Keith Law Top 60 Prospects

[Hank Scorpio]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t get the idea of not having Mayo on here but you have Kjerstad. That’s a head scratcher to me.

Law always stays with his favorites, which explains Ortiz and Norby.  How he scouts them from the beginning mean a lot in his rankings long term.

Yeah I don't get that either given Mayo is 21 and Kjerstad 24. 

Mayo strikes me as the type of kid that has 1000% bought into the system and has embraced it. If only we had room for him in right field.............................................

[Three Run Homer]

I feel like the universe is screaming at the O's to trade Ortiz and Norby.  Highly regarded guys, likely future major league starters, but no room for them in Baltimore.   They have to be more valuable as trade chips than as prospects in our system.  

[RZNJ]

4 minutes ago, Alasdaire said:

I guess if you're just looking at this year, you can justify playing Gunnar at short since only really he and Mateo can man the position. But it seems like you could more than get away with Mateo/Ortiz now, some combination of Mateo/Ortiz/Holliday next year, and then Holliday after that. All three of them are arguably better defensively than Gunnar.

And there's no clear 3B of the future other than Gunnar. I actually think his skillset is better suited to 3B than SS and he could be really good at that position whereas he's probably just an average SS at best. But he needs works there, so just move him to third now and let him get better sooner than later.

What makes you think Westburg is a plus defender at any position? I wouldn't put him in the same zip code as Ramon in the field.

SSS.  Early returns on DRS and OAA favor Westburg at both 2B and 3B.    What works best this season would seem to be the way to go.   It might even be the best for the next 3-5 years.   We’ll see.

I don’t see the argument for Holliday being better defensively.  He might be but based on what?

Edited July 21, 2023 by RZNJ

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, Three Run Homer said:

I feel like the universe is screaming at the O's to trade Ortiz and Norby.  Highly regarded guys, likely future major league starters, but no room for them in Baltimore.   They have to be more valuable as trade chips than as prospects in our system.  

I think everyone is assuming that it’s Westburg and not Ortiz. I wouldn’t go there yet.

I like both of them and would be happy with either but I don’t think it’s a slam dunk that Ortiz is the one who is traded.

I will be mildly surprised if Norby is here on Aug 2.

[Alasdaire]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

SSS.  Early returns on DRS and OAA favor Westburg at both 2B and 3B.    What works best this season would seem to be the way to go.   It might even be the best for the next 3-5 years.   We’ll see.

I don’t see the argument for Holliday being better defensively.  He might be but based on what?

No disagreement re. it not being definitive that Holliday is better than Gunnar at short. It's more so that we have three other guys who are either as good as or better than Gunnar at short, so I don't see the need to play him there. And if there's no need, I would put him at third because he needs the reps.

I just Gunnar's skillset at third in a way that I don't as much at short. I think he could be really good if his only responsibilities are covering the line and charging balls.

[MurphDogg]

Gunnar is at short because the other option is Mateo and they don't want his black hole of a bat in the lineup. If Mateo leaves, Ortiz could take his spot and play short with his at-bats coming mostly at the expense of Urias and Frazier.

Gunnar playing short is clearly what is best for the team right now. I prefer having Urias or Frazier's bat in the lineup with Gunnar at short over Mateo at short and Gunnar getting reps at third. He got plenty of reps at third in the minors and will be fine playing there when the time comes.

Edited July 21, 2023 by MurphDogg

[Alasdaire]

If the problem is that you can't trot out Mateo's bat at short every day so you have to mix Gunnar in there sometimes, my response would be to substitute out Mateo for Ortiz and see if Joey can hit enough to keep the position so that Gunnar can stay at third.

What does it say that the team is treating Ortiz more like Stowers than they are Cowser/Westburg? If the Orioles thought Joey was a top-35 prospect like Keith Law does, it's hard to believe that they wouldn't be able to find a place for him. You would think a top-35 infield prospect whose calling card is his defense would be able to replace Mateo's glove or Frazier's bat right now. Surely Mateo's baserunning and Frazier's... ability to bunt (?!) wouldn't trump the talent of a top-35 prospect.

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, Alasdaire said:

If the problem is that you can't trot out Mateo's bat at short every day so you have to mix Gunnar in there sometimes, my response would be to substitute out Mateo for Ortiz and see if Joey can hit enough to keep the position so that Gunnar can stay at third.

What does it say that the team is treating Ortiz more like Stowers than they are Cowser/Westburg? If the Orioles thought Joey was a top-35 prospect like Keith Law does, it's hard to believe that they wouldn't be able to find a place for him. You would think a top-35 infield prospect whose calling card is his defense would be able to replace Mateo's glove or Frazier's bat right now. Surely Mateo's baserunning and Frazier's... ability to bunt (?!) wouldn't trump the talent of a top-35 prospect.

It tells you more about what they think of Henderson at SS than it tells you about anything else.   They like him there.

