Ben Clemens of Fangraphs: Orioles-losers at the trade deadline

[Moose Milligan]

4 minutes ago, O's84 said:

I don't think most people wanted most of those guys.  Rodon was too expensive and injury prone.  DeGrom, even more so and nobody here was agreeing with the thought of signing him through age 39.  Wacha, Taillon, and Kluber drew little enthusiasm from people here.  I don't recall about Anderson.  Bassitt was a reasonable target and would have been an upgrade.  Eovaldi was really good but got hurt recently. He should be back soon.  Those are two who drew interest by OH'ers here.  After that there's the trade market which is where we'll have to operate this offseason because of JA's penny pinching ways.

I wanted Bassitt.  Towards the end, I wanted Eovaldi, too.  Wouldn't have been thrilled about Rodon due to the injury history and while DeGrom would have been thrilling, he's an injury waiting to happen.

[NCRaven]

I suspect that the Orioles analytics department has taken a deep dive into what helps teams win in the playoffs.  In our case particularly pitchers.  Perhaps they found that a TOR pitcher isn't necessarily key in the playoffs, that other factors are more important.  Whether that's a particular level of run scoring or run prevention and how either of those is composed, I have no idea.  Also, perhaps our front office's evaluation of our own pitching differs from that of others and they believe that the current pitchers, with the additions of Flaherty and Fujinami meet the threshold for playoff success. 

I don't believe that Elias or anyone else in the organization is satisfied with just getting to the playoffs at this point.  

[Gurgi]

You only need four starters in the playoffs.  Sometimes just three if your willing to ride them like you stole them.   

It would be amazing if Means came back strong and the Orioles went Grey Rod, Means and Bradish as the top three.  

[dzorange]

40 minutes ago, O's84 said:

One last thing.  People defending Elias for not doing more because of the cost.  Elias said he took "some very big swings".  If those had connected, I wonder if some of those defenders would now be criticizing Elias for giving up too much.  Just my two cents.

Orioles fans would have complained, but I don't think the national media would.

I think most of the media personalities genuinely wanted the Orioles to make a splash because they genuinely want to see Baltimore make a push.

I think picking up Fujinami and Flaherty were very Elias type moves. Eventually, he's going to have to lift off for real. But for now this is cool with me. They HAD to add another piece to the rotation and the bullpen, and they did both without hurting their farm system.

The Orioles have overachieved until now. I don't know who they're going to get a hot streak from to keep on performing at a high level as a team. The additions of Flaherty and Fujinami give them some flexibility on the pitching side of things, and the influx of prospects (Cowser, Westburg, Ortiz, Kjerstad) and guys coming off the IL (Mountcastle, Hicks, Mullins) will hopefully give them a jolt in the lineup. Mountcastle already has.

I'm also curious what additions they make to the 'pen going forward. Givens may be an option, though I'm not getting my hopes up. DL Hall and Wells should be back. Maybe Means. If Grayson struggles, I'd love to see what he can do out of the bullpen in the postseason. Flaherty gives the O's some flexibility to shuffle guys around in the rotation and the 'pen.

 

Edited August 2, 2023 by dzorange

[Just Regular]

Here's what I thought was the interesting line:

Projecting what players might become in three years leads to systematic mis-evaluations of how important the present is at any given time. Concentrating value into windows of contention by adding at some deadlines and restocking at others is the way that teams with good process convert their farm systems into titles. The Orioles will figure it out, but I don’t think they’ve gotten the math right just yet.

The value of the present can be tough to pin - its kind of a Rohrschach if you think enough of the stars will stay.     I will say that I wonder if Mayo-Basallo developing so nicely and Gunnar-Holliday being closer to them than Adley in age means the demographic center of gravity has shifted.      The Peak Holliday teams might go higher than the Peak Adley teams.

I thought Clemens reverence for the AL East powers was too much.    Some of his argument came from the take "this might never happen again" but I think he's underestimating this nucleus' chance to have the Best AL Record in a 5-year period.

The biggest thing I worry about next year's team not having that this year's team does is a healthy Felix Bautista.    

Edited August 2, 2023 by Just Regular

[CaptainRedbeard]

This article is overvaluing the difference that a big deadline move would have made in WS chances this year. Because the odds of making the playoffs are already very high, that’s all a move would be affecting.

Even the best available SP at the deadline - Scherzer, Verlander, and Cease - wouldn’t individually move the needle more than what, 0.5-1%? And how much does the entire package of prospects required to get that pitcher cumulatively affect those prospects’ 6+ years of team control? 

It’s a fair point that in the AL East you need to be ready to pounce on those rare years that the Yankees / Red Sox are down. But I think Elias/Sig see this team as positioned to being consistently competitive for the near future, at least during the remaining 4 years of Adley’s rookie deal after this one (and hopefully longer). They should be worried about maximizing the playoff & WS odds during that whole time window, not just this season. 

If the Orioles were in the position of the Astros or especially Angels, with a weak farm system and the Angels headed for some very lean years if they don’t retain Ohtani, it makes sense to try to concentrate future value into present value this season. But they are not. They can take a longer time horizon. 

