Hays' CF Defense

[CaptainRedbeard]

What's the verdict on whether Hays can play acceptable CF defense?  His OAA has previously never lived up to the eye test for his LF/RF defense, but he's at +1 in LF this season.  That would still translate to below average CF defense, but with Cowser not looking great in CF, it's increasingly looking more like our best lineup without Mullins/Hicks is by adding Kjerstad and putting Hays in CF.

For this season, if both Mullins and Hicks come back healthy then it's a moot point.  But perhaps until then, and certainly when looking ahead to 2024 with Hicks a FA, can we get by with Hays as the backup CF?

Assuming (i) Ortiz eventually replaces Mateo and (ii) Frazier occupies the extra September bench spot but is gone in the offseason (with the other September spot a RP), that leaves just Urias and McCann locked into 2 bench spots for this year and next.  We then have 7 players (Mullins, Santander, Hays, O'Hearn, Mountcastle, Cowser, Kjerstad) for 5 starting spots across OF/1B/DH and 2 bench spots.  Either one of those players is the backup CF, or one needs to go for a backup CF. 

The options are:

1. Trade one of them (except Mullins). 
2. Keep all of them, with Hays or Cowser as backup CF.  
3. Option one of Cowser, Kjerstad, or Mountcastle to AAA. (O'Hearn will be out of options next year). Add McKenna or a different backup CF acquired through FA/trade.

The foregone conclusion seems to be that #1 is inevitable, likely Santander or perhaps O'Hearn given their free agency after 2024.  However, they have both been among our best hitters this season and, as evidenced by the Frazier move this offseason, Elias may be inclined to roster veteran players (and spend decent money doing so) that create a logjam in the interest of depth and/or avoiding relying on rookies.

So, if the Orioles don't do #1, I think #2 is preferable to #3, but only if Hays or Cowser can play a below-average but adequate CF.  If Cowser can't, can Hays?

(As to who gets shorted most on playing time against RHP if all 7 are healthy, I think the answer there may also be Hays.  Even with the big day yesterday he is now at a 108 wRC+ for this season, after 105 and 106 in the prior 2 seasons.  He's started hot both of the last 2 years and then settled as a slightly above average hitter.  If Cowser/Kjerstad can adapt to MLB pitching (still a big "if"), then they will surpass him.  Hays could also perhaps benefit from a reduced role given the injuries that plagued him in past years, although it doesn't seem that is a contributing factor this season.)

[ChosenOne21]

I've always said Hays would be one of the best 4th outfielders in baseball. If we have three outfielders better than him, we're pretty blessed. That said, he's definitely not of the defensive replacement/pinch runner/backup centerfielder mold, though I think he could be adequate in CF for a short stretch in case of injury.

Edited August 4, 2023 by ChosenOne21

[Frobby]

I think Hays is a better CF than Cowser and he’s possibly better than Hicks.  He’s not as good as McKenna.  

[banks703]

I am all for fielding the best 9 guys night-in and night-out but I don't get the posturing for sending down Cowser to bring up HK. I mean, I do get it but as we have seen with every one of the rookies this year, there is an adjustment period and they have all struggled at some point. It's silly to think that HK won't have struggles of his own upon a promotion.

Cowser has nothing more to prove in the minors and I get the shiny new toy syndrome of seeing HK mash in Norfolk but Cowser is the MUCH higher rated prospect. Had he not been promoted, with the other promotions around the league in the last month he would probably be a top 10 guy. If he's going to be a player on this team (and I think that he will), he needs to figure out how to do that at the ML level. Reassigning him to Norfolk where he will see a major drop-off in the quality of pitching isn't going to do him any favors. I think if they thought that it would, they would have already sent him down there to get right but the fact that they are giving him days off to work on things with the best hitting coaches that they have in the org I think is telling that they prefer him to be working with the guys on the O's staff vs. folks down in Norfolk.

Could that change when one or both of Mullins and Hicks return? Sure. The O's have the luxury of going with the hot hand at virtually every position outside of Catcher and thankfully Adley is pretty damn good and consistent back there. 

People also forget that Kjerstad is NOT on the 40 man. To add him, it'd mean removing someone. 