[HandsomeQuack]

Gunnar has been an above average defensive SS this year (at least according to UZR). He has also looked far more comfortable there than at 3B, even though he still profiles as a 3B long term. Unless Ortiz rejoins the club, I don't know why they would play anyone else there on an everyday basis.

[Alasdaire]

2 minutes ago, HandsomeQuack said:

Gunnar has been an above average defensive SS this year (at least according to UZR). He has also looked far more comfortable there than at 3B, even though he still profiles as a 3B long term. Unless Ortiz rejoins the club, I don't know why they would play anyone else there on an everyday basis.

 To my eyes, Gunnar's range/hands don't stand out at short. He's obviously no slouch, but we're talking about MLB shortstops here. His speed is difficult to gauge, but it would surprise me if he had more than league-average speed for a SS. And I'm not sure he has the instincts/hands of blue-chip shortstop like Ortiz.

But I am impressed by Gunnar's arm/footwork/balance. His best plays at short have involved rocketing the ball across the diamond or turning double plays by himself. I think that could be adapted to third base really well in terms of throwing guys out from foul territory and short steps in while charging dribblers/bunts.

The paradox is as you point out though that he has actually performed better at short than third. Which is why I think he needs the work there if that's going to be his ultimate landing spot. Not the end of the world, just delaying the inevitable.

[HandsomeQuack]

2 minutes ago, Alasdaire said:

 To my eyes, Gunnar's range/hands don't stand out at short. He's obviously no slouch, but we're talking about MLB shortstops here. His speed is difficult to gauge, but it would surprise me if he had more than league-average speed for a SS. And I'm not sure he has the instincts/hands of blue-chip shortstop like Ortiz.

But I am impressed by Gunnar's arm/footwork/balance. His best plays at short have involved rocketing the ball across the diamond or turning double plays by himself. I think that could be adapted to third base really well in terms of throwing guys out from foul territory and short steps in while charging dribblers/bunts.

The paradox is as you point out though that he has actually performed better at short than third. Which is why I think he needs the work there if that's going to be his ultimate landing spot. Not the end of the world, just delaying the inevitable.

I agree, at least as far as Ortiz being the better defender and Gunnar's long-term home being at third. I don't know how much of a correlation there is between straight-line speed and defensive SS ability. But as the 26-man is currently constructed, he should be the starting SS. That may change if Ortiz were called up, but even then it is hard to fit every IF bat in the lineup any given night.

[Aristotelian]

57 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Henderson gives the best combination of offense and defense at the position.  Mateo is the weakest batter on the team.   Westburg and Urías are plus defenders at 2B/3B.   Hopefully, you won’t have to be reminded again why your first place Baltimore Orioles have decided this is best alignment for the team on most nights.

Have they? Frazier is starting today, Mateo the last two. I thought after the MIN series they would stick with Westburg 2B/Urias 3B for a while but they haven't. 

[RZNJ]

10 minutes ago, Alasdaire said:

 To my eyes, Gunnar's range/hands don't stand out at short. He's obviously no slouch, but we're talking about MLB shortstops here. His speed is difficult to gauge, but it would surprise me if he had more than league-average speed for a SS. And I'm not sure he has the instincts/hands of blue-chip shortstop like Ortiz.

But I am impressed by Gunnar's arm/footwork/balance. His best plays at short have involved rocketing the ball across the diamond or turning double plays by himself. I think that could be adapted to third base really well in terms of throwing guys out from foul territory and short steps in while charging dribblers/bunts.

The paradox is as you point out though that he has actually performed better at short than third. Which is why I think he needs the work there if that's going to be his ultimate landing spot. Not the end of the world, just delaying the inevitable.

Speed doesn’t necessarily equal range for an IF but Henderson’s sprint speed is in the 85th percentile of all ML players.   Probably better than average for all ML SS.  The dude can run.

[Can_of_corn]

9 minutes ago, Alasdaire said:

 To my eyes, Gunnar's range/hands don't stand out at short. He's obviously no slouch, but we're talking about MLB shortstops here. His speed is difficult to gauge, but it would surprise me if he had more than league-average speed for a SS. And I'm not sure he has the instincts/hands of blue-chip shortstop like Ortiz.

But I am impressed by Gunnar's arm/footwork/balance. His best plays at short have involved rocketing the ball across the diamond or turning double plays by himself. I think that could be adapted to third base really well in terms of throwing guys out from foul territory and short steps in while charging dribblers/bunts.

The paradox is as you point out though that he has actually performed better at short than third. Which is why I think he needs the work there if that's going to be his ultimate landing spot. Not the end of the world, just delaying the inevitable.

His speed isn't difficult to gauge.

It's 28.6 ft/s.

That puts him in a tie for 13th for ML SS.  HP to first is 4.26 seconds and he has three bolts.

 

[RZNJ]

5 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Have they? Frazier is starting today, Mateo the last two. I thought after the MIN series they would stick with Westburg 2B/Urias 3B for a while but they haven't. 

Frazier is obviously in the mix.  I meant Henderson at SS most nights.   No doubt the best defensive alignment doesn’t include Frazier.