[Tryptamine]

People don't like it because you aren't guaranteed anything from year to year. Sure the Orioles have the 2nd best record in baseball right now, They're also doing it on a run differential lower than the Cubs and Padres, so it's unlikely it would be repeatable given the same circumstances next year. Who knows what happens next year. Maybe the prospects take a step forward, maybe Adley blows out an ACL, you don't know and that's why you have to value the current season. No one is saying sacrifice the future and go all in on one year, but I refuse to believe they couldn't realistically get anyone more than Jack Flaherty nor do I believe all the other GMs were standing firm on give us Holliday or nothing. They are a good team and I think it's doing them a disservice not to go out and boost their chances.

[Ripken]

Elias is obviously an idiot when you consider how little Cease and ERod were traded for.

[PeteCanes]

52 minutes ago, O's84 said:

One last thing.  People defending Elias for not doing more because of the cost.  Elias said he took "some very big swings".  If those had connected, I wonder if some of those defenders would now be criticizing Elias for giving up too much.  Just my two cents.

Your 2 cents are worth less than a plug nickel, when you put it that way

[Hallas]

14 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

This article is overvaluing the difference that a big deadline move would have made in WS chances this year. Because the odds of making the playoffs are already very high, that’s all a move would be affecting.

Even the best available SP at the deadline - Scherzer, Verlander, and Cease - wouldn’t individually move the needle more than what, 0.5-1%? And how much does the entire package of prospects required to get that pitcher cumulatively affect those prospects’ 6+ years of team control? 

It’s a fair point that in the AL East you need to be ready to pounce on those rare years that the Yankees / Red Sox are down. But I think Elias/Sig see this team as positioned to being consistently competitive for the near future, at least during the remaining 4 years of Adley’s rookie deal after this one (and hopefully longer). They should be worried about maximizing the playoff & WS odds during that whole time window, not just this season. 

If the Orioles were in the position of the Astros or especially Angels, with a weak farm system and the Angels headed for some very lean years if they don’t retain Ohtani, it makes sense to try to concentrate future value into present value this season. But they are not. They can take a longer time horizon. 

 

I think that Montgomery or Scherzer or Verlander are (more or less) 1 win better than Flaherty, and that win has a high likelihood of being significant when it comes to us being a division winner or not.  If we win the division then it basically doubles our chances of winning the WS by virtue of having one less series to play.

[Sports Guy]

16 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

People don't like it because you aren't guaranteed anything from year to year. Sure the Orioles have the 2nd best record in baseball right now, They're also doing it on a run differential lower than the Cubs and Padres, so it's unlikely it would be repeatable given the same circumstances next year. Who knows what happens next year. Maybe the prospects take a step forward, maybe Adley blows out an ACL, you don't know and that's why you have to value the current season. No one is saying sacrifice the future and go all in on one year, but I refuse to believe they couldn't realistically get anyone more than Jack Flaherty nor do I believe all the other GMs were standing firm on give us Holliday or nothing. They are a good team and I think it's doing them a disservice not to go out and boost their chances.

They could have gotten someone better than Flaherty..the question is, what was the cost to do so and how much better was that pitcher?

And did that pitcher have signs that he could easily get better, as Flaherty does?

All of these matter. People get hung up on name brands but they don’t do the proper comparison shopping.

[Tryptamine]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

They could have gotten someone better than Flaherty..the question is, what was the cost to do so and how much better was that pitcher?

And did that pitcher have signs that he could easily get better, as Flaherty does?

All of these matter. People get hung up on name brands but they don’t do the proper comparison shopping.

You're a world series contender, this is not time to buy a guy in hopes that you can fix him and make him useful in the playoffs. 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Tryptamine said:

You're a world series contender, this is not time to buy a guy in hopes that you can fix him and make him useful in the playoffs. 

Who said anything about fixing him? He has things in his stats that says he should be better.

The really good pitchers just weren’t available this year it seems.

[SilverRocket]

3 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

You're a world series contender, this is not time to buy a guy in hopes that you can fix him and make him useful in the playoffs. 

Scherzer has an ERA above 4 with a longball problem. Verlander has been good but way down from his Cy Young season last year, and his K rate is down. There are some questions with all the options on the market.

Would you have given up Joey Ortiz + Connor Norby for Verlander + cash?

[Sanity Check]

2 hours ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

"The Orioles are run by a sharp group of people; you’ll get no objection from me on that score. They’re surely aware of the perils of constantly looking to the future; it’s not a deep secret. But subconsciously, I think they might be struggling to change mental models. Constantly dreaming about what players might become in three years leads to systematic mis-evaluations of how important the present is at any given time. Concentrating value into windows of contention by adding at some deadlines and restocking at others is the way that teams with good process convert their farm systems into titles. The Orioles will figure it out, but I don’t think they’ve gotten the math right just yet."

He has an interesting point, however I don't agree with him. I think mortgaging the future on a starter that may or may not change your chances of a long playoff run is not smart. But this quote does have merit. Especially the bolded part.

2023 Trade Deadline Winners and Losers | FanGraphs Baseball

Unlike the peril of signing big dollar free agents to chase a division title, like the Yankees and Mets?  Really.

I like the peril of the Houston Astros model better.  That worked for them, and we seem to be following that roadmap.  Just my opinion.