I was as critical as anyone of them not doing more before the deadline but listened to reason from folks like @Frobby who reminded us that this is year one of this competitive window. Yeah, I'd like to see them do everything that they can to try to win a WS but what they're NOT going to do is compromise 2027 or 2028 for a run in 2023. That's what Elias said himself. Bringing up a Kjerstad burns a year of service time and we know that they're not going to do that. 

[sportsfan8703]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think Hays is a better CF than Cowser and he’s possibly better than Hicks.  He’s not as good as McKenna.  

If Mullins and Hicks are still out come September 1st, then there is a good chance that we see Daz Cameron up for a bit in September.  

[Frobby]

Just now, sportsfan8703 said:

If Mullins and Hicks are still out come September 1st, then there is a good chance that we see Daz Cameron up for a bit in September.  

Well, i hope that scenario doesn’t come to pass.  I thought we were hearing that both are progressing well.  Cameron has had a solid year, and when Mullins initially got hurt, and Cowser was on the IL at the time, I thought we might see Cameron then.  That’s when they acquired Hicks.

[Aristotelian]

7 minutes ago, banks703 said:

I am all for fielding the best 9 guys night-in and night-out but I don't get the posturing for sending down Cowser to bring up HK. I mean, I do get it but as we have seen with every one of the rookies this year, there is an adjustment period and they have all struggled at some point. It's silly to think that HK won't have struggles of his own upon a promotion.

Cowser has nothing more to prove in the minors and I get the shiny new toy syndrome of seeing HK mash in Norfolk but Cowser is the MUCH higher rated prospect.

MLB has Cowser #2 and Kjerstad #4. I think if the rankings were updated today a lot of people would have Kjerstad higher. He is hitting .350/.1030 at Norfolk and unlike Cowser he has been consistent at every level since he first came back from myocarditis.

Kjerstad struggling is certainly a risk but to say he is guaranteed to struggle upon promotion is a massive overstatement. The question is whether he is more likely to struggle than Cowser. Jung and Elly are two guys who had immediate success, and for the O's Westburg has been pretty good (certainly better than Cowser). 

[banks703]

10 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

MLB has Cowser #2 and Kjerstad #4. I think if the rankings were updated today a lot of people would have Kjerstad higher. He is hitting .350/.1030 at Norfolk and unlike Cowser he has been consistent at every level since he first came back from myocarditis.

Kjerstad struggling is certainly a risk but to say he is guaranteed to struggle upon promotion is a massive overstatement. The question is whether he is more likely to struggle than Cowser. Jung and Elly are two guys who had immediate success, and for the O's Westburg has been pretty good (certainly better than Cowser). 

https://www.mlb.com/prospects

Top 100

Cowser #12

HK #35 (though the last time that I looked at this he was #40)

I'd consider that to be a pretty wide gap but HK has certainly closed it with his performance in Norfolk and recent promotions around the league. 

The rankings were recently updated. I think that it's more of a reach to suggest that a lot of people would have HK higher because of Cowser's 52 ABs in the ML than it is to suggest that HK might also struggle as MOST rookies do when they're promoted. The likelihood that HK will have struggles of his own is farrrrr greater than he won't. 

You cherrypicked my comment. You know that I was referring to the O's rookies and I didn't state that it was guaranteed that HK would struggle. I stated that it's silly to think that he won't. Which it is. 

Edited August 4, 2023 by banks703

[Aristotelian]

8 minutes ago, banks703 said:

https://www.mlb.com/prospects

Top 100

Cowser #12

HK #35 (though the last time that I looked at this he was #40)

I'd consider that to be a pretty wide gap but HK has certainly closed it with his performance in Norfolk and recent promotions around the league. 

The rankings were recently updated. I think that it's more of a reach to suggest that a lot of people would have HK higher because of Cowser's 52 ABs in the ML than it is to suggest that HK might also struggle as MOST rookies do when they're promoted. The likelihood that HK will have struggles of his own is farrrrr greater than he won't. 

You cherrypicked my comment. You know that I was referring to the O's rookies and I didn't state that it was guaranteed that HK would struggle. I stated that it's silly to think that he won't. Which it is. 

