty bat like O'Hearn.

Edited July 20, 2023 by Brooks The Great

[tntoriole]

Wasn’t the Fujinami deal made?  What do you want? 
 

Seriously all I want is for Elias not to do anything stupid.  And I don’t believe he will. If it stays pat, Ok.. if we add a good piece with minimal impact good, if we go bold, well we shall see 

[Aristotelian]

Want a SP upgrade, expect a solid bullpen guy to slot after Cano. 

[Billy F-Face3]

3 hours ago, Fan4Life said:

Lots of pitching expectations on this thread and others... does nobody think we need a bat? 

Mike Elias already ruled out trading position players when he said they "weren't motivated" to trade for any.

[interloper]

3 minutes ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

Mike Elias already ruled out trading position players when he said they "weren't motivated" to trade for any.

He did, and I don't think he will trade for a bat. That said, I think you could use an upgrade on Hicks, as solid as he's been. The team could really use a true home run hitter and Hicks' spot is where I'd look to make that upgrade.

Someone like Bellinger would make a lot of sense to me, even though he's not the true home run hitter I just mentioned. Lefty, Mullins insurance, good OBP, playoff experience. Not gonna happen though. 

Edited July 20, 2023 by interloper

[Billy F-Face3]

I think the Orioles need a David Cone style of trade that sets their Dyanasty in motion. If you look at what trading for Cone did for both the Blue Jays and the Yankees in the early-mid '90s (when the Yankees had a young nucleus of talent like we do now), I don't think there's any question how much of a catalyst a trade like that could be at the trade deadline.

I would love to see that, but my problem is that I'm too reserved and cheap to make something like that happen, and so is our front office and our ownership so the odds of getting a trade like that are probably small.

Instead, what we see is more Cole Irvin types of trades that don't really move the needle.

[btdart20]

12 minutes ago, Brooks The Great said:

On the same page with you on all the trade pieces and what the O's are targeting, but I'd sell high on O'Hearn. Not only does he not have a place on the team long-term with so many elite prospects getting close to the majors, but Kjerstad is ready and should be called up right before the roster expansion deadline (like Gunnar was last year). That would push Santander to 1B/DH pretty much full time, or Kjerstad would get most of the DH at bats when he's not playing RF or 1B.

O'Hearn reminds me of Gerardo Parra when the Orioles traded for Parra. Older player having a career year who never came close to replicating it again, but a team desperate for offense overpaid. Unfortunately it was the Orioles who overpaid for Parra, but there will be a team in need of a lefty bat like O'Hearn.

Yeah, agreed on the sell-high angle.  Depends on the return and comfort level with rookie adjustments/Santander at 1B for the rest of 2023 (agree with questioning his long-term place though).  I'm just not sure what O'Hearn (and his 2024 team control) gets us in return.  IMO that group of players feels like off-season decisions.  Though the buyer-to-buyer dynamics this year may be more impactful than usual with this type of player.  

[Brooks The Great]

4 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Yeah, agreed on the sell-high angle.  Depends on the return and comfort level with rookie adjustments/Santander at 1B for the rest of 2023 (agree with questioning his long-term place though).  I'm just not sure what O'Hearn (and his 2024 team control) gets us in return.  IMO that group of players feels like off-season decisions.  Though the buyer-to-buyer dynamics this year may be more impactful than usual with this type of player.  

I'd take a SP prospect in low A or rookie ball for him. I don't think it would be hard to get a prospect in the lower levels for him.

O'Hearn could also be a third or fourth piece in a bigger trade with teams like the Mariners or Guardians that have pitching depth but have a glaring need for offense.

[deward]

1 hour ago, Bemorewins said:

We all know that relief pitchers are volatile assets in terms of their productivity from one season to the next, but we are talking about THIS SEASON. And acquiring a trusted/reliable pitcher who has performed well, THIS SEASON. 

I don’t doubt for a second that Elias/Sig believed that they have identified something about Fujinama that they believe can be unlocked/fixed. 

However, when we are talking about placing our postseason fate in the hands of whoever, I see that as a risk. You know like the same thinking that went into acquiring Cole Irvin. Sometimes it works out like O’Hearn and sometimes it doesn’t like Irvin, who can’t even crack the rotation and has spent half the season in AAA.

When you have a team this good, an opportunity this good, with a system this excellent; I hope that we are going to make moves beyond Fujinama that come with less risk (like actually acquiring proven players who are performing well).

Irvin has pitched much better since he came back from the minors. I think it's a bit premature to say that the trade didn't work out. I never expected him to more than a back of the rotation/swingman type, and he seems to be settling into that type of role now.

[deward]

1 hour ago, Bemorewins said:

You really feel Blake Snell in his walk year will require “half their farm system”? Or for that matter Stroman or Eduardo Rodriguez?

I was told by some posters that Aroldis Chapman would require at least 1 top 100 prospects maybe as much as 3. And we see how that turned out. Sure maybe Ohtani would require significant costs in terms of prospects. But I don’t see many/if any other pitchers on the trade market who can command such hefty exchanges. 

All of the teams with the most prospects in the game right now (including the Dodgers) value prospects to a great degree within their organizational setups. They is no Dave Dombroski/Bowden or the like operating as these teams GMs who is just willing to give away the store and risk it all for the here and now. The Dodgers who have one of the sports highest payrolls don’t even operate that way under Friedman.

The pitcher the Rangers gave up for Chapman is the equivalent of a top 100 prospect, just with a bit too much time in the majors to qualify for any prospect lists now. The Royals didn't trade him for nothing.

[ShoelesJoe]

I agree that right now the plan is to hold on to the top prospects, and any player additions will be around the edges rather than big name game changers. But there’s still 12 days to the deadline and it’s a certainty that some things will change between now and then. Gibson is scheduled to start three games before the trade deadline, and if he craps the bed in those starts I can see Elias feeling the need to bolster the rotation. Another variable would be what improvements our rivals make in the next two weeks. If Tampa, Houston, and Toronto start loading up for the playoff push will we decide to follow suit? Maybe, maybe not. 
 

As crazy as it sounds the 2023 Baltimore Orioles are serious World Series contenders, and as the saying goes “Flags Fly Forever”. A month ago I’d have gotten nauseous at the thought of dealing Mayo and Kjerstad (for example) for two months of Ohtani. But if doing so increases our championship odds in October from 15% to 20% is it worth the price? Not to me, but it’s not a slam dunk. I can see smarter men than me deciding to roll those dice for the chance to raise the trophy in October. 

[LookinUp]

4 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

I have to confess that I do not/refuse to watch Oakland A’s baseball. I don’t like spending my time watching bad baseball to be honest. So I haven’t watched Fujinama pitch.

But he is the type of pitcher who seems FAR from a certainty in terms of guys that you trust in the post season. Right now IMO we have 2 and 3/4 (not all the way trusting of Coulombe) of relievers that you would trust in the postseason. We are going to need more than that in order to make a serious run to the World Series. Why go into the postseason with an opportunity this good and it address the team’s biggest weakness? Bullpen bell is probably the least expensive way to improve the team.

I suspect the timing of this deal wasn't a mistake. They think he's worth a flyer, but want to see what they have in him in advance of the deadline. Could be a steal. Could be unreliable.