I don't consider that a wide gap at all and I don't see any reason O's rookies should be expected to struggle more so than other teams. I don't think it is silly to think he will do well, he has a very strong resume. I do not think it is guaranteed but I don't think anyone is saying that. The question is whether he is more likely than not to outperform Cowser and I think there is a very good case for Kjerstad at this point.

[banks703]

40 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

 The question is whether he is more likely than not to outperform Cowser and I think there is a very good case for Kjerstad at this point.

Based on what? Have you watched both of them hit, go about their work, prepare for games, etc? Or is it because you can google HK's numbers at Norfolk right now and see him hitting .350 in 43 games? 

From April 22 to May 14 Cowser hit .406 in Norfolk. In 37 games from April 22 until he was promoted, he hit .366. 

HK's numbers are great. I'm not taking anything away from what he's doing. It's obviously a great thing to have so many elite prospects but it's just silly for everyone to keep suggesting that the O's cut bait on Cowser over 52 ABs (64 PAs) in his first month in the big leagues, to promote Kjerstad (and lose someone else on the 40 man to do so).

Looking up stats and actually seeing what guys are doing are two very different things.  

Quote

I don't consider that a wide gap at all

 

LOL of course you don't. It's only (now) 23 spots in the top 100. Last week it was 28. So, sure, I'll give you that it's not as wide a gap as it was before the rankings were updated. 

 

Edited August 4, 2023 by banks703

[Aristotelian]

1 minute ago, banks703 said:

Based on what? Have you watched both of them hit, go about their work, prepare for games, etc? Or is it because you can google HK's numbers at Norfolk right now and see him hitting .350 in 43 games? 

From April 22 to May 14 Cowser hit .406 in Norfolk. In 37 games from April 22 until he was promoted, he hit .366. 

HK's numbers are great. I'm not taking anything away from what he's doing. It's obviously a great thing to have so many elite prospects but it's just silly for everyone to keep suggesting that the O's cut bait on Cowser over 52 ABs (64 PAs) in his first month in the big leagues, to promote Kjerstad (and lose someone else on the 40 man to do so).

Looking up stats and actually seeing what guys are doing are two very different things.  

 I have followed their stats throughout their careers. Kjerstad has been consistent at every level and has not really struggled at any point. The only time he has dropped in our internal rankings was due to health. Cowser has had ups and downs. He does have a strong overall resume and may turn out to be the better player. Just saying there is a reasonable case for Kjerstad. I did see Kjerstad in person in the AFL and of course I have seen Cowser looking completely lost in his first month of MLB, but I don't really put much stock in eye tests. 

 

[RVAOsFan]

Can you imagine a couple years ago in 2023 we would be having a debate whether or not the guy who started in center field in the all star game is good enough to start center field for the Orioles. 

[CaptainRedbeard]

This isn’t about Cowser v. Kjerstad - in fact, it’s the opposite. It’s about whether Hays can play CF effectively enough that we don’t need to devote a roster spot to a backup CF like McKenna, so that we can accommodate both Cowser and Kjerstad. 

While we have Hicks it doesn’t matter, because he’s probably a better CF than Hays and a good enough hitter. But between these choices when Mullins is out of the lineup, which is better?

1. Hays CF, Cowser LF, Kjerstad RF or DH

2. McKenna CF, Hays LF, Cowser or Kjerstad RF or DH (with the other of Cowser/Kjerstad in AAA)

I know I like #1 better. For next year certainly and for September & playoffs if we don’t have Hicks. 

[SilverRocket]

2 hours ago, banks703 said:

Bringing up a Kjerstad burns a year of service time and we know that they're not going to do that. 

Do you think Kjerstad will be left in the minors for a month next year? Bringing him up this year is equivalent to having him start on the team in 2024, right? I don't know that service time games are going to be played with him if he tears it up in spring training. Preserving ROY eligibility for the potential draft pick could be a factor though.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, SilverRocket said:

Do you think Kjerstad will be left in the minors for a month next year? Bringing him up this year is equivalent to having him start on the team in 2024, right? I don't know that service time games are going to be played with him if he tears it up in spring training. Preserving ROY eligibility for the potential draft pick could be a factor though.

It does cost a 40 man slot.  I don't think that should be a deal breaker but it is a